If you're anything like me, your timeline has been awash with NFL Mock Drafts and projected March Madness fields the past week or so. Bracketologists and NFL draftniks are churning out updated projections by the hour.
While the NFL Draft is nearly impossible to predict, the bracketology field has become somewhat of a science.
Bracket Matrix, an online aggregator of over 180 mock brackets, has become a valuable tool for fans and bettors alike. By Selection Sunday, it’s often the case that Bracket Matrix has correctly identified 97 to 99% of the field, including each team’s seed line.
But a month out? Well, that’s anyone’s best guess because teams can play their way into or out of the field.
With that in mind, I’ve spotted a team to target in the bubble futures market. At +240, DraftKings is pricing Seton Hall at roughly a 29% implied probability — a number that feels light given its current metrics and the Pirates' schedule down the stretch.
Let's dive into my college basketball picks and my NCAAB futures for the NCAA Tournament.
College Basketball Picks, Futures
Under Kevin Willard, the Pirates became a March Madness mainstay between 2016-22. Seton Hall went dancing five times in a seven-year window and would have in 2020 had it not been for COVID.
But then Willard headed off to Maryland, and Shaheen Holloway was brought in to rebuild the program. After treading water in his debut, the Pirates won 25 games in his second season but were snubbed by the committee on Selection Sunday.
Last year was an unmitigated disaster (7-25, 2-18 Big East) for Holloway, who found himself on the hot seat.
Quietly, Holloway and the Pirates have played their way onto the bubble at 18-8 overall with eight wins in Big East play. They also took down NC State in Maui and have achieved top-50 status in EvanMiya (50), Haslametrics (49) and KenPom (48).
Seton Hall’s upcoming schedule provides a nice mix of potential wins (DePaul, Georgetown, at Xavier) and season-defining upset opportunities (at UConn, vs. St. John’s).
If they handle business and knock off the Blue Demons, Hoyas and Musketeers, the Pirates will lock up a winning season in Big East play.
They nearly upset UConn in their first meeting, drawing within one in the final 30 seconds. They played even better against St. John's before blowing a double-digit second-half lead at Madison Square Garden.
If they can beat either the Huskies or Johnnies and win a game or two in the Big East Tournament, they should find themselves on the right side of this year’s soft bubble.
It helps that Merrimack transfer Budd Clark has flashed March Madness hero potential in the past three weeks. The pint-sized playmaker is averaging 20/5/3 with two steals per game across his last six.
His handles are elite, and he eats up drop coverage by hoisting more midrange jumpers than just about any player in the country (99th percentile in volume).
His feathery touch around 15 feet also allows his teammates to crash the glass effectively, evidenced by their offensive rebounding rate (43rd nationally).
With Clark leading the way offensively, Holloway’s frontcourt has made life hell on opponents inside 10 feet.
Stephon Payne and freshman Najai Hines power the nation’s biggest block party. The Pirates reject 10.8% of opponents’ shot attempts, leading the nation in that area.
When they have friendly whistles, it can be a chore to reach 70 points against the Pirates.
The Big East has reliably produced four to five bids across the past five seasons (4.6, per Bracket Matrix), and SHU is fourth in line behind UConn (1), St. John’s (5) and Villanova (7) in the projected field, per Bracket Matrix.
I project the Pirates will need 23 wins to comfortably punch their ticket, which is achievable if they win the games they’re favored in and pull off one upset against UConn or St. John’s during the regular season or in the Big East Tournament.
Pick: Seton Hall to Make NCAA Tournament (+240 · DraftKings)
