The Sweet 16 is here, and it's more than a little chalky.
13 of the 16 top-four seeds are still dancing. The only remaining double-digit seed is tiny ol' Texas, which means the plucky underdog playing the role of Cinderella also happens to be the school with more than double the endowment of any other public university system.
Heck, the only team left outside of multi-bid Big Ten, Big 12, SEC or Big East is everyone's favorite conference long-shot darling … Duke.
The last time we had a Sweet 16 this chalky was exactly one year ago, when the NCAA tournament ended with all four one-seeds dancing right into the Final Four. So, will this March end the same way, or can we still find some version of Cinderella as we look for long-shot futures value in the market?
Let's take a look at each region and make a verdict on any Final Four bets, including NCAA Tournament futures and picks.
East Region
Duke is the overall No. 1 seed and odds-on favorite out East, but only three of the last 11 overall one-seeds made the Final Four and just 50% of them since the committee began naming a No. 1 overall seed in 2004.
Since Coach K took the reins at Duke, the one-seed Blue Devils are now an incredible 60-11, with seven of those 11 losses by a single bucket, averaging a Final Four berth. Duke features surefire National Player of the Year Cameron Boozer and it looks like Patrick Ngongba II will play too.
Still, this is a really tough region.
All four remaining coaches have made the Final Four, and Duke's coach — Jon Scheyer — is the only one without a national title.
Rick Pitino is an incredible 12-1 SU in the Sweet 16 lifetime and has made the Elite 8 in 57% of his 23 tournament appearances, with seven Final Fours and a pair of titles. He's also an impressive 5-5 against one-seeds.
Tom Izzo is 61-25 in March, far ahead of seed expectations, with eight Final Fours and an ungodly 26-9 SU record in games with one day prep. He's only 5-10 ATS against top-two seeds, though.
Dan Hurley is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later with a pair of national titles. He's 18-4 ATS in the tournament overall, and UConn has six titles in 18 tourney appearances in the last 25 years (even more impressive than Duke historically).
Duke is not going to win the East on pedigree alone, and its status as the best team in the tournament should be in real doubt after its poor showing on opening weekend. The Blue Devils were lucky to escape 16-seed Siena and didn't look great against TCU either.
The truth is that this team has played about 10 good minutes in each game. The defense badly misses Ngongba's impact, and he didn't look the same in 13 minutes against TCU. The offense has also lacked juice with Boozer struggling, at times, in both games. He's clearly not the same player without Ngongba by his side, and Caleb Foster's absence has been felt, too.
This the toughest region in the bracket. It wouldn't be a surprise to see any possible combination of results or any of the four emerge.
All the games should be slower-paced, which means lower-scoring games and a better chance for an underdog to stick around. UConn and St. John's have championship-level defenses. Michigan State has balance and veterans and already played Duke close once.
St. John's was preseason top-five team and has Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins to handle Boozer on the interior.
The truth is that I have no idea what will happen in this region.
Pitino's experience, bigs and defense could win out, or St. John's could struggle to score consistently and be exposed. Michigan State could dominate the glass and see Jeremy Fears Jr. carry Izzo to yet another Final Four. UConn could do the thing and go back where it now belongs.
Or Duke could do what it did all season and keep winning games at the highest level. That's certainly possible, but it should not be counted as likely and it certainly shouldn't be the odds-on favorite.
I'd rank the Final Four chances in this region Duke, UConn, Michigan State, St. John's in that order, but with none of them below 18% and none above 37%.
That implies some value on all of the non-Duke teams, particularly St. John's and UConn at +500 each, but there's a better bet.
East Region Verdict
Bet Duke NO Final Four at -105 (bet365). That prices the Blue Devils around a coin flip, whereas I have them just 37% to make. It's a bet against Duke's recent shakiness, as well as on the strength of all three opponents in this region that could take it down.
If you want to back UConn and St. John's, you can pick both at +500 for an implied +200 bet (33%), where I have them almost 46% combined. I may nibble St. John's over UConn as an exact outcome in the East at +1000 (my odds: +670).
If you do want to back those two teams, I think you can take it a step further.
We'll get to the South in a second, but I'm very likely going to like all four teams coming out of this region against any opponent out of the South — so don't stop at the East. Bet UConn +1000 and St. John's +1100 to make the final at implied +475 combined.
Pick: Duke to NOT Make the Final Four (-105)
South Region
This is the one region missing its one-seed, and bookmakers have effectively priced two-seed Houston as the new one-seed and adjusted accordingly. But history says that's a mistake.
Houston is just 1-4 SU against Sweet 16 teams this season, and that doesn't count season splits with teams like Kansas and Texas Tech that very well could have been here too.
Kelvin Sampson gets a great reputation, but his 26-9 record as a top-three seed falls well short of expectations, and even his three Final Four appearances have typically required serious luck and close escapes and usually end badly.
