The Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the UL Monroe Warhawks in Monroe, LA. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
ULM is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -120. The total is set at 55 points.
Here’s my Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 27, 2025.
Arkansas State vs UL Monroe Prediction
- Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe Pick: UL Monroe ML -120
My UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State best bet is on the Warhawks moneyline. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Arkansas State vs UL Monroe Odds
| Arkansas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| UL Monroe Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -120 |
- Arkansas State vs UL Monroe point spread: UL Monroe -1.5
- Arkansas State vs UL Monroe over/under: 55 points
- Arkansas State vs UL Monroe moneyline: Arkansas St +100, UL Monroe -120
Arkansas State vs UL Monroe Preview
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview
There was no question Arkansas State was in a down spot last week on the road at Kennesaw State, the smallest environment in FBS, after playing up against Power Four-Level Arkansas and hosting Iowa State in recent weeks.
The Red Wolves were out of conference and had to feel like they played a lot better against Iowa State than the final score would indicate. So, losing that game to Kennesaw really wasn’t that surprising to me given the circumstances.
What was concerning, however, was how badly Arkansas State was getting whipped early on by Kennesaw State and how the Red Wolves completely failed to show up defensively.
Kennesaw State scored on all three possessions in the first quarter and if not for second quarter mistakes resulting in being stopped on downs inside the red zone and a fumble on the one-yard line, Kennesaw State would've blown the game wide open.
This conference game will be a great indicator for this Red Wolves group on how the rest of their season could end up going. If they drop this one the wheels could fall off quickly.
UL Monroe Warhawks Betting Preview
UL Monroe was also on the road last week against an emerging UTEP team that some thought might take a step up this year in C-USA play.
The Warhawks were touchdown underdogs in this one, but UL Monroe took advantage of UTEP mistakes in the first half to build a commanding 24-7 lead at the break.
UTEP had three drives cross midfield, which resulted in zero points scored, and even after mounting a ferocious comeback in the fourth quarter, UL Monroe rose to the occasion defensively and forced a pair of late game interceptions to seal the victory.
The offense was carried by the ground game, which really got going nicely. UL Monroe averaged six yards per carry and Braylon McReynolds ran really well off-tackle.
The Warhawks continue to be run heavy, but they should be able to find success on the ground at home this week against a Red Wolves defense that's allowing nearly 5.5 yards per carry on the ground this season.
UL Monroe started so hot last year and was one of the more surprising stories of college football in 2024 during the first half of the season.
With a regular season win total set at just 1.5, UL Monroe started 5-1, and this team was thinking about locking into a bowl game and potentially more. Then the crash came and ULM didn't win again.
There were several frustrating losses during the six-game losing streak, and one of them came in this matchup, where UL Monroe was defeated 28-21.
Arkansas State vs UL Monroe Pick, Betting Analysis
It’s been 15 years in the making that this matchup has been completely dominated by Arkansas State. Did you know, that dating back to 2009, Arkansas State has won and covered 15 straight games in this series? The streak stops this week.
I'm backing UL Monroe on the moneyline, with the best price currently available at DraftKings at -115.
We saw UL Monroe start to get its ground game rolling last week, which will be critical in this matchup as the Warhawks should feast on the ground against this Arkansas State defense, which is 134th in Defensive EPA Per Rush allowed and 115th nationally in Rush Play Explosiveness surrendered.
For the season, Arkansas State is giving up 233 yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry against FBS competition.
Arkansas State has also struggled situationally on defense as the Red Wolves are allowing 53% of third down conversions against them to be successful and have allowed touchdowns on 77% of trips inside the 20-yard line.
UL Monroe has been efficient in the red zone so far this season, converting 6-of-7 attempts. With some newly found explosiveness in the run game, I'm led to believe it can gash Arkansas State on the ground.
Red Wolves quarterback Jaylen Raynor is an exceptional talent, but he doesn’t have a lot of help around him, and his performance has suffered against FBS competition.
He's completing 60% of his passes, but he's averaging just 193 yards per game with just three touchdown passes in those three games.
Arkansas State thrives on gaining explosive plays in the pass game. While UL Monroe gave that up against Alabama, it did a much better job allowing just three explosive pass plays in 50 attempts against the Miners.
With the UL Monroe coverage unit grading out in the top half of the Sun Belt, I expect the throwing windows to be a little tighter here. Raynor will have to hold onto the ball a little longer, which could result in sacks or negative plays, something Arkansas State has a propensity to give up.
This is such a massive game for UL Monroe, one it certainly had circled in the summer as a “play-up” spot. I'm backing the Warhawks at home and fading the Red Wolves' defense, which I don’t think we've seen the worst of.
Pick: UL Monroe ML -120
