The UNLV Rebels take on the Boise State Broncos in Boise, Idaho, on Friday, Feb. 13. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on FS1.
Boise State is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -575. The total is set at 156.5 points.
Here’s my UNLV vs. Boise State prediction and college basketball picks for Friday, February 13.
UNLV vs Boise State Prediction
My Pick: Over 156.5 (Play to 157.5)
My UNLV vs Boise State best bet is on both teams to go over the total. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UNLV vs Boise State Odds
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 +100 | 156.5 -110 / -110 | +425 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -120 | 156.5 -110 / -110 | -575 |
- UNLV vs Boise State spread: Boise State -9.5
- UNLV vs Boise State over/under: 156.5 points
- UNLV vs Boise State moneyline: UNLV +425, Boise State -575
UNLV vs Boise State College Basketball Betting Preview
UNLV Basketball
UNLV comes into this game as one of the more volatile and streaky teams in the country.
Since conference play started, the Rebels have posted three wins (with one non-conference game sandwiched in between), followed by two losses, then another three wins, then four losses in a row, and finally two wins in a row heading into Friday.
So much of projecting what this team will do is anticipating which version of the team will show up on any given night.
The Rebels are an even 12-12 overall and 7-6 in conference play, which, combined with their streakiness all season, makes them a total Jekyll-and-Hyde team.
In terms of what UNLV does consistently on a nightly basis, this team loves to push the pace. The Rebels rank 34th in the country in adjusted tempo rankings, via KenPom, and have played numerous games near or above 80 possessions.
Interestingly, though, UNLV is 3-5 in games with 75-plus possessions this season. The style of play the Rebels like to utilize has backfired a decent amount this season.
They also get to the free-throw line at a top-25 rate in the country while fouling opponents at the eighth-highest rate in the country.
UNLV will try to knock Boise State off its game by playing fast in the half-court and drawing a lot of fouls, but it remains to be seen what version of the Rebels will come to play today.
Boise State Basketball
Boise State struggled throughout much of the early portion of the conference season, falling to 1-5 after an overtime loss to UNLV in the first matchup between these two teams.
However, the Broncos have completely flipped a switch since then. Boise State has won six of its last seven games to climb back above .500 in conference play. It has also made its way back onto the NCAA Tournament bubble in the process.
The biggest change in recent weeks has been a complete reversal in offensive production. The Broncos have scored 79-plus points in all six wins in that stretch, including three games of 90-plus points, with two coming in their last two games.
Before this seven-game stretch with six 79-point games, Boise State had scored 79 six times, but in a stretch of 17 games.
The Broncos now rank 63rd in offensive efficiency and 65th in defensive efficiency, making their season seem extremely balanced despite the early-season offensive struggles.
If Boise State can keep up this level offensively, it really could push into serious NCAA Tournament territory.
The Broncos' main strength to leverage against the Rebels lies at the free-throw line. Boise State gets to the free-throw line at the 14th-highest rate in the country, while UNLV fouls a ton.
Boise State also makes 77.3% of its free-throw attempts as a team, the 26th-highest team-wide percentage in the country.
The Broncos have a clear matchup advantage against UNLV in terms of getting easy points at the charity stripe, and that should become an even better advantage at home.
UNLV vs Boise State Pick, Betting Analysis
With Boise State's elite ability to get to the free-throw line and UNLV's struggles to avoid fouling opponents, expect a ton of whistles and a ton of points tonight from the charity stripe.
When these two teams matched up in early January, they combined for 52 fouls (26 each), and tonight should be no different. Even after shooting 57 combined free throws in that game, tonight could see just as many — or even more — shots from the line.
While both teams shot near their average from the free-throw line earlier in the season, they failed to exploit each other's poor 3-point defense (both rank 265th or worse in 3-point percentage defense). Boise State shot 3-for-14, and UNLV shot 7-for-21 from deep.
The free-throw numbers should stay in a similar range, and considering these two teams already played a high-scoring matchup earlier in the season with very poor shooting nights, I think the safest play here is to lean on better shooting from both sides, which will lead to a high-scoring game that cashes the over.
My Pick: Over 156.5 (Play to 157.5)
