The Providence Friars take on the Villanova Wildcats in Villanova, PA. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Villanova is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -340. The total is set at 156.5 points.
Here’s my Providence vs. Villanova prediction and college basketball picks for January 30, 2026.
Providence vs Villanova Prediction
My Pick: Providence +8.5
My Providence vs Villanova best bet is on the Friars to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Providence vs. Villanova Odds
| Providence Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 156.5 -110 / -110 | +270 |
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 156.5 -110 / -110 | -340 |
- Providence vs Villanova spread: Villanova -8.5
- Providence vs Villanova over/under: 156.5 points
- Providence vs Villanova moneyline: Providence +270, Villanova -340
Providence vs Villanova College Basketball Betting Preview
Providence and Villanova are longtime Big East rivals, facing radically different inflection points in their seasons. Villanova is a team slowly erasing the bubble from its March outlook by inching further into the projected NCAA Tournament field, while Providence is sliding the other way.
The Friars' chances of reaching the Big Dance are fading as Big East play proves treacherous for Providence.
This is a game Villanova can't lose if it wants to continue its momentum, and Providence can't lose if it wants any prayer for a meaningful March.
Providence Basketball
Providence entered Big East play 7-4, with eyes towards a postseason berth. Once conference play began, however, the Friars' season went sideways.
Providence is just 2-8 in Big East play, but the Friars have been better than the record suggests. Those eight losses include overtime losses to UConn (PC led by 11 with three minutes to play) and Marquette (PC led by three points with 12 seconds left), plus a double overtime loss to Butler.
The Friars also just played UConn tight on Tuesday night and blew a 21-point lead to Georgetown. Somewhere in that mess, Providence should've found more than two wins. KenPom ranks Providence as the second-most "unlucky" team in college basketball, based on on-court play relative to wins and losses.
On top of that "bad luck," Providence has been forced to play its last five games without Jason Edwards, the Friars' leading scorer on the season at 17 points per game.
In his absence, Providence has looked to Stefan Vaaks and Jaylin Sellers for added offense. That added burden has proven too much at times. In the five games without Edwards, Sellers is shooting 28% from deep on five attempts per game, while Vaaks is hoisting nine attempts per game at just 26%.
The bigger issues come on the defensive end, where Providence is the worst team in the Big East. Five of the Friars' last six opponents have posted 1.2 points per possession or higher, with effective field goal percentages better than 53%.
You aren't beating anyone playing like that.
Villanova Basketball
If you were looking to grade Villanova's first season under Kevin Willard, the Wildcats might still be scored as an "incomplete." That's not easy to say about a power conference team in late January, but Villanova has floated in a murky middle this season.
The Wildcats have played four teams in KenPom's top 25 and lost all four games. Against the rest of the 26th-ranked schedule in the country, Villanova is 15-1, the lone loss a home defeat to a mediocre Creighton club.
Wins away from home over Butler, Seton Hall, Wisconsin and Providence are solid, though not enough to build a fully convincing resume. The win over Wisconsin remains the Wildcats' only victory over a projected NCAA Tournament team, per Bracket Matrix.
Unless Creighton, Butler or Seton Hall work their way off the bubble, that stat has few chances to change.
Villanova still has a home date with UConn and a road trip to St. John's, but a down year for the Big East has those as the Wildcats' only remaining chances to grab a notable win.
That's not to say these Wildcats are a paper tiger. They've played well for long stretches this season.
On Saturday, Villanova pushed UConn to the brink, and the Huskies needed overtime to dispatch the Wildcats, even as two of Villanova's leading scorers on the season — Bryce Lindsay and Acaden Lewis — combined to shoot 1-of-21 from the field.
It's hard to find something this Villanova team does at an elite level. That may curse this team when facing elite opponents.
Providence vs. Villanova Betting Analysis
Luckily for Villanova, Providence far from qualifies as an elite opponent. This is a game Villanova should win, with a point spread that reflects that.
Yet I can't shake the idea that Providence is better than its record, or current losing streak suggests.
If Edwards returns from his injury to play in this game, the spread is much too high. Even if he's sidelined, Providence has been very strong as an underdog this season (7-3 ATS), especially on the road (4-1 ATS).
I like the Friars' chances to keep this within a few possessions.
My Pick: Providence +8.5
