Welcome to the Group of Six installment of our regular-season win total series.
With the season inching closer — college football will be played next month — we will take a deep dive into the rosters, coaching changes, schedule breakdowns, situational spots and more.
The G6 has paid the price more than any other division of football with the unintended consequences of the transfer portal. High roster turnover, coaching changes and a widening talent gap between the P4 and G6 have made it harder and harder for these teams to compete on a national level.
Many teams are just trying to keep their heads above water — even if they had a stellar 2025 season.
So, which G6 win totals still hold value? Let's dive into my college football picks and my NCAAF win totals for the upcoming season.
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Welcome to our Group of 6 win totals preview. To navigate directly to a specific team section, simply click on a logo above.
Missouri State Bears
Win Total: 4.5 (+120o / -152u)
Missouri State was quite intentional during its process of moving up from FCS to FBS, starting with a program rebuild under former head coach Bobby Petrino.
Despite the university's athletic success being primarily driven by the men's basketball program, the administration at Missouri State was ready to make the jump.
Petrino saw his team win a share of the conference title in 2021, securing the Bears' first back-to-back trips to the FCS Playoffs since 1990.
Ryan Beard took over after the 2022 season and guided Missouri State through the transition. Despite 2024 being a transition year and the team seemingly having nothing to play for, the Bears started 8-2 with close losses to FCS power Montana and Ball State in a five-point game.
The building blocks were there for a team ready to move up.
The 2025 season started with a blowout loss at USC, where the Bears surrendered 73 points and 597 total yards of offense, but Missouri State was stunningly competitive after the fact, winning two of its next three nonconference games.
After a close loss against conference favorite Western Kentucky, the Bears won five games in a row and had a shot at the conference title before dropping their last two games.
However, Beard has since taken the job at Coastal Carolina, allowing Casey Woods to come in despite not having any prior head-coaching experience.
Quarterback Jacob Clark, who ended his career as the all-time second-leading passer at Missouri State, also graduated. The Bears lose a 1,000-yard rusher, three of their top four receivers and all five along the offensive line from last year's offense as well.
With a new era coming, Henry Belin IV transferred in from Duke after spending several years as a backup. He'll battle with former UTEP signal-caller Skyler Locklear.
Whoever wins the job will have to learn a new offense and work behind an inexperienced offensive line that returns just one FBS start.
The offensive line is the most concerning unit on the field this season. Last year, Missouri State averaged just 112 rushing yards per game, and the line gave up 112 tackles for loss and 52 sacks, the worst mark in the country.
We're getting a mix of transfer talent coming in, along with three guys who were buried down in the depth chart in 2025 returning. But learning a new system and having a significant lack of experience is going to give the offensive line a challenge week after week.
Breezy Dubar transfers in at running back from Boise State, and Ramone Green Jr. returns after running for 278 yards last season.
The receivers are led by Jmariyae Robinson, who caught 44 passes for 632 yards in 2025. G6 and FCS transfers will fill out the two-deep, but the unit is inexperienced.
We should see more usage out of the tight ends and maybe even the occasional fullback this year while the offense implements a new system.
The defense is also going through a full rebuild, as Jack Curtis comes over as defensive coordinator after spending three years as a defensive analyst at Auburn.
Missouri State regularly had one of the worst defenses in the Missouri Valley Football Conference at the FCS level, and it looked like this bunch was well on its way to becoming that in its inaugural FBS season after allowing 73 points in the opener.
However, the stop unit ended up playing really well over the next nine weeks, never allowing more than 28 points while putting some decent pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
The D-line is a complete rebuild heading into 2026, as Missouri State loses its top eight defensive linemen from last season. The projected starting platoon is undersized and not likely to generate a drive-stopping pass rush.
Linebacker Jared Lloyd is back, as is Dylan Dixson, who flexes between backer and the secondary.
Dixson can cover a tight end, running back or receiver in pass coverage and can stick his nose in and support stopping the run. He will be a fun player to watch this year.
