Welcome to our weekly Havoc Rankings, where the volatility of offenses and defenses will be graded for potential wagering.
New Mexico continues to be the clubhouse leader in creating chaos thanks to 12 interceptions this season.
Air Force, meanwhile, has a slight lead over Notre Dame as the safest offense in terms of Havoc Allowed. The Falcons have yet to lose a fumble while allowing just 11 tackles for loss in 366 offensive plays.
For those unfamiliar, Havoc is the collection of stats that can derail offensive momentum on the defensive side of the ball, including tackles for loss, pass breakups, forced fumbles, interceptions and sacks.
Havoc allowed, meanwhile, is a stat used to quantify an offense's ability to avoid chaos that creates a negative play. Offenses that are elite in Havoc allowed have a low number of fumbles, interceptions and tackles for loss allowed.
Let's take a look at our college football picks for Mississippi State vs. LSU and Week 7 Havoc Rankings for the upcoming week.
College Football Picks, Havoc Rankings
Mississippi State vs. LSU Odds
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -112 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -108 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -535 |
One of the larger discrepancies in Havoc this week comes in Death Valley, where LSU ranks as the seventh-most chaotic defense.
The Tigers hold a top-20 rank in tackles for loss and passes defensed, a combination of interceptions and pass breakups.
Led by edge Princewill Umanmielen, the Tigers also boast a top-10 pass rush and continue to haunt opposing quarterbacks in passing downs.
The aggressiveness should pay off for defensive coordinator Blake Baker in Week 7 against a Mississippi State team coming off a bye week.
The Bulldogs will come off a bye week with a trip to Baton Rouge.
Mississippi State was humbled on offense against Alabama in Week 5, surrendering 21 pressures and six sacks. Quarterback Kamario Taylor crumbled under duress, recording two interceptions and three turnover-worthy plays.
The health of Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell could be news in the late-week SEC Availability Report after both suffered lower-body injuries.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project LSU as just an 11-point favorite, but the Havoc matchup on the field shows a larger advantage for the Tigers.
Mississippi State’s key weapon on offense has been wide receiver Anthony Evans III, but a tough assignment against LSU's coverage awaits.
Tigers safety Tamarcus Cooley and linebacker TJ Dottery are the second- and third-ranked coverage defenders of all players in FBS, per PFF.
Pick: LSU -14 or Better