Sampson and Houston are 16-5 in the last five tourneys, but that includes six close escapes against teams Houston is far better than (and it should be noted that the Cougars are sub-.500 in close games this season), along with two upsets as a one-seed by four- and five-seeds.
Those nine top-three seeded Sampson teams have exited the tournament by an upset six times (67% of the time).
The Cougars get a boost, effectively hosting this region in Houston. But part of the problem is the usual formula for this team: a crazy slow pace, subpar shooting and an offense over-reliant on offensive rebounds and turnovers forced to create points.
That's a great formula for Houston racking up regular season wins by winning the math battle, but it routinely fails against top teams that can limit those positives. Illinois might be exactly that team.
The Illini are great on the glass and almost never turn it over, so goodbye Houston math advantage. Illinois also leads the league in points per possession with an awesome offense that will find ways to score on even this good Cougars defense.
Houston will have to show it can match Illinois point-for-point, and I'm not sure it can.
The other side of the bracket features a matchup no one expected in Nebraska and Iowa. The Hawkeyes are back in the Sweet 16 for the first time this century, and Nebraska hadn't even won a tournament game until last weekend.
Nebraska's defense will make life difficult on any opponent though, and this is a veteran team with a formula similar enough to Houston to give it a shot.
Iowa probably already had its one big upset, but the Hawkeyes play an upset-friendly style that could work in this region. They play a turgid pace and typically dominate the turnover battle, and those extra possessions matter even more in lower-scoring games.
Iowa also features coach Ben McCollum, who's now 35-8 SU in his last 13 tournaments. That includes four Division II titles, along with an 11/6 upset of Drake last season and now the huge 9/1 upset over Florida.
Iowa already beat Nebraska once and took it to overtime on Senior Day in Lincoln. History tells us eight- or nine-seeds that beat a one-seed effectively act as the one-seed going forward, and conference games in the tournament often play closer than expected. That game feels like a coin flip.
Either winner will be an underdog in the South final, but it's a 'dog with a real shot. Either it's another potentially tight conference game against Illinois or it's a matchup against Houston.
If Houston wins, Iowa would be playing first-to-50 and trying to win the turnover battle, or Nebraska would match Houston's defense and maybe even its fandom.
The one-seed might be gone, but that doesn't make Houston the new one-seed, nor Illinois. Seeding history tells us any eight- or nine-seed to advance this far is absolutely live to win another game or two.
They're 12-8 SU against four- and five-seeds, and four of those teams even went on to the national title game.
South Region Verdict
I like Illinois' offense best in its head-to-head matchup with Houston, and I make the Illini favorites in this region, not Houston. I have the Cougars at 30% to win the South, so that makes the bet clear.
Bet Houston NO Final Four at -138 (FanDuel), implied 58% versus my 70%. You can also play it for an even better price at 55% at Kalshi.
I do show some value on both Illinois and Iowa if you'd like to play either team. I'll sprinkle Illinois over Iowa exact South outcome at +650.
Pick: Houston to NOT Make the Final Four (55%)
West Region
Arizona has a good case as the best resume in basketball, and the Wildcats are now effectively tied for first in KenPom. Arizona plays fast (more possessions is more chances to be better!) and ranks top-five on both offense and defense. It takes a ton of 2s (lower variance!), dominates the glass and lives at the line.
This is a team with a very high floor, and one that can win even on a bad day.
That's good, because Arizona wasn't good against Utah State and, though it miraculously covered late to get to 2-0 ATS, it could very well have lost that game.
Tommy Lloyd entered the tournament 4-4 SU as one, two, two and four-seeds, which is about halfway to seed expectations. Even with these two recent covers, he's still 3-6 ATS as a top-two seed and 4-7 ATS as a seed favorite.
Arizona has also exited six of its last seven tournaments as a top-three seed in heartbreaking fashion, with no Final Four since 2001. We haven't seen a tournament winner west of Texas since Arizona last won the title in 1997.
Arizona is great, but Lloyd's tournament results — and maybe a UNC interview? — leave some reason for doubt.
Arkansas looks like a very dangerous underdog.
Since getting to Kentucky, John Calipari is now 36-12 SU in the tournament, and history says his teams basically act as a two-seed this setting. They peak at the right time regardless of the actual seed number.
Calipari is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the tournament in the last two decades as an underdog of three or more points, covering by 8.4 points per game.
Darius Acuff Jr. can be the best player on the court in any game, and Arkansas is red hot and finally rested after last week's grueling West Coast trip on short rest after winning the SEC Tournament. The Razorbacks can absolutely win another game or two.
The other half of the region features preseason No. 1 Purdue, but Matt Painter is just 5-7 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later, compared to 23-7 ATS before that. Purdue has routinely underperformed at this stage of the tournament.