The secondary will likely to see a drop in production with three starters lost and less of a pass rush up front.
Christian Ford returns, but three newcomers from the FCS, Kent State and JUCO ranks are really going to have to figure it out quickly, or this pass defense might end up looking like the unit we thought we were getting last year.
Special teams weren't a strength for Missouri State, as kicker Yousef Obeid hit just 14-of-22 field goals, and only 40% of his kickoffs went for touchbacks.
Punter Stewart McDonald averaged just 34.7 yards per punt net last year, and the return units were weak. Missouri State will use two special teams coordinators, including Woods' father, Sparky.
The schedule is brutal; there's no way around it.
The nonconference portion requires trips to College Station and Dallas to take on Texas A&M and SMU, respectively. Marshall comes to Springfield, playing with revenge from a loss last year, and the Herd are going to be a significantly improved team.
Because CUSA plays its games during the week in October and Missouri State will have had its bye week before conference play starts, the schedule timeline compresses. The Bears will play four games in 19 days from Oct. 8-27. Those opponents include Western Kentucky, Kennesaw State and Delaware, with two of those tougher games being played on the road.
Home games against Sam Houston and New Mexico State are winnable, but the way the schedule closes provides significant challenges.
The last two opponents are Jacksonville State and Liberty, two teams who will be vying for the conference title and should find themselves 7.5-point favorites or more.
In fact, I project Missouri State to be a touchdown or greater underdog in eight games this season while being favored in just three games overall.
Eleven of the top 15 tacklers are gone from last year's defense, which is likely due for some significant regression. The offense, meanwhile, will struggle to generate success at the line of scrimmage.
The Bears overperformed and were an extreme outlier last year. But with the coaching change, roster turnover and the schedule set up how it is, I think we see struggles this year in Springfield.
Pick: Missouri State Under 4.5 Wins (-152)
North Texas Mean Green
Win Total: 6.5 (+154o / -200u)
North Texas is coming off its greatest season in program history.
The Mean Green went 11-1 during the regular season and were playing for a conference championship and a trip to the College Football Playoff.
The offense was absolutely electrifying all season, averaging 512 yards and 45 points per game, highlighted by quarterback Drew Mestemaker's 4,379 yards and 34 touchdowns through the air.
North Texas scored 49 points or more eight times last year, and the defense made great strides during the season.
But ultimately, North Texas failed its two biggest tests of the season badly, resulting in ugly losses to USF and Tulane.
Head coach Eric Morris accepted the open job at Oklahoma State, taking offensive coordinator Sean Brophy and defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity with him, along with nearly two dozen players from North Texas.
Neal Brown comes in, and while the cupboards aren't completely empty, they were left quite bare. Not one starting player returns, leaving North Texas to replace 68% of last year's production while facing a more difficult schedule.
The offense will see a quarterback battle run deep into fall camp, as Tayven Jackson and Chaston Ditta transfer in to battle Chris Jimerson Jr.
Running back Jahiem White portals in to receive the bulk of the carries at running back after a quality stint at West Virginia. Jayden Becks should get some carries as well as the only running back who played last season who remains on the roster.
North Texas loses its top 11 receivers from last season, so Corri Milliner, Justin Stevenson and Josiah Martin transfer in seeking starting positions.
Dalton Carnes also figures to get some time in the slot, but this receiving group has a lot to prove given who they lost.
The offensive line is a full reset, as starting center Chandler Strong is the only one in the bunch who has been a starter consistently. Three P4 cast-offs should get some time but the unit overall is unproven and will have work to do.
Defensively, I felt that North Texas underachieved last season. Cassity came over from Sam Houston along with a half-dozen starters from a feisty Bearkats defense, but it just never looked the way it should have last season.
The sack numbers were middling, and UNT allowed five yards per carry on the ground. Seven of the top eight on the defensive line are gone, but the one who remains is Terrell Washington, who will start at tackle.
