Florida leads the South Region, but I don't think the Gators will ultimately reach the Final Four.
Instead, I'm looking down the seed line a bit for some sleepers with high offensive and defensive potential.
Read about all that and more in my 2026 NCAA Tournament South Region Preview.
South Region Favorite
Florida (+160 to win South Region)
Florida draws the top seed in what should be a highly competitive South Region, as Todd Golden’s Gators look to go back-to-back after cutting down the nets last season.
I have high hopes for the Gators, as they enter the 2026 NCAA Tournament as one of the nation’s hottest teams.
Despite losing superstar guard Walter Clayton Jr. in the offseason, the Gators are currently listed as the +160 favorite to come out of the South Region and advance to the Final Four in Indianapolis.
For a Florida bunch that heavily relied on the clutch-play of Clayton in last year’s road to glory, Golden made two massive acquisitions in the transfer portal this offseason, landing former Razorback guard Boogie Fland and former Princeton guard Xaivian Lee.
Along with his backcourt duo, Golden retained all of its frontcourt depth from 2025’s championship roster, mainly Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh. Junior forward Rueben Chinyelu is also having a breakout season.
South Region Winner
Illinois (+320 to win South Region)
Whichever team knocks off the Gators will need to have the offensive firepower to keep up.
I think Illinois is up to the task.
Illinois ranks second nationally in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric. The Illini feature a well-rounded lineup with versatility at all five spots, and they shoot the lights out, making it tough for opponents to piece together a coherent game plan. The
Freshman superstar Keaton Wagler has proven to be one of the best scorers in the country, converting on an impressive 41% of his shots from downtown while leading an offense that is knocking down 11 threes per contest.
The Illini frontcourt features a ton of size with two seven-footers in the Ivisic brothers alongside 6-foot-10 David Mirkovic. Illinois’ forwards can score inside the paint and on the perimeter, while also making a substantial impact on the opposite end of the floor as rim-protectors.
Historically, the last eight national champions in college basketball have ranked inside the top six in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Illini check the boxes of a team capable of making a run in March despite its poor finish to the season.
Illinois is battle-tested, having won over Purdue, Texas Tech, and Tennessee. The Illini also have several closely-contested defeats against the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, and UConn.
Behind the leadership of its veteran point guard, Kylan Boswell, I'm willing to take a shot on an Illinois squad with Final Four upside.
South Region Sleeper
Nebraska (+1500 to win South Region)
I’d be shocked if Nebraska actually prevailed from the South Region, but Fred Hoiberg’s Cornhuskers have been a pleasant surprise this year.
Over the course of a very difficult strength of schedule in 2026, Nebraska has taken down the likes of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan State, just to name a few.
In a Big Ten conference loaded with elite offenses, with three teams ranking inside the top-10 nationally in offensive efficiency rating, Hoiberg’s Cornhuskers are beyond battle-tested behind the nation’s seventh-ranked defense.
Nebraska boasts elite defensive prowess with an experienced lineup from top to bottom, largely featuring upperclassmen, two traits vital to winning games in March.
A likely second-round matchup between Nebraska and fifth-seeded Vanderbilt would be a great storyline featuring two teams on nobody’s radar heading into the season.
While Nebraska has the superior seed, I definitely expect the Commodores to be the more popular pick in that projected second-round matchup, given their stellar play in the SEC Tournament.
Vandy has elite guard play behind Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles, but Nebraska can win that game by controlling the pace.
Given that the 4-vs-5 matchup would be close to a coin flip with the Gators likely awaiting the winner, I think the Cornhuskers’ ceiling is probably the Sweet Sixteen. Still, they have sleeper potential.
Best First-Round Matchup
VCU vs. UNC
The sixth-seeded Tarheels are set to square off with Atlantic-10 conference champion VCU on Thursday in what I expect to be one of the most closely-contested matchups of the entire first round.
The South Region’s 11th-seeded Rams enter as a 2.5-point underdog and are fortunate to meet a short-handed North Carolina team without its superstar freshman Caleb Wilson, who suffered a season-ending hand injury five weeks ago.
Hubert Davis’ Tarheels had Final Four aspirations after an impressive three-point comeback victory over Duke in Chapel Hill, but the future NBA top-10 pick broke his thumb just a few days later. North Carolina is a different team without Wilson on the floor — the Heels are scoring nine fewer points per game without him.
Though 7-footer Henri Veesaar has stepped up big time in Wilson’s absence, this turns into a potential upset spot for VCU, as 6-foot-11 Forward Lazar Djokovic gets more of a favorable frontcourt matchup.
Martelli’s Rams are scorching, having won 16 of 17 contests heading into this matchup. They fit the mold of a potential Cinderella squad, featuring tremendous depth and shooting.
NCAA Tournament Kalshi Odds
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