The Iowa State Cyclones take on the BYU Cougars in Provo, Utah. Tip-off is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Iowa State is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is set at 155.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa State vs. BYU predictions and college basketball picks for February 21, 2026.
Iowa State vs BYU Prediction
My Pick: BYU +3.5 or Better
My Iowa State vs BYU best bet is on the Cougars to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa State vs. BYU Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 155.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 155.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
- Iowa State vs BYU spread: Iowa State -3.5
- Iowa State vs BYU over/under: 155.5 points
- Iowa State vs BYU moneyline: Iowa State -185, BYU +155
Iowa State vs BYU College Basketball Betting Preview
Last season, BYU went 14-1 straight up at home and outscored Big 12 visitors by an average of 13 points per game in Provo, yet oddsmakers are giving the Cougars +3.5 points here. That should grab bettors’ attention.
If you see BYU getting +3.5 points at home against Iowa State, your first thought might be to avoid the Cougars. Richie Saunders is out for the season, and many think the team isn’t the same. Meanwhile, Iowa State just had a huge home win over Houston, one of the biggest wins of the season.
That’s exactly why I’m backing BYU in this game.
This sets up as a classic flat spot for Iowa State. The Cyclones just emptied the tank emotionally in that Houston win. Historically, Iowa State has struggled against the spread after big victories like this, posting a 2-6 ATS record following wins over top-10 opponents in the past three seasons.
Now they travel to Provo, one of the Big 12's more difficult environments, to face a team the market is quietly downgrading. That’s value.
Let’s start with BYU’s offense. The Cougars rank ninth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Iowa State’s defense is strong too, ranking eighth.
They’re 41st in effective field goal rate and 40th in 2-point percentage. Against a Cyclones defense ranked 73rd in 2-point percentage allowed and 58th in effective field goal defense, BYU should get good shots inside the arc.
More importantly, BYU takes care of the basketball. It ranks 56th nationally in turnover rate. Iowa State’s defense thrives on creating chaos, ranking sixth in defensive turnover rate and 13th in steal rate.
On average, Iowa State forces 15 turnovers per game, but if BYU protects the ball as it has all season — turning it over just 11 or 12 times — that's three fewer possessions for Iowa State than it's used to getting from its opponents. Those extra chances add up quickly over 40 minutes. If BYU simply stays around its season average in protecting the ball, it neutralizes Iowa State’s biggest defensive strength.
Now flip it. When Iowa State has the ball, BYU is much better defensively than people realize. The Cougars rank 47th in adjusted defensive efficiency. That’s not elite, but it’s sturdy. They rank 107th in effective field goal defense and 101st in 2-point defense, which is solid across the board.
Iowa State’s offense is explosive, ranking 15th in adjusted efficiency. It's 12th in effective field goal rate and fifth in 3-point percentage. To put that in perspective, the Cyclones average about 10 made 3s per game, a major threat BYU must account for on the perimeter.
But here’s the catch: BYU doesn’t let opponents shoot comfortably from deep. It ranks 149th in 3-point percentage allowed, which might seem average, but Iowa State relies heavily on good shot opportunities from ball movement, ranking 39th in assist-to-field goal rate.
BYU’s length and size can disrupt that flow. It rank 41st in blocks and 95th in steals, meaning it plays actively.
Rebounding is a big factor. Iowa State ranks 22nd in offensive rebounding rate, while BYU is 83rd in defensive rebounding allowed. That gives the Cyclones an edge, but it’s not huge. On offense, BYU ranks 64th in offensive rebounding against an Iowa State defense ranked 79th in defensive rebounding. So, it evens out.
BYU ranks 22nd nationally in pace, while Iowa State’s defense tends to slow games down, ranking 335th in average possession length allowed. That push-and-pull often favors the home team.
If BYU can dictate even slight stretches of pace, it can prevent Iowa State from grinding this into a half-court rock fight.
And this is where the situational angle ties everything together. Iowa State just had its Super Bowl at home against Houston. Now it goes on the road to altitude against a top-10 offense.
BYU, meanwhile, has been hearing all week that it's not the same without Saunders. That narrative is baked into this line. But the numbers show BYU is still a top-10 offense, a top-50 defense and can keep up with Iowa State possession for possession.
At home, getting more than a point, and with Iowa State possibly coming off a letdown, +3.5 points feels like too much.
I’m picking BYU to keep the game close for all 40 minutes and have a real shot at winning outright. Let’s not forget the Cougs have the best player on the floor in AJ Dybantsa.
My Pick: BYU +3.5 or Better