Three transfers round out the front. David Onuoha is a unique player who can play linebacker or put his finger in the ground and rush off the edge.
There's very little experience among the linebackers as starters, although Aaron Alexander and Zakye Barker have played over the last four years.
The secondary is inexperienced and will be breaking in transfers from Wofford, McNeese State, Arkansas and Baylor while breaking in a new defensive coordinator.
The schedule will be a major challenge for North Texas this season, with three brutal games right off the bat. The Mean Green open at Indiana, followed by a home date with UNLV before going to San Marcos to face Texas State.
After an FCS game, conference play opens up with a road battle at Tulsa on just five days' rest before coming home to face Charlotte.
After the bye week, a road game at Navy awaits North Texas, and then FAU comes to town, where the Mean Green again have a short five-day recovery window. That will not be easy on the defense after facing Navy's offensive scheme and then turning around and prepping for FAU.
Rice comes in off a bye, and after that, North Texas will have back-to-back road games against UTSA and Tulane. UAB at home is the last game on the schedule.
North Texas will have to face its three toughest conference opponents all on the road. Going to Indiana and Texas State also won't be easy.
Facing Tulsa and FAU on short weeks complicates things as well.
I have the Mean Green favored in five games this season, but I honestly don't know if they win that many games. The roster turnover is significant, and UNT won't be nearly as explosive offensively as it has been over the last three seasons.
Brown should field a competitive team, and the hire could work out over the next couple of years, but I think we see the Mean Green take a major step back this season.
I bet this one early, and the juice has now moved fairly substantially, but I'm OK laying up to -200. I just don't see a path to seven wins for North Texas this season. I would say 5-7 would be a successful mark for Brown in Year 1.
Pick: North Texas Under 6.5 Wins (-200)
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Northern Illinois Huskies
Win Total: 3.5 (-136o / +105u)
The amount of change that Northern Illinois has had to endure this offseason is enough to make anyone go crazy, but changing conferences, figuring out how to prep for 11 new opponents and navigating a late-stage coaching change have made this offseason incredibly tumultuous.
Thomas Hammock had done a really nice job in DeKalb, but he departed late in the offseason process to become a position coach in the NFL. Rob Harley was promoted on an interim basis this year after serving as the defensive coordinator last year.
He took over after Signing Day and has worked to get settled as the head coach while keeping the roster together.
Offensive coordinator Quinn Sanders is back for Year 2. He was a head coach at the D-II level before coming over last season. We were expecting a much more uptempo offense with significantly more passing concepts deployed, and it just never manifested itself last season.
We saw the going get tough, and NIU reverted right back to a run-heavy approach, running the ball on 68% of its offensive snaps.
NIU added Tony Petersen this season as a co-OC, so it'll be interesting to see how these two work together to try to get the offense moving in the right direction. There's a chance that conflicting ideology and power struggle between the two OCs create a tough offensive dynamic.
Quarterback Josh Holst bolted to the FCS level after throwing for 689 yards with four passing touchdowns last season. NIU is planning on former Arkansas Pine-Bluff signal-caller Jalen Macon and returning sophomore Brady Davidson battling deep into fall camp to secure the starting quarterback position.
Telly Johnson Jr. is back for another year in the backfield, and he was fairly consistent and explosive in the MAC last season.
NIU needs a second- and third-string running back to emerge, as Johnson hasn't shown to be the complete workhorse back many teams covet. He had more than 20 rushing attempts just once last season.
DeAree Rogers and George Dimopoulos are nice receiving talents, but I still question whether or not Northern Illinois has a complete game-changer at receiver at the G6 level.
Pass-catching tight ends haven't been featured regularly, as NIU has had only one tight end with more than 15 catches in a season once over the last six years. Weapons need to emerge.
The offensive line sees several players depart, with just 18 career FBS starts returning. Landon Hron is back after starting at center last season. He'll anchor the offensive line, but the remaining four players are young and unproven.