The Boilermakers play slow, as always, and they also have a porous defense that can be taken advantage of by NBA talents like Acuff, Brayden Burries, Koa Peat or Dailyn Swain. Purdue can score with anyone, but its games are usually slow and close, and it can't get stops late.
Texas is the worst team left in the bracket with a porous defense itself, but don't overlook the Longhorns just because they're an 11-seed play-in team; 11-seeds have a winning record at 5-4 in the Elite 8, with four of those wins against one-seeds.
They're just 4-20 SU against two-seeds in this spot, but half of the last 20 such matchups were either within four points or won outright by the underdog.
Texas has been a dangerous underdog all tournament and already cashed our +650 Sweet 16 ticket. They also have a wildcard in Sean Miller, widely considered the best coach to never make the Final Four. He's 11-4 ATS as a tournament underdog and has a knack for keeping games close. He's a huge wildcard in a possible Elite 8 game against former team Arizona.
West Region Verdict
Arizona is the best team in the region, but Purdue has the easier Sweet 16 matchup. I price both teams about equal to come out of the region, but more importantly, I have both short of 40% because of their past foibles and tournament vulnerabilities.
Everyone expects Arizona and Purdue in the West final, but both underdogs are live here.
Arkansas is my favorite Final Four 'dog on the board at +900 (DraftKings). Calipari is very dangerous as an underdog, and Acuff can keep this red-hot run going. I price the Razorbacks closer to +525.
I'll also take a small nibble on Texas at +2000 (DraftKings), largely because of the number and history of 11-seed upsets. I have the Longhorns closer to +1300. I have it almost exactly 50/50 to get at least one of those underdogs into the Elite 8 and give us a shot.
Pick: Arkansas to Make the Final Four (+900)
Midwest Region
This is the one region where I make the one-seed an odds-on favorite.
Michigan looks like the best team in the country. Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mora and Morez Johnson Jr. are an inside trio no other college team can match. (It turns out starting three future NBA first-round big men together is a bit of a cheat code.)
Dusty May has been to the Final Four before, and Michigan has the resume, the history and the talent. The Wolverines play at a top-20 tempo with an elite offense and an even better defense, especially on the interior.
It's a team with a super high floor, as well as a monster ceiling, capable of blowing an opponent out at any time. To wit, I thought Saint Louis played an outstanding game, and the Billikens hung as long as they could, before then getting blown off the court.
Michigan has one serious flaw — its guard play, missing L.J. Cason, and its turnover margin, in particular.
Iowa State is the one team in this region built to exploit that weakness.
The Cyclones rank top-five in turnovers faced without fouling much, and that makes Iowa State a high-variance team that can score points in a landslide if it forces turnovers and piles up points in a hurry.
This team had a heap of 10-to-20 point wins and losses — home victories against Kansas and Houston, a 23-point win at Purdue — but also some ugly losses.
That makes Iowa State a dangerous underdog against even the best team, but it also makes it a vulnerable favorite. You can't beat Michigan if you don't get there, and Iowa State is especially vulnerable with Joshua Jefferson's injury status unknown.
Tennessee plays very slow and has a defense that can give the Vols a chance in any game. I'm never going to be excited to back Rick Barnes in the tournament with all his terrible ATS trends, but Tennessee is underseeded and can still win multiple games.
Alabama is like Iowa State in that it's extremely high variance.
The Tide can't defend to save their lives and typically allow a heap of 3-point attempts, but sometimes those shots don't fall. Alabama plays super fast, fast enough to throw many opponents off their game, and the offense is capable of hanging a ton of points on the scoreboard in a hurry when the shots start falling.
The Tide also dominate the offensive glass and win the possession game by taking care of the ball.
Alabama is missing Aden Holloway (and Charles Bediako?), but it's the only team other than Michigan with a modern Final Four berth in this region. Its high-variance offense means it's live to pull an upset at any time — much like it did upsetting the one-seed en route to the Final Four in 2024.
Midwest Region Verdict
This is the one region I really like the top seed in. I make Michigan the odds-on favorite, pushing it to 60% to win the Midwest. But even so, there's really no value on a Final Four or even national title bet. I did bet Yaxel Lendeborg to win Most Outstanding Player, and I still like that bet at +900 (theScore).
I like Michigan the best in this region (by far), but even so, books are underpricing Alabama. I fully expect Michigan to beat Bama by double digits and will probably even bet the Wolverines, but I also think the Tide are live to pull the upset on the right day.
I put Alabama at just under 10% to emerge from the Midwest, and those odds will skyrocket if it does survive Michigan. That makes the Crimson Tide worth a small investment at +1400 (DraftKings).
Pick: Alabama to Make the Final Four (+1400)
