The St. John's Red Storm play the Duke Blue Devils in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament in Washington, D.C., on Friday, March 27. Tip-off is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS.
Duke is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -285. Meanwhile, St. John's is the underdog at +6.5 with a moneyline of +230. The over/under sits at 141.5 total points.
Here’s my St. John's vs. Duke prediction and college basketball picks for Friday, March 27.
St. John's vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Under 142.5
My St. John's vs Duke best bet is on both teams to go under the total. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
St. John's vs Duke Odds
| St. John's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -108 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -112 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | -285 |
- St. John's vs Duke Spread: St. John's +6.5, Duke -6.5
- St. John's vs Duke Over/Under: 141.5 Points
- St. John's vs Duke Moneyline: St. John's +230, Duke -285
St. John's vs Duke NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
St. John's Basketball
St. John's is headed back to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999 thanks to Dylan Darling's game-winner against Kansas. As for Rick Pitino, he's coaching in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2014-15, when he made the Elite Eight at Louisville.
The Johnnies reached 30 wins for the second straight year and only the fourth time ever. With the win over Kansas, Pitino became the fifth coach in NCAA men's basketball history to win at least 30 games 10 times over their career.
How does one win at least 30 games 10 different times? Defense.
KenPom has tracked eight of the 10 30-win seasons, and in seven of them, Pitino's team had a top-10 defense. The exception was the 2005 Louisville team, which won 33 games with the 20th-best defense.
This St. John's team is one of the best at transition defense, allowing only 0.95 points per possession to rank in the 94th percentile.
Zuby Ejiofor does it all for this team. He leads the team in points (16.3), rebounds (7.3), assists (3.5) and blocks (2.2) per game while being one of four players averaging at least one steal per game (1.2).
Ejiofor is agile at 6-foot-9 and 245 pounds. Not only can he guard the rim, but he's also comfortable with guarding the perimeter.
Against Kansas, he had to switch onto Darryn Peterson and ended up coming through with a steal. Against Northern Iowa, he switched onto a shooter off a pick-and-roll and blocked the 3-point attempt.
Offensively, most everything comes around the paint for Ejiofor, whether it's finishing around the rim or getting to his hook shot. However, in his last three games, he has attempted 10 total 3s, knocking down three of them.
If Duke plays drop coverage, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ejiofor attempt a couple of triples at the top of the key.
Duke Basketball
Duke has now made three straight Sweet 16s under head coach Jon Scheyer, and this marks its 31st appearance in the second weekend.
The Blue Devils have the nation's longest winning streak (13) thanks to role players stepping up in the absence of two starters, Pat Ngongba and Caleb Foster.
Ngongba came back from injury against TCU, playing 13 minutes off the bench, while Foster is listed as a game-time decision against St. John's.
Foster, who suffered a foot injury against UNC back on March 7 and was expected to have a "slim" chance of playing in the Final Four if the Blue Devils made it that far, would give Duke an additional ball-handler against an aggressive St. John's defense that will full-court press teams.
Outside of the Florida State game, Cayden Boozer has played great in Foster's absence, averaging 13.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game in the five contests. In his last three games, Boozer has 14 assists to four turnovers.
In Duke's first 30 games of the season, it had the second-best defense in the country — but that was with everyone healthy.
In the five games without both Ngongba and Foster, Duke's defense dropped to 44th.
The defense improved against TCU thanks to Ngongba's impact. With Foster possibly playing against St John's, the defense could be even better.
St. John's vs Duke Pick, Betting Analysis
This game has the potential to be a slugfest with how both of these teams play defense.
Duke forced 17 turnovers in its win over TCU, while St. John's forced 16 with its aggressiveness against Kansas.
Ejiofor will have his work cut out for him trying to score in the post against Duke's Cam Boozer, Maliq Brown and Ngongba, while Dame Sarr roams the perimeter to prevent outside scoring.
If Foster plays, that makes Duke's defense even tougher to score against.
My Pick: Under 142.5