The defense is going to be a struggle, as NIU doesn't return one starter from last year's stop unit. The Huskies struggled so badly when it came to creating Havoc and negative plays, ending the season with just 14 sacks and 43 tackles for loss.
Converted tight end Jay'shon Thomas will likely log snaps at defensive end, playing across from Kole Sneed, who was at the FCS level with St. Thomas last year.
Two inexperienced redshirt freshmen will log time along the interior of the defensive line, and a pair of D-II transfers will be called on to step up.
Most of the linebacker production is also gone with NIU losing four of its top five linebackers from last year. JUCO, D-II and FCS transfers were plucked to fill the void, but there's serious concern about the depth and how these guys are going to hold up given the uptick in competition.
If you can imagine it getting worse, the secondary loses its top five performers from last season, and six non-FBS transfers will be tasked with trying to contain the opposition in a league where passing is much more prevalent than in the MAC.
I really worry about how this defense is going to hold up given the mix and variety of offensive schemes it's going to face.
The schedule is also undoubtedly tough.
The Huskies open at Iowa in a game they're currently 31-point underdogs in. There's an FCS opponent on the schedule, but unfortunately for NIU, it draws last year's FCS national runner-up in Illinois State. The Redbirds have plenty of talent coming back, and I project that this game will be priced within a touchdown.
Northern Illinois has played four FCS opponents over the last four seasons, and three of those games came down to the last possession. That's not an assured win.
The nonconference portion of the schedule concludes with back-to-back road trips to Arizona and Georgia State.
After a bye week, NIU opens conference play with Air Force coming to town. The Huskies haven't played a service academy in 15 years, and this current staff has zero experience defending against triple-option schemes.
Immediately after that game, NIU has to go to Wyoming to play at the highest FBS elevation at 7,300 feet above sea level.
Hawaii comes to town following this game. That's one to watch because I'm not sure Northern Illinois is equipped defensively to defend Hawaii's offensive system.
Back-to-back road games at UNLV and San Jose State create situations with taxing travel, and NIU will be underdogs in both, along with the road finale at North Dakota State.
Hosting Nevada and UTEP will provide the Huskies their best opportunities for wins in conference play, but both of those programs have entered a desperate status, and each really needs to make a bowl game this season.
I won't be surprised if Nevada and UTEP are fighting and battling late in the season, trying to notch win No. 6 in an attempt to start building some program momentum.
You're getting a lot thrown at you this year as an NIU supporter. With new opponents, new travel situations, a new coach and roster turnover, this situation is rough.
There's not an easy game on the schedule, and too many unknowns exist on defense to expect any improvement from what we saw last year.
The offense is lacking clear direction, and the introduction of a new co-OC could muddy the waters. There's not a true FBS-level quarterback on the roster, and playmakers on the outside need to emerge.
I'm betting that this season goes sideways quickly, and NIU experiences a really tough first season in the Mountain West.
Pick: Northern Illinois Under 3.5 Wins (+105)
Ohio Bobcats
Win Total: 6.5 (-150o / +120u)
Ohio will be experiencing some transition this fall, as the Bobcats will be on their third head coach in as many seasons, this time with a new offensive signal-caller as well.
John Hauser was named head coach after Brian Smith was shown the door due to an off-the-field misconduct violation that stunned many within the program.
Quarterback Parker Navarro also departs after a pair of brilliant seasons in Athens, leaving 2026 with much more uncertainty than what Ohio is accustomed to facing.
Hauser was the defensive coordinator at Ohio over the last couple of seasons and has spent more than a decade in the MAC. The rest of the staff remains intact after an impressive 9-4 season last year, which was capped off by a victory over UNLV in the Frisco Bowl.
I do think this program is in good hands long-term, but this upcoming year might be one where we see the Bobs take a step back in the MAC.
