The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, MS. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Tennessee is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -330. The total is set at 146.5 points.
Here’s my Tennessee vs. Mississippi State predictions and college basketball picks for February 11, 2026.
Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction
My Pick: Tennessee -7.5
My Tennessee vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Volunteers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
- Tennessee vs Mississippi State spread: Tennessee -7.5
- Tennessee vs Mississippi State over/under: 147.5 points
- Tennessee vs Mississippi State moneyline: Tennessee -330, Mississippi State +265
Tennessee vs Mississippi State College Basketball Betting Preview
Tennessee Basketball
Tennessee is coming off a tough 74-71 loss at Kentucky after blowing a 14-point halftime lead and is now 16-7 overall and 6-4 in SEC play.
I'll raise my hand and admit that I was a non-believer in Nate Ament this season. During this recent stretch, he's making me eat my words with his outstanding play, averaging 23 points per game.
After struggling from 3 to start the season, Ament has found his stroke, shooting 13-of-26 (50%) from downtown in his last six outings.
He's getting more comfortable shooting spot-up 3s, as he hit three of them at Kentucky, but his most confident 3-point shot is when he comes off an off-ball screen. For the season, he's shooting 38% off that action.
With the rise of Ament's shot, Tennessee is first in the SEC in 3-point shooting at 36.2% in conference play.
The core of a Rick Barnes' team, though, is its physicality.
The Vols are the best offensive rebounding team in the country while also having one of the better defenses, running teams off the 3-point line and keeping them off the offensive glass.
Mississippi State Basketball
Things have gotten ugly for Mississippi State after starting the season 10-5 overall and 2-0 in the SEC. It's since dropped seven of its last eight games and sits at 11-12 overall and 3-7 in the SEC.
In their last eight games, the Bulldogs' offense has been egregious.
They have an effective field goal percentage of 47.4% (317th), 29.4% free-throw rate (291st) and they're shooting 27.7% from 3 (346th).
I've said it before and I'll say it again: This is a one-man show with Josh Hubbard, who's capable of scoring points, but he normally shoots as many shots as he scores points.
Hubbard has the ball in his hands every possession and is looking to create off of the pick-and-roll, where he's 46-of-123 (37.4%) on the season.
For Mississippi State to have a chance for the upset, it'll need to be able to get stops and score the ball in transition.
Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Betting Analysis
To me, this is a similar spot as a couple of weeks ago when I faded a +7 Mississippi State team at home against Vanderbilt and the Commodores won 88-56.
Mississippi State has proven to be a decent defensive team and is the second-best team in the SEC in not allowing offensive rebounds. But when you dive into those numbers, you'll see that it's played the worst offensive rebounding teams in the SEC besides Kentucky, which had 14 of them in its 92-68 win against Mississippi State.
Ament and the rest of the Tennessee frontcourt will be too much to handle for Mississippi State on the glass, and the Vols will smother Josh Hubbard and Mississippi State's offense.
My Pick: Tennessee -7.5
