The Kentucky Wildcats take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Alabama is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. The total is set at 171.5 points.
Here’s my Kentucky vs. Alabama prediction and college basketball picks for January 3, 2026.
Kentucky vs Alabama Predictions, Picks
My Pick: Alabama -5.5
My Kentucky vs Alabama best bet is on the Crimson Tide to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kentucky vs. Alabama Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 171.5 -110 / -110 | +180 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 171.5 -110 / -110 | -220 |
- Kentucky vs Alabama spread: Alabama -5.5
- Kentucky vs Alabama over/under: 171.5 points
- Kentucky vs Alabama moneyline: Kentucky +180, Alabama -220
Kentucky vs Alabama Game Preview
Kentucky Wildcats: Need To Know
A week before Christmas, Kentucky was largely labeled as a good but not great college basketball team in a season when the national landscape includes multiple great teams.
That certainly left the door open for Big Blue to have a successful campaign, both in SEC play and in the Big Dance, but it kept Kentucky fans antsy, knowing the ceiling was limited. The Wildcats are a flawed team, and the flaws stand out clear as day.
After John Calipari continually built teams desperate for more outside shooting, Mark Pope came to Lexington last season. He crafted a roster that, if nothing else, could shoot from all over the floor.
One year later, through the ins and outs of modern college basketball and transfer portal machinations, Kentucky somehow has a team that can't shoot again.
The Cats rank 150th in 3-point rate and 177th in 3-point percentage, with no Wildcat making two 3s per game.
Part of that issue comes on the other end of the floor, where Kentucky's best shooters — like Collin Chandler — can't hold up their end of the defensive bargain, at least not as well as some of Pope's other options on the roster.
That leads to lineups that are clunky and misshapen, unable to do much of what Pope's teams typically do offensively. Last season, Kentucky scored .99 points per possession on pick-and-pop plays, per Hoop-Explorer. This season, that mark is just .69, a 21st-percentile outcome.
Jayden Quaintance's return from injury exacerbated that problem. He missed Kentucky's first 11 games after a knee injury at Arizona State last season. He's another non-shooter, but his energy and athleticism can be game-changing.
In his first game back, Quaintance posted 10 points, eight rebounds and two blocks in a big win over St. John's.
Pope has a roster that can win games and make a deep run in March, yet it'll be a puzzle for him to figure out the best combination of those players and a modified version of his preferred scheme to reach this team's ceiling.
Alabama Crimson Tide: Need To Know
One team that has no issues finding its offensive identity: Alabama. Former high school math teacher Nate Oats is a leading voice in the basketball analytics community, embracing the magic of the 3-point shot.
His Tide teams famously practice with a four-point line on the court, encouraging any player in the lineup to let shots rip from deep.
The Crimson Tide rank in the top-10 nationally in 3-point rate and tempo, as well as turnover rate. It's hard to turn the ball over a lot if you're running in transition and letting the first good shot fly.
The resulting attack ranks among the top five offenses in the country. Alabama's defense has been less reliable, but it's hard to quibble about a team whose only three losses have come to Purdue, Gonzaga and Arizona.
SEC play will offer some excellent tests to see whether Alabama's commitment to the run-and-gun approach is strong enough to overcome the sample-size issues of a cold-shooting night.
How To Make Kentucky vs. Alabama Picks, Best Bets
In the same way that Oats wants his offense to utilize the 3-point shot, he wants his defense to emphasize stopping the 3 on the other end of the floor.
For a team like Kentucky, that's a dangerous dance.
Kentucky doesn't shoot the 3 especially well and has plenty of players who will gladly attack off the dribble. This game will be decided by what happens once those Wildcats make their way into the lane. If they challenge Alabama rim protector Aiden Sherrell, they're likely to be sent packing.
If they can get Sherrell into foul trouble, that's huge. If not, Kentucky is likely settling for mid-range jumpers, much to Oats' liking. That's unlikely to be enough to beat a tough Tide team in Tuscaloosa.
I like Alabama's schematic advantages here enough to take the Tide laying points.
My Pick: Alabama -5.5