Navarro was such a dude at the quarterback position. He made so many creative plays, often using heroics to wiggle out of trouble. His raw athleticism and ability to extend plays aided Ohio in scoring points despite a lack of playmakers on the outside.
His absence will be felt as the reins get handed over to either Nick Poulos, who has paid his dues and waited patiently for an opportunity, or Matt Vezza, who transfers in from the FCS.
Bruising running back Sieh Bangura, who ran for 1,392 yards and 15 touchdowns, departs, as do all five along an offensive line that paved the way for Ohio to average 5.3 yards per carry last season.
This offense has taken on such a mold since Tim Albin took over in 2021, having migrated from a high-flying passing offense to a group that uses multiple tight ends and runs the ball 64% of the time.
However, the cornerstone pieces are being replaced by unproven or less productive players.
The offensive line will be a work in progress, but I expect the rushing production to taper off, so more will be put on the shoulders of the quarterback.
Ohio has a long lineage of successful quarterbacks, from Tyler Tettleton to Nathan and Kurtis Rourke and Navarro, but they don't have a player anywhere close to that this season.
Whoever wins the job will be protected by an offensive line that has zero career FBS starts under its belt. Three big-framed tight ends also transferred out, so Ohio really needs playmakers to emerge.
The defense was the identity of the team in 2024. That unit propelled Ohio when it made its 2024 MAC Championship run, but there has been a slide in overall production that might continue into 2026.
Last year, the run defense was significantly less effective. Ohio allowed 4.4 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per play, both way up from the previous year.
Three starters from the defensive line are gone, and while Nehemiah Dukes returns after a productive 2025 season, Ohio is banking on lower-level transfers to fill the void along the defensive front.
Linebacker will be the strength of the team, as Jack Fries and Michael Molnar return. The Bobs also see FCS talent infused with Eli Thompson coming in from Holy Cross at nickelback.
The secondary will be anchored by three players who were in the two-deep last year, with Kendall Bannister, JT Haskins and DJ Walker taking on bigger roles.
The schedule is tough early, as Ohio opens up with a road trip to Lincoln to take on Nebraska, followed by a home bout with Jacksonville State before a road game at South Alabama.
MAC play features home games against Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan, sandwiching a tricky road game out in Cal against conference newcomer Sacramento State.
The "Battle of the Bricks" is on the road this season, as Ohio has to go to Miami (OH). The Bobcats then close with a home game against Toledo.
The Bobcats were far from dominant last season despite having a core nucleus of dependable and experienced players. Five of their nine wins came by one score, and they relied heavily on Navarro and Bangura to bail them out of trouble.
I think 2026 is a year in which we see the new staff establish themselves. Ohio should find some pieces to build its team around looking forward to 2027, but I think it will be a struggle when it comes to making a bowl game.
With what this team brings back and the schedule it faces, I don't see a path to winning eight games. Given the pricing and the vig, I like the alternate under 7.5 currently priced at -180.
Pick: Ohio Under 7.5 Wins (-180)
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Sacramento State Hornets
Win Total: 5.5 (+144o / -190u)
Sacramento State has had quite the offseason after replacing former head coach Brennan Marion, who left to become the offensive coordinator at Colorado.
In comes Alonzo Carter, who worked under Brent Brennan at San Jose State and Arizona. Carter worked quickly to assemble his coaching staff in hopes of a potential move up to FBS in the near future.
Sacramento State went through a full recruiting cycle with Carter, who recruited talent while preparing to play as an FCS independent, but the administration made the move to FBS, where the Hornets will compete in the MAC.
Sacramento State will be installing a new offense for the third consecutive season, migrating away from the run-heavy "Go-Go" offense and installing a more traditional system.
Carson Conklin comes back at quarterback after a year at Fresno State. He will battle with former Idaho State backup Jackson Sharman and New Mexico State transfer Jaylen Patterson, but Conklin figures to get the call.
Two former FCS running backs and two JUCO transfers enter and will compete for carries in the running back room, along with holdover Jamar Curtis, who played in four games last season.
