There’s nothing better than the NCAA Tournament.
Read on for some of my March Madness Predictions involving three mid-major squads.
March Madness Predictions
Nebraska vs. Troy Picks
Troy takes on Nebraska in the South Region early on Thursday.
I think this is a really good coaching matchup.
Fred Hoiberg has done a tremendous job turning around Nebraska’s basketball program.
Scott Cross has been underappreciated at multiple stops, and the guy is excellent as an underdog. Evan Abrams of Action Network had a good nugget in his March Madness Betting Primer. Scott Cross went 91-72 (58% ATS) as an underdog at UT Arlington and Troy.
I’ve always liked coaches who adapt their style to their personnel. Cross was willing to speed things up in the past, but the Trojans are more than willing to slow things down — they rank sub-300th in adjusted tempo.
They also rank in the top 50 nationally in 3-point shooting allowed, which is key against Nebraska’s five-out attack.
Nebraska’s defense is excellent, and Troy could go through some scoring droughts.
But Nebraska did not finish the season playing its best basketball.
Troy won at Furman, at San Diego State, and at UAB. The Trojans can play away from home, and they’ll be a test for the Cornhuskers.
Pick: Nebraska TT Under 75.5
St. John's vs. Northern Iowa Picks
St. John’s looked great in the Big East Tournament. Rick Pitino is a college basketball legend and an outstanding coaching mind.
Still, I don’t want to assume we’ll consistently see top-end effort from St. John’s. We’ve seen plenty of squads run through their conference tournaments only to flare out in the Round of 64. Remember, the Red Storm didn’t have many marquee wins in the regular season.
The Johnnies get to the free-throw line a lot, but the Panthers are always elite at defending without fouling under Ben Jacobson. They’re also elite on the defensive glass, which is also key against the Red Storm.
Northern Iowa ranks a whopping 363rd in pace of play. The Panthers will try to muck the game up, and they’re typically good at controlling the pace, hence why Jacobson is 4-0 ATS in the Round of 64 in his career.
Northern Iowa played its best basketball late in the season once the team got healthy. While he isn’t a big scorer, Tristan Smith is a key part of the team, and his return has made a significant impact.
The Panthers can scare St. John’s.
Pick: Northern Iowa +10.5
UConn vs. Furman Picks
Can Furman repeat its comeback victory over Virginia from three years ago?
The Paladins aren’t as good as they were that year. But they’re still very well coached and could be competitive with UConn.
Bob Richey does an excellent job getting the most out of his roster, and they’re playing slower than ever, ranking 263rd nationally in adjusted tempo.
Furman’s main problem this season has been the turnovers. But if the Paladins can keep the turnover deficit to a minimum, that would go a long way in this game.
UConn ranks 322nd nationally in adjusted tempo and ninth in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Huskies won’t push the pace, while their shot-blockers will make things difficult for Cooper Bowser and the Furman frontcourt.
These larger spread games early in the NCAA Tournament have typically trended Under. I also think Furman slows the game down even further, leading to a very low-scoring ballgame.
Pick: Under 137.5
