The Florida State Seminoles take on the Clemson Tigers in Clemson, SC. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on The CW Network.
Clemson is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. The total is set at 143.5 points.
Here’s my Florida State vs. Clemson predictions and college basketball picks for February 21, 2026.
Florida State vs Clemson Prediction
My Pick: Over 143.5 (Play to 145)
My Florida State vs Clemson best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida State vs. Clemson Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | +400 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | -550 |
- Florida State vs Clemson spread: Clemson -9.5
- Florida State vs Clemson over/under: 143.5 points
- Florida State vs Clemson moneyline: Florida State +400, Clemson -550
Florida State vs Clemson College Basketball Betting Preview
Florida State Basketball
Florida State was 7-11 overall and off to an 0-5 start to ACC play a month ago, but it's really turned it around since under first-year head coach Luke Loucks. There were some clues early on that this team had some real juice, as the Noles lost by just two to Florida and by four to Duke.
In the past month, the Seminoles are 6-2 with three road wins, including one over Miami, with the only two losses coming against SMU and Virginia by just three points each. Florida State ranks 39th in the country in Bart Torvik during that stretch, too — much better than a handful of NCAA Tournament at-large hopefuls.
Loucks has brought a modernized style to Tallahassee, as the Noles play some of the fastest basketball in the nation. Florida State ranks 23rd nationally in tempo, per KenPom, and 11th in 3-point attempt rate, with over half of its shots coming from downtown.
This team has capable shooters, but it's been inefficient, hitting from deep at just a 31.7% clip this season.
Point guard Robert McCray V is a key cog in setting this tempo. He’s a high-usage guard and an electric off-the-dribble creator who ranks fourth in the country in assist rate. Lajae Jones and Chauncey Wiggins are the other two double-figure scorers for this team — two versatile, athletic wings who can be matchup problems.
Defensively, this group has been better lately, with top-40 defensive efficiency over the past month. Teams end up taking a ton of 3s against the Noles’ aggressive defense — nearly 45.6% of opponent shots come from deep.
The Noles are generally a high-variance team, but they definitely have real upside to compete with top squads.
Clemson Basketball
Clemson has lost three straight games but is still trending toward an NCAA Tournament appearance with a 20-7 record overall. The Tigers were favored in two of those losses — a home game vs. Virginia Tech and a road matchup at Wake Forest. They’ll look to get back to their winning ways here, as they had won 13 of 14 before this skid.
Brad Brownell retained only one key piece from last season's 27-win team, Dillon Hunter, but built a veteran roster through the portal that knows how to execute his play style. The Tigers rank 18th nationally in defensive efficiency per KenPom, and they like to keep the game in the half-court, playing at the slowest pace in the ACC.
This team wants to wear you down with strong defense and keep you off the offensive glass, ranking 10th nationally in defensive rebound rate.
The biggest knock on this team offensively is the lack of true perimeter pop. Clemson wants to play through the post and create looks at the rim, but having only one volume 3-point shooter in Jestin Porter isn't ideal. He's connecting at just a 33% clip on the season.
Clemson has a super balanced offensive attack, with RJ Godfrey leading the way at just 11.4 points per game. The Tigers have seven players averaging between one and three assists per game. It’s truly a team effort, with the whole being greater than the sum of its parts.
Florida State vs. Clemson Betting Analysis
We have a veteran Clemson team returning home after three straight losses, taking on a Florida State team on a hot streak.
This is a really interesting pace mismatch, with the third-fastest team in the league taking on the slowest. Clemson has been the better team overall this season, and playing on its home court, it’s more likely to impose its style on this game.
Florida State hasn’t lost by double digits since January 10, so it’s tempting to take the points here. I expect Clemson to generate open looks from deep against Florida State's defense, and the Tigers should shoot it at a decent clip at home.
I’d still lean toward taking the points with the Noles, but I’d rather make a play on the total here. Clemson has locked up many teams at home, but I think it'll win this one more with its offense than its defense.
My Pick: Over 143.5 (Play to 145)