Sac State will use short, quick receivers in the slot this season, and Raiden Brown and Matt Coleman will likely be the main beneficiaries. Kenyon Shabazz is also a JUCO transfer to watch at wide receiver.
Tight end Jordan Williams is back as the only returning starter on offense for the Hornets.
The offensive line will play a big role in determining how much success the Hornets have at the FBS level this season. Four JUCO guys transfer in with three FCS players who played occasionally at their previous stops, but this line is not experienced and could struggle some with elevated levels of competition.
Last year, Sac State played its best football in the first two weeks of the season, surrendering 20 points each to South Dakota State and Nevada, with both games being played on the road.
The Hornets surrendered 30 points per game in Big Sky play last season and will be switching to a 3-3-5 scheme in 2026.
More pressure will be put on the linebackers to make plays, so Darson Jeanty, who started two seasons at Lafayette, and Derek Houston, who has started for two seasons here, will be important players to watch.
The D-line undergoes a full rebuild with a pair of FBS transfers figuring to secure time in the two-deep alongside Xavier Williams.
The secondary loses all four starters from last year's group that struggled at times against the pass-heavy teams they faced in the Big Sky. The Hornets' cornerbacks are big, physical players, but the safeties give up some size.
There's very little FBS experience in the secondary, and I worry about the depth of this group holding up over a full season against FBS opponents.
Sac State is also breaking in a new punter, and both return specialists from last season are gone. Kicker Grant Meadors returns after putting up a long of 42 yards.
The Hornets are breaking in a new special teams coach, so it'll be interesting to see how these units adjust with so many new faces on the team in 2026.
The schedule is going to test the Hornets early, with a conference road trip to Eastern Michigan to open the season in Week 0. Sac State is listed as an 8.5-point underdog in that game, telling us where Vegas sees this team in the grand scheme of the MAC.
The Hornets should have no issues with their FCS opponent. In fact, if it doesn't look overly great against EMU, their game against Mississippi Valley State probably provides a nice ATS betting opportunity on the Hornets.
Back-to-back games against Fresno State and North Dakota State will likely wear this defense down, as both of those teams are physical, tough-nosed units that are going to run the ball plenty.
Games against UMass, Kent State and Ball State have to be considered winnable, but I have Sacramento State as an 8.5-point underdog or greater in eight games this season while being favored only three times.
The Hornets have to pull three significant upsets to make a bowl game this year, and I just don't see it happening.
Pick: Sacramento State Under 5.5 Wins (-190)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Win Total: 3.5 (-150o / +120u)
Southern Miss has really struggled as a program post-COVID, with the 7-6 season in 2022 being a complete outlier during the Will Hall tenure.
Hall was let go, and Charles Huff was hired last offseason to clean up the mess fresh off a Sun Belt Championship run at Marshall.
Several coaches and players from that Marshall team followed Huff to Hattiesburg, and the Golden Eagles elevated from SBC bottom-feeder to a conference title contender. At 5-0 in league play and 7-2 overall, USM had several opportunities to lock up the West Division but failed to do so, going 0-3 against Texas State, South Alabama and Troy.
Huff hit the road to Memphis, and Blake Anderson was named head coach shortly before the bowl game.
This offseason has been rough on the Golden Eagles, as the influx of transfer talent Huff brought in has vacated the team. Now, only one starter from last year's surprise squad remains.
New offensive and defensive coordinators are implementing new systems, and the roster composite talent rankings are way down.
Ethan Hampton will battle Landry Lyddy for the starting quarterback job after bouncing around the FBS, most notably playing at Northern Illinois.
Both players could be considered serviceable but below average in the Sun Belt this season. Neither possesses the dynamic playmaking ability that we saw from Braylon Braxton a season ago.
Robert Briggs is the top returning running back, and he should split carries this season with Brandon Hood, who transfers in from UMass.
