NCAAF Odds, Picks for App State vs Wyoming

If there was an award for the best Group of Five matchup of the week, this game would get it.

Appalachian State heads to the Rocky Mountains to play the Wyoming Cowboys in a battle of 2-1 squads.

Both teams have looked like contenders in their respective conferences through three games.

These are two good teams meeting up in Laramie, so let's take a look at how this game shakes out from a betting perspective.

Appalachian State is off to another good start, and the offense is leading the charge. The Mountaineers are averaging just over 40 points per game and have scored at least 34 points in each contest.

Running back Nate Noel has powered the offense and has rushed for over 100 yards in three straight games. In total, he's tallied 435 yards and four touchdowns.

Coupled with quarterback Joey Aguilar — who's thrown for 690 yards and nine touchdowns — App State is multidimensional on offense and capable of competing against really good teams. Just ask the Tar Heels.

Conversely, the Mountaineers have room to grow defensively. North Carolina torched them to the tune of 319 rushing yards, and even FCS Gardner-Webb was able to rack up 365 total yards.

Wyoming isn't the type of team to pile up gaudy offensive numbers, but it will run the ball downhill consistently, and that could be bad news for an App State defense that Action Analytics ranks 130th in rush success.

Under head coach Craig Bohl, the Cowboys have been the epitome of a hard-nosed football program. Wyoming leans into its running game and defense, and while that hasn't resulted in any Mountain West championships, it has led the program to five bowl games.

The Cowboys' road loss to Texas last Saturday showed this team's legitimacy. That game was tied at 10 through three quarters before the Longhorns pulled away, but Wyoming still forced four punts and limited Quinn Ewers to 52% completions.

Oh, and the Cowboys did that with a backup quarterback, which further illustrates how tough of a team they are.

Starting quarterback Andrew Peasley practiced this week but was listed as questionable, so there's a good chance Evan Svoboda will play.

Coach Bohl said he felt fine with Svoboda playing, which makes sense because Wyoming is a run-first offense anyway. The Cowboys have rushed for 496 yards and have four players with more than 100 rushing yards.

All-America kicker John Hoyland gives Wyoming another advantage. Hoyland has looked the part this season, making all 12 of his kicks (8 PATs, 4 FGs), including two 56-yard field goals.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Appalachian State and Wyoming match up statistically:

Appalachian State Offense vs. Wyoming Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	80	48
Line Yards	7	86
Pass Success	33	85
Havoc	38	35
Finishing Drives	54	61
Quality Drives	38	100

Wyoming Offense vs. Appalachian State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	103	130
Line Yards	105	132
Pass Success	87	48
Havoc	86	89
Finishing Drives	91	87
Quality Drives	71	85

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	63	90
PFF Coverage	15	42
Special Teams SP+	53	37
Middle 8	21	93
Seconds per Play	25.2 (33)	30.3 (116)
Rush Rate	58.1% (36)	60.8% (23)

The betting markets are favoring the Cowboys by 2.5 or 3 points, and that feels about right, as App State is facing an uphill battle when it comes to stopping Wyoming on the ground.

Additionally, the Laramie weather forecast predicts winds from 25 to 35 mph. That could be a huge challenge for the Mountaineers' offense, but the Cowboys' run-first attack is perfect for that weather.

I expect Wyoming to control the clock in a windy environment.

If the Cowboys stick to their brand of football, they should be able to win and cover.