How is it already the Elite 8?
This tournament has been fun, but March Madness always seems to fly by, and we'll send our first two teams to the Final Four on Saturday.
Let's take a look at both games, analyze the matchup and make a bet for each in our Elite 8 picks.
Iowa vs. Illinois
I fear this may be the last dance for Cinderella.
Part of what often works for Cinderella teams that make deep runs is the element of surprise, combined with the favorite taking the underdog lightly or overlooking them.
That's much less likely to happen in a conference rematch between two neighbors that don't care much for each other, and two teams that already played one another this season.
Illinois won that one by six at Iowa, but the Illini led wire-to-wire. They jumped out ahead 8-0, got it to double digits within seven minutes and controlled the game for the duration. Iowa cut it as close as four late, but Illinois' win probability never dropped below 85%.
Ben McCollum has proven to be an elite tournament coach and could have a few surprises for Illinois, but we know plenty about this matchup.
Iowa is a balanced team that adapts to its opponent, but the Hawkeyes aren't good defensively. Their one huge strength is forcing turnovers, but Illinois turns the ball over as little as any team in the nation.
When Iowa can't turn teams over, its defense suffers. The Hawkeyes are near bottom 100 in defensive effective field goal percentage, and Illinois is one of the most efficient offenses in the country.
Illinois is going to score plenty — especially on easy 2s — and the Illini should win on the glass and at the line too, so that leaves very few avenues for Iowa outside of simply hitting enough shots and matching its neighbors bucket for bucket. (That's a losing formula, by the way).
It's been a great run for Iowa, but this team is still just 2-7 this season against Sweet 16 teams, and the Hawkeyes could easily have lost either of the last two games.
The slow pace in this game could help keep things close, and McCollum is an edge against Brad Underwood, who's just 3-5 ATS in the tournament on one day of prep versus 9-3 ATS otherwise.
Illinois nearly covered this spread at Iowa and led by more throughout. This is a neutral site and Illinois is playing its best ball of the season.
I'm already riding an Illinois over Iowa exact outcome ticket at +650 heading into the Sweet 16, but I'll add Illinois -6.5 and expect the Illini to take care of business.
Pick: Illinois -6.5
Purdue vs. Arizona
This is the matchup the bracket drew up with the top two seeds, and history has this about a coin flip. In the modern tournament, one-seeds are 27-24 SU against twos in the Elite 8, and six of the last eight matchups finished within six points.
These are two schools with a huge history of heartbreak this century at this stage. Arizona hasn't been to the Final Four since 2001, and six of its last seven tourneys as a top-three seed ended in heartbreaking close losses. Purdue has its fair share of those too, and both have a bevy of upset losses.
Purdue actually has only one seed upset win in the tournament this entire century, and even that was just 10-vs-7. This would arguably be the team's biggest tournament win ever and only its second modern Final Four.
There's reason to doubt both coaches in this spot, too. Tommy Lloyd is just 4-6 ATS as a top-two seed and 5-7 ATS as a seed favorite, though he's 3-0 ATS this tournament to boost those numbers to where they are.
Matt Painter is 5-8 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later, a far cry from his pristine 23-7 ATS record the first two rounds.
Both of these teams have been nails in the regular season but struggled at this stage of the tournament, if they get there at all. That makes it tough to feel great about investing in either side.
Arizona is the better season with the far better season-long resume, but don't forget that Purdue was preseason No. 1, too.
The Boilermakers have the better offense. Arizona's defense can reach a high level, but Purdue should still find ways to score, though Braden Smith will have his hands full with Arizona's excellent perimeter defenders.
There's little question that Purdue's defense is the weak link in this game, though.
The Boilermakers rarely foul and should hold their own on the glass against a dangerous offensive rebounding team, but Arizona's offense has a high floor because it takes a ton of 2s. The numbers and matchups say the Wildcats will make those 2s here, too.
Purdue does typically give up a ton of 3s, and that's certainly not the game Arizona wants to be baited into, but if the Cats do make a few extra 3s in this one it's probably curtains.
One huge swing factor in this one could be the tempo battle. Arizona plays relatively fast, but Purdue will want to slow things way down like usual. The faster the better for Arizona.
The matchup here is pretty even, as expected for a battle of the top two seeds, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see this come down to the wire with all those past ghosts coming into play late.
I see two edges worth playing small.
The one thing I'm most confident of in this game is that Arizona will score. Purdue's defense just isn't very good and Arizona has too many weapons with guys like Brayden Burries, Koa Peat and Mo Krivas. It also has many paths to easy, low-variance 2s.
Purdue's presumed slow pace is also suppressing the total, which in turn suppresses team totals. I like Arizona team total over 79.5. Arizona has score 80+ in 26-of-37 games this season (70%), so that should hit in a win, but it could also hit in a loss where Purdue's offense hits too.
I'll also play a bet we just hit in Purdue's last game — but on the other side.
Arizona looks like the better team and I trust the Cats to get the job done in the end, but that doesn't mean it won't be close. I'll bet Arizona to win but not cover by parlaying Cats moneyline with Purdue +6.5 at +375 (HardRock).
Pick: Arizona TT Over 79.5 | Purdue +6.5 & Arizona ML Parlay +375