The ground attack was not as dynamic as I anticipated last season. Southern Miss averaged just 3.7 yards per carry with the production tapering off in the second half of the season.
The top nine pass-catchers from last year depart, and while there are some transfers with potential, this is a far cry from the explosive and experienced receiving corps that Southern Miss had last season.
The offensive line is a full rebuild. Four starters are gone, and the one who remains, Broderick Roman, is moving from center to right guard. Both projected starting tackles have very little experience, and without a mobile quarterback, I expect the Havoc numbers against this offensive line to increase.
Defensively, Southern Miss loses 20 of its top 21 tacklers from last season, as the two-deep roster is entirely made up of new players.
FCS transfers from Campbell, Southeast Missouri State and Towson are vying for starting roles, along with Jeffery Rush, who played sparingly at Ole Miss last year.
Depth is a concern, and I worry about this front holding up as the season progresses.
Mathis Haygood is the most experienced linebacker on the team, and he was a rotational player last year. Avery Sledge could emerge after logging some snaps last season, and Andrew Martin transfers in from Stetson, which is a non-scholarship FCS school out of the Pioneer Football League.
There's a real chance this linebacker group struggles with depth and getting organized, as there are just so many inexperienced players coming in looking for reps.
The secondary sees nine players depart, and there's a serious lack of size across the starting platoon this season. Landon Sylvie comes in after being a rotational player at SEMO, and Michael Robinson III played some at UConn but was never relied upon in the clutch.
New defensive coordinator Joe Bolden has his work cut out for himself this season. I would guess this defense struggles badly this first year.
Field-goal kicking was also a major problem last year, as Southern Miss had two players splitting time, and they combined to hit 14-of-22 field goals with four missed kicks in the final three games.
The Golden Eagles are undecided at punter, but Dusty Zimmer transfers in after playing Australian rules football and Reed Harradine returns.
Southern Miss had some decent explosiveness out of the return game last year, but both the kick returner and punt returner are gone. A weapon needs to emerge for Southern Miss in the return game.
The schedule grades out as my fourth-toughest Sun Belt schedule in 2026.
Southern Miss draws both James Madison and Old Dominion out of the SBC East while also facing Troy and Louisiana Tech on the road. A road game at UL Monroe is sandwiched between games against Louisiana and JMU, and road games at Auburn and Tulane in the nonconference will find Southern Miss as a sizable underdog.
Overall, I have Southern Miss favored once this season: in the opener against FCS Alcorn State.
I project the Golden Eagles as underdogs of 7 points or more nine times this season. I expect this team to look nothing like the group they rolled out onto the field last season.
With the transfer portal constantly pulling talent from G6 teams and extreme roster turnover year after year, the result can be wild swings in performance from season to season. I think we're due to see that here with Southern Miss.
Anderson will do a good job with this program long-term if he chooses to stick around long enough to see it through, but this is going to be a year of struggles with very few wins.
Pick: Southern Miss Under 3.5 Wins (+120)
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UConn Huskies
Win Total: 5.5 (-146o / +115u)
The UConn coaching job done by Jim Mora was nothing short of remarkable. The Huskies went 1-11 in 2021 with losses to UMass, Holy Cross and Purdue, 49-0.
Mora then rebuilt the roster, instantly making UConn more competitive. The result was a 6-6 regular season in 2022, which saw the Huskies qualify for a bowl game for the first time since 2015.
After back-to-back 9-4 seasons, Mora left for Colorado State. UConn replaced him former Toledo head coach Jason Candle, who had a successful run at the Glass Bowl.
Candle consistently recruited the top talent in the MAC year after year but will now have to navigate a full roster turnover while implementing new systems.
Joe Fagnano was such a playmaker at quarterback for UConn, and his heroic efforts were the springboard for 18 wins over the last two seasons. He vacates the position, and Kalieb Osborne (Toledo) and Jake Merklinger (Tennessee) transfer in to battle it out for the starting QB job.
