College football Week 11 is finally upon us, which means it's time to dive into a couple of underdogs to bet on the moneyline.
Our Group of 6 experts from the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, came through with picks for Wyoming vs. Colorado State and Western Kentucky vs. Nevada on Saturday night.
When parlayed together, these two Group of 6 'dogs pay out at over 4-1.
Let's take a look at our NCAAF picks and college football predictions in our Group of 6 moneyline underdog parlay for Week 1.
NCAAF Picks, ML Underdog Parlay
- Wyoming ML +135 vs. Colorado State
- Nevada ML +120 vs. Western Kentucky
Parlay Odds: +450 (BetMGM)
Wyoming +135 vs. Colorado State
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
By Joshua Nunn
Wyoming blew out Colorado State, 28-0, last year, and I like that look again.
Both programs are in transition, but Wyoming clearly upgraded its offense with new offensive coordinator Christian Taylor, who should make the attack more dynamic and more fun.
The running back room is a real strength. Samuel Harris and Markel Holman give them two reliable ball-carriers.
The tight end group, featuring Jake Wilson, Kyle Frendt and Tyler Siddons, should help in both the run game and as safety valves in the pass game.
The offensive line should be healthier and more consistent this year. The unit was up-and-down last season but still allowed only 19 sacks.
Defensively, Wyoming has been steady. The Cowboys played a ton of snaps last year because the offense couldn’t sustain drives, but the unit was generally good, and a few FCS transfers should help the front.
The defensive line should remain tough and the safeties bring experience, so I expect this defense to show up.
On the other sideline, I like what Jim Mora Jr. is doing at Colorado State. He’s the kind of coach who can turn a program around quickly, but I wouldn’t bet on an immediate flip in Week 1.
The Rams will lean on the run in 12- and 13-personnel, with Mel Brown and Durell Robinson doing most of the work in the backfield. Tight end Juice Vereen is also a potential difference-maker in short-yardage and red-zone spots.
The quarterback situation gives me pause, though. Hauss Hejny hasn’t played a ton and has battled injuries, so he may need time to knock off the rust.
Colorado State retained defensive coordinator Tyson Summers, who was the interim head coach last year, and I expect the defense to play with more grit and heart in this rivalry setting. They were rough last season, but I think we'll see improvement in effort and physicality.
Ultimately, Wyoming has the better quarterback in Tyler Hughes, a more reliable defense and incoming pieces that should help keep it competitive throughout games.
I still think the Pokes are underrated in league play. They look like a bowl team and should be competitive late, so I like Wyoming’s chances in this one.
Nevada +120 vs. Western Kentucky
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 52.5 -105o / -112u | -145 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 52.5 -105o / -112u | +120 |
I'm taking Nevada +120 against Western Kentucky. This is more of an anti–Hilltoppers play — a team I’ve liked for years — but I’m not buying what WKU is bringing this week.
Bodie Reeder is now calling plays after a rough two years at Middle Tennessee. That alone raises a red flag.
There’s also been a real talent drain at the skill spots. Jerreth Sterns and Malachi Corley aren't walking into that receiving room. K.D. Hutchinson is the alpha, but he’s small at 5-foot-8 and 185 pounds, and weirdly, he wasn’t even on the depth chart they released.
Is he inactive? If he plays, he’s not a proven game-breaker. In fact, he’s never had a 90-yard receiving game against an FBS opponent despite four years of opportunities.
Rodney Tisdale Jr. will serve as the starting quarterback for the Tops, but he has had turnover issues. He might develop, but the offensive line won’t help him. WKU essentially gutted its starting five up front, so I don’t see this offense clicking immediately.
On the other side, Nevada has the ingredients to be a quality offense. It’s a new system, but quarterback Carter Jones finished strong as a true freshman.
Wide receiver Damien Morgan is coming up from the FCS and should be a nice shiftier slot option.
New offensive coordinator Brett Bartolone is a Mike Leach protege who was a freshman All‑American under Leach at Washington State back in 2012, so there’s upside as the season progresses. How much of that shows up in Week 1 is the question.
Where WKU is most vulnerable is through the air. Its pass rush trended toward nonexistence last year and has fallen off over the past three seasons.
The cornerbacks are also inexperienced. If Nevada throws 35-40 times and lets the chips fall, that feels like the right game plan.
I’ll take the Wolf Pack at +120 and expect them to attack the Hilltoppers through the air.
