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The Heisman Trophy is rarely an award that's won wire-to-wire.
In the past 20 seasons, only two players, Ohio State's Troy Smith and Oregon's Marcus Mariota, have entered the season as a favorite and gone on to hoist the bronze trophy in New York City.
Co-favorite Arch Manning has proven how difficult it is to live up to preseason expectations, playing his way out of contention.
The preseason contender who has validated all of the offseason hype is Jeremiah Smith. Thanks to eight touchdowns in his past three games, Smith has settled into the prohibitive favorite position (-220).
But only three full-time wide receivers have ever won the award — four if you count Johnny Rodgers. Even legends like Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald couldn’t get it done despite putting up gaudy numbers.
Complicating matters for Smith is the fact that he may not finish the season as the nation’s leader in receiving yards and touchdowns.
Oregon State’s dynamic freshman Jesse Legree has taken the nation by storm and is on pace to finish ahead of Smith in two “triple crown” categories.
So, if Smith falters down the stretch or is overshadowed by a pint-sized playmaker in the Pac-12, who could break late and overtake Smith down the stretch?
Let's take a look at my midseason Heisman Trophy picks and college football predictions for the rest of the 2026 season.
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Keelon Russell to Win Heisman Trophy (+2000)
Alabama’s Keelon Russell checks all the Heisman boxes. He’s a dynamic dual-threat, equally lethal through the air (third in QBR) as he is on the ground.
He’s leading a wildly explosive offense that has generated 19 plays of 30-plus yards from scrimmage (fifth).
These are the kind of plays that end up on a Heisman sizzle reel. And by virtue of being in the thick of the SEC title race, Russell will receive ample attention in the next six weeks.
Four of the last five Heisman winners to come out of the SEC have played in their conference title game, and Alabama is the second likeliest team to do so, trailing only Georgia.
What this means is that Russell will have spotlight opportunities to post big numbers while creating highlight “Heisman Moments.”
When you blend that with his current market price, he’s an undervalued asset to have in your Heisman portfolio.
Bear Bachmeier to Win Heisman Trophy (+17500)
Last season, the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year resided in Provo, but it wasn’t Bear Bachmeier. Running back LJ Martin racked up over 1,500 all-purpose yards and 12 touchdowns while leading the Cougars to the Big 12 title game.
The 2026 season has been far less kind to Martin, who's now on the shelf for at least another month following an ankle injury. His absence has thrust Bachmeier into the spotlight, and the young passer is responding.
Last week against Iowa State, the Cougars struggled to run the football. Brigham Young’s running back-by-committee approach generated just 54 yards.
Luckily for BYU, toting the rock is Bear’s specialty, and he came to the rescue with 109 yards on just nine carries. He also tossed in 329 yards through the air.
But this long shot will sink or swim on Saturday. BYU is hosting Notre Dame at LaVell Edwards Stadium, making it the first top-10 matchup ever played on its home turf.
The last time BYU defeated a top-two team at home was in 1990, when the Cougars upset No. 1 Miami. That win led to BYU quarterback Ty Detmer winning the Heisman Trophy.
If Bear sparks the upset over the second-ranked Irish, he’ll wake up on Sunday morning as a viable Heisman candidate, likely in the 15-1 or 20-1 range, making his penny-stock pricing worthy of a small investment this week.
