The USC Trojans take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in University Park, PA. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on BTN.
USC is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -188. The total is set at 154.5 points.
Here’s my USC vs. Penn State predictions and college basketball picks for February 8, 2026.
USC vs Penn State Prediction
My Pick: USC ML -188 | Alijah Arenas' Points Total Over
My USC vs Penn State best bet is on the Trojans to win and Alijah Arenas' over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
USC vs. Penn State Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 154.5 -115 / -105 | -188 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 154.5 -115 / -105 | +155 |
- USC vs Penn State spread: USC -3.5
- USC vs Penn State over/under: 154.5 points
- USC vs Penn State moneyline: USC -188, Penn State +155
USC vs Penn State College Basketball Betting Preview
USC Basketball
USC enters Sunday afternoon’s Big Ten matchup with a 17-6 overall record, having won three of its last four contests.
After a disappointing 2024-25 debut, Trojans head coach Eric Musselman is on a great track to securing an NCAA Tournament berth in his second season in L.A.
In his five-year tenure at Arkansas, Musselman earned a reputation as one of the best recruiters in college basketball. In his first offseason in Los Angeles, the former Razorbacks head coach lived up to the hype, securing some big names in the freshman class, on top of some key transfer portal additions.
Musselman landed five-star shooting guard Alijah Arenas, the son of three-time NBA All-Star Gilbert Arenas. In a shocking series of events, the 13th-ranked player in the class was badly injured in a car accident, putting his future at USC in serious jeopardy.
Fortunately for the Trojans, Arenas made a full recovery after missing the first three months of the season. The 6-foot-6 talent is coming off a massive 29-point performance in a six-point victory over Indiana.
Alongside Arenas, USC’s backcourt features former Auburn star Chad Baker-Mazara. The 6-foot-7 guard has made headlines as a 26-year old senior and has certainly hushed the critics, posting over 18 points per game in his first 23 contests.
Senior forward Ezra Ausar is also having a spectacular season for Musselman’s offense, scoring 16 points per game, along with six rebounds.
While the Trojans are averaging 83 points per game, they rank just 70th in the country in offensive efficiency, largely due to a severe turnover problem.
On the other end of the floor, the Trojans rank 40th in the country in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Both Ausar and 6-foot-10 sophomore forward Jacob Cofie have served as spectacular rim protectors, making it very difficult to find clean looks near the basket.
If USC is to maintain its tournament resume over the final six weeks of the season, it has to win the games it is favored in, like Sunday’s matchup on the road at Penn State. The Trojans are 0-4 versus Quad 1 opponents and could definitely use a ranked win to add to their NCAA Tournament resume, as well.
Penn State Basketball
After a spectacular 8-1 start to the season, the Nittany Lions are 2-11 over their last 13 games, having just ended an eight-game losing skid with a close two-point home victory over Minnesota on Sunday.
Penn State enters its Big Ten battle with USC on a full week of rest in what is an absolute must-win game.
Nittany Lions head coach Mike Rhoades is in his third season in State College after an impressive tenure at VCU, consisting of three NCAA Tournament appearances. Rhoades failed to reach the Big Dance in his first two years at Penn State and is well on his way to missing three consecutive tournaments.
Rhoades’ bunch has posted an atrocious 1-10 conference record this season.
The Nittany Lions' offense is scoring 76 points per game this season, ranking outside the top 170 in the country. Penn State’s backcourt has actually been fairly impressive for a largely mediocre offense.
Leading the charge is 6-foot-3 freshman point guard Kayden Mingo. In his collegiate season debut, Mingo is posting just over 14 points per game, in addition to five assists on average. Alongside Mingo, 6-foot-5 guard Freddie Dilione V isn't far behind, scoring 13.9 points per game over the course of this season.
On the offensive end of the floor, the Nittany Lions' frontcourt has been atrocious without a single forward posting double-figure scoring efforts. Penn State’s offense ranks outside the top 80 in the country in offensive efficiency according to Haslametrics, a very concerning metric for a team that's won just two of its last 13 games.
Rhoades’ defense was a staple of his successful run as head coach for VCU, frequently implementing unrelenting pressure in the full court to force turnovers and offensive transition opportunities.
Rhoades’ Rams ranked inside the top 20 in both defensive efficiency and forced turnover percentage for three of his five seasons coaching in the Atlantic 10.
Penn State ranks an abysmal 230th in the country in defense efficiency, according to KenPom. For a head coach hired for his defensive-minded trapping schemes, the Big Ten learning curve has been pretty noticeable.
Rhoades will undoubtedly be on the hot seat this offseason, making the final five weeks of his 2025-26 campaign even more significant.
USC vs. Penn State Betting Analysis
Sunday afternoon’s Big Ten clash has major implications for both Penn State and USC. While the Nittany Lions need far more than just a victory on Sunday, Musselman’s Trojans need to capitalize on these conference road games to maintain their spot at the top of the bubble.
Despite Penn State’s lackluster defensive efforts throughout Big Ten play, I don't feel great about laying points on the Trojans to cover on the road, where they've been far less reliable this season.
I'll be backing USC ML to win outright on Sunday afternoon; also, for freshman superstar Alijah Arenas to build upon his spectacular 29-point effort and exceed his points total while the market remains lower on him after the accident.
My Pick: USC ML -188 | Alijah Arenas' Points Total Over
