2019 College Football Conference Championship Games: Scenarios, Schedule, Odds, Bowl Eligibility

2019 College Football Conference Championship Games: Scenarios, Schedule, Odds, Bowl Eligibility article feature image

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck and wide receiver Tyler Johnson

  • College football conference championship games are fast approaching, and many are already set after Week 13.
  • We break down the remaining scenarios for each conference and project point spreads for the conference title games.

Heading into the final weekend of the college football regular season, I thought I’d summarize the division scenarios and bowl eligibility picture for each conference to help you handicap this week’s games.

We’ll also project every point spread using our betting power ratings.

Conference Championship Scenarios & Schedule

Updated 9 a.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 24.

Information below updated after Week 13


Cincinnati has clinched the AAC East, and the West will come down to this weekend’s meeting between Memphis and Cincy.

Memphis has the leg up as the Tigers have wins over both SMU and Navy, so they can win the division by beating the Bearcats. Navy needs to beat Houston this weekend and hope Memphis loses.

  • Clinched bowl eligibility: Memphis, SMU, Navy, Cincinnati. Temple, UCF, Tulane
  • Can’t get to six wins: ECU, UConn, Tulsa, Houston, South Florida


The Atlantic division is easy: Clemson clinched it weeks ago and will be playing in the ACC title game no matter what happens the rest of the year.

The Coastal division is also pretty clear now. It will come down to Friday’s game between Virginia and Virginia Tech.,

  • Clinched bowl eligibility: Clemson, Louisville, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Miami
  • Need a win to become bowl eligible: UNC, Boston College
  • Can’t get to six wins: NC State, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Duke

Big Ten

Ohio State clinched the Big Ten East with a win over Penn State, while the West will come down to Wisconsin at Minnesota this weekend. The Badgers are a 2-point favorite.

  • Clinched bowl eligibility: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois
  • Need a win to become bowl eligible: Michigan State, Nebraska
  • Can’t get to six wins: Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue

Big 12

Baylor and Oklahoma each won last week, clinching their spots before the final game of the regular season.

  • Clinched bowl eligibility: Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
  • Need a win for bowl eligibility: TCU
  • Can’t get to six wins: Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech

Conference USA

Florida Atlantic controls its own path to the East title, with a one-game lead over Western Kentucky and Marshall. It has the tiebreaker over WKU, but not Marshall, so FAU needs to beat Southern Miss this weekend to guarantee itself a spot. Marshall hosts FIU and needs a win and FAU loss.

The West is a mess with three 5-2 teams at the top.

  • La Tech hosts UTSA, in what should be a win for the Bulldogs even without their starting quarterback.
  • Southern Miss needs to win at Florida Atlantic.
  • UAB is at North Texas, which lost to Rice last week to lose a shot at bowl eligibility.

These teams all beat each other — UAB beat La Tech which beat Southern Miss which beat UAB. So unless all three win or lose this weekend, the tiebreaker will be head-to-head.

  • Clinched bowl eligibility: Marshall, WKU, La. Tech, Southern Miss., UAB, Charlotte, FIU
  • Can’t get to six wins: ODU, Rice, UTEP, North Texas, UTSA


Miami Ohio has already wrapped up the East division. And the West will come down to the two teams tied at the top: Western Michigan or Central Michigan.

Since WMU beat CMU earlier this season, the Broncos just need to win at Northern Illinois on Tuesday to clinch the division. If they lose, CMU could win the division with a home win over Toledo next Friday.

  • Clinched bowl eligibility: Miami Ohio, WMU, CMU, EMU, Toledo, Buffalo
  • Need a win to become bowl eligible: Kent State, Ohio
  • Can’t get to six wins: Akron, Bowling Green, NIU, Ball State

Mountain West

Hawaii clinched the West with a win over San Diego State, while Boise clinched its division with a win over Utah State.

Our power ratings make the Broncos a 14.5-point favorite at home against Hawaii.

  • Clinched bowl eligibility: Boise State, Air Force, Utah State, San Diego State, Hawaii, Nevada, Wyoming
  • Can’t get to six wins: Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, Fresno State, San Jose State


Oregon had already clinched the North before losing to Arizona State and Utah can clinch the South by winning out in two games as significant favorites at Arizona and then at home against Colorado. The Utes got the first one.

We should ultimately get an Oregon-Utah Pac 12 championship. However, if the Utes somehow stumble, USC could win the division.

  • Clinched bowl eligibility: Oregon, Utah, USC, Washington, Arizona State, Washington State, Cal
  • Need a win for bowl eligibility: Oregon State, Colorado
  • Can’t get to six wins: Stanford, UCLA, Arizona

In true Pac-12 fashion, every single team is either already bowl eligible or can still become bowl eligible.


Georgia has already clinched the East division but still obviously has motivation to win out for its college football playoff aspirations.

LSU clinched the West by beating Arkansas.

We make the Tigers a 4-point favorite for the SEC Championship Game.

  • Clinched bowl eligibility: LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Kentucky
  • Need a win to become bowl eligible: Mississippi State
  • Can’t get to six wins: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Ole Miss, South Carolina

Sun Belt

Appalachian State and UL Lafayette clinched their respective divisions and will meet for the conference title. Our power ratings make that game a pick’em.

  • Clinched bowl eligibility: ULL, App State, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State
  • Need a win to become bowl eligible: Troy, ULM
  • Can’t get to six wins: Texas State, South Alabama, Coastal Carolina

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