The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Iowa State Cyclones in Ames, Iowa. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Iowa State is favored by -12 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1000. The total is set at 143.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa vs. Iowa State predictions and college basketball picks for December 11, 2025.
Iowa vs Iowa State Prediction
My Pick: Iowa State -12
My Iowa vs Iowa State best bet is on the Cyclones to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa vs. Iowa State Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | +650 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | -1000 |
- Iowa vs Iowa State spread: Iowa State -12
- Iowa vs Iowa State over/under: 143.5 points
- Iowa vs Iowa State moneyline: Iowa +650, Iowa State -1000
Iowa vs Iowa State College Basketball Betting Preview
Iowa Basketball
Ben McCollum brings his signature patient efficient style to the Big Ten this season. That also means he brings that style to Cy-Hawk, the famed rivalry between Iowa and Iowa State.
Joining McCollum in Iowa City is his point guard Bennett Stirtz, an All-American candidate and under-the-radar NBA prospect.
Stirtz has already been magnificent this season, stuffing the stat sheet (18.8 PPG, 4.9 APG, 2.6 RPG on 50.5% shooting from the field, 45.1% from 3) while leading the Hawkeyes to an 8-1 record to start the new campaign.
An aggressive defense has also shined, with the Hawkeyes currently ranking fifth in the country in forced turnover rate. McCollum opted for mobile posts in Tavion Banks, Cam Manyawu and Alvaro Folgueiras, and all three can be menaces with quick hands.
Stirtz and wing Isaia Howard certainly contribute some pressure, as well.
Iowa has put the cap on top-100 teams like Maryland (0.91 points per possession), Grand Canyon (0.77 PPP) and Xavier (0.89 PPP).
Folgueiras and Cooper Koch provide excellent spacing, and if Brendan Hausen is ever able to formally crack the rotation, he would add another red-alert sniper for defenses to worry about.
Where the Hawkeyes are vulnerable is in the paint, as Banks, Folgueiras and Manyawu don't boast power-conference-level size and physicality as a unit.
Case in point: Michigan State ragdolled the Hawkeyes in the paint, shooting 59% inside the arc and grabbing more than half of its misses on the offensive glass.
Michigan State also exploited the Hawkeyes’ lack of individual creation and playmaking outside of Stirtz. He saw constant double-teams, and the Hawkeyes’ supporting cast simply couldn't take advantage.
Folgueiras is a decent passer in the frontcourt out of the short roll, but Kael Combs and Howard don't bring much playmaking at the guard spots.
Iowa State Basketball
Iowa State has been a juggernaut thus far this season, rolling opponents with a level of consistency and physical dominance that suggests T.J. Otzelberger’s program has taken another major step forward.
The Cyclones are coming off their best performance of the season, obliterating top-ranked Purdue in West Lafayette while displaying remarkable potency offensively — a key upgrade for what's typically been a defensive-minded unit.
Nowhere is that evolution more evident than in the frontcourt, where Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic have grown from strong contributors into true stars. Their combined scoring punch, versatility, playmaking and ability to stretch defenses have transformed Iowa State’s offensive ceiling.
Yet the team’s interior presence doesn’t stop there. Blake Buchanan and Dominykas Pleta – two monstrous offensive rebounders – have become essential tone-setters, earning extra possessions and hidden points through sheer effort and energy.
Still, the heartbeat of this roster remains in the backcourt, where Tamin Lipsey continues to operate with one of the best command-and-control profiles in the country. His staggering 34:4 assist-to-turnover ratio reflects both his poise and his intuitive feel for managing tempo.
Even when Lipsey missed time, Iowa State never skipped a beat thanks to breakout play from freshman Killyan Toure, whose electricity off the bounce has fortified the team’s guard depth while raising the long-term ceiling.
Meanwhile, the pairing of Jamarion Batemon and Nate Heise has provided exactly what the Cyclones need on the perimeter: reliable shooting, disciplined defense and an understanding of how to complement the stars around them.
Put together, this roster has become a complete, hardened unit – one that overwhelms opponents with layers of talent, chemistry and effort.
Jefferson’s emergence into an All-American certainly helps, but it's that combination of factors that makes Iowa State one of the most dangerous teams in college basketball.
Iowa vs. Iowa State Betting Analysis
For Iowa, getting manhandled by Michigan State holds no shame in the long run. The Spartans will do that to a lot of opponents.
Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, they now face an opponent that's arguably just as physically relentless as Sparty.
Iowa’s smaller frontcourt faces a challenging task against Jefferson, Buchanan and Pleta, who are all massive and brutish around the bucket. If Iowa gets bullied like it did in East Lansing, the Cyclones will get second chances at will.
Additionally, Iowa State’s elite ball pressure via Lipsey and Toure could wear Stirtz down and force Combs and others to create.
Iowa State’s bigs are also fully capable of hard-hedging out to half court, easily removing the ball from Stirtz’s capable hands. Folgueiras may be a vital safety valve and 4-on-3 playmaker in the short roll.
Historically, this rivalry has been dominated by the home team. Before the 2024-25 season, the home team had won eight of the last nine meetings.
However, this is a new era with McCollum taking over, and this is only the second double-digit spread between these two arch rivals in last 15 years (Fran McCaffery’s Iowa team covered easily on that one as a 13-point home favorite).
McCollum’s style profiles extremely well for an underdog, as the Hawkeyes play extremely slowly, they manufacture extra possessions via turnovers and they can hit 3s (41st nationally in 3P%).
But I fear Iowa State’s ability to turn them over and dominate the offensive glass will doom an athletically overmatched Hawkeye squad, particularly in front of a rabid Hilton Magic crowd.
I have to lay this here given the matchup and potential for a home landslide, even as my numbers question if this spread is too high.
I wouldn't take it much past -12, though.
My Pick: Iowa State -12