The running back room has talented transfers come in to replace the production lost by Cam Edwards, who ran for 1,226 yards and 15 touchdowns last year.
Those additions include Kenji Christian, who ran for over 500 yards last season at Toledo, Central Michigan's Trey Cornist and former West Virginia back Cyncir Bowers.
The wide receiver losses are massive. UConn sees seven of its top eight pass-catchers depart. Eleven receivers are competing for eight spots, including five Toledo reserves and the returning Shamar Porter.
The offensive line has some decent talent, but none of those players have played together, and none of the projected transfers were full-time starters at the FBS level.
The line's drop-off won't be as significant as one might think, but without an experienced quarterback, the sack numbers are going to go up significantly from the 16 sacks surrendered last season.
The defense will undergo a full-blown reload at all three levels. In fact, UConn doesn't return a single starter from last year's stop unit.
Esean Carter is a stud in the middle of the defensive line and will play a big role after coming over from Toledo, where he was a first-team All-MAC selection last year.
Anas Luqman played at Ohio last year and will be a solid pass-rusher for the Huskies, and Andrew Laurich started nine games for Colorado State.
Linebackers K'von Sherman and Luke Murphy have plenty of MAC experience, and John Lista comes in from the Ivy League to provide solid depth.
The secondary was decimated by the portal, and 10 transfers enter hoping to clean up the mess.
The cornerbacks are young, and neither projected starter has a lot of experience. In fact, we could end up seeing two or three redshirt freshmen playing substantial snaps early in the season.
Tyler McKinstry was a reserve at Toledo but did play a decent amount and is projected to start at safety.
Candle worked hard at Toledo to improve his special teams, and he did so over the last three years compared to when he took over.
UConn brings in a transfer kicker from Ole Miss in Mike Baker, who has never attempted a field goal. Tommy Warner is an Australian-style punter who played at the D-II level last season. Finally, all of the coverage units are going to be rebuilt from scratch.
This phase will be an adventure this year.
UConn was so successful in 2024 while feasting on a weak schedule with a six-game homestand. The Huskies again had a manageable schedule last season and won five games by one score while also dropping three games in overtime.
This year, the schedule is much more difficult, and many of the opponents are desperate to make a bowl game in an effort to establish some program momentum.
I have UConn projected to be favored in just three games all season against Lafayette, Southern Miss and UMass. Home games against Maryland, Syracuse and UNC will be very difficult, as will trips to Miami (OH), Temple and Air Force.
UConn scheduled the two best teams in the Sun Belt Conference, hosting both James Madison and Old Dominion late in the season. The schedule concludes with an end-of-the-year trip to Laramie, Wyoming to face the Cowboys.
While I project 5.6 wins, I really struggle to see where those wins come from. Maryland, Syracuse and UNC are all ACC teams that can't afford to overlook any opponents. And despite playing at home, UConn will be an underdog to both ODU and JMU.
Playing at Temple and having to go out west twice at elevation will be taxing on this team.
No one in the MAC did less with more than Candle, who consistently had the most talent in the conference but found ways to lose games as a large favorite.
The rigors of an independent schedule, along with uncertainty in this roster, lead me to believe UConn will struggle to make a bowl game.
Circa has the best odds on this one, and at under 6.5 (-125), this is my favorite G6 win total available anywhere.
I would be completely stunned if UConn wins seven games this year, and pulling off four outright upsets will be required to do so. I think 4-5 wins is the most likely outcome in what will amount to a rebuilding season for the Huskies.
Pick: UConn Under 5.5 Wins (+115)
Utah State Aggies
Win Total: 5.5 (+144o/ -190u)
Utah State has suffered a slide as a program over the last four years. It was really in a tough position after firing Blake Anderson prior to the start of the 2024 season.
After deciding that interim head coach Nate Dreiling was not going to be the permanent solution, Utah State hired long-time FBS coach Bronco Mendenhall in an attempt to plug the holes in the boat.
Mendenhall did a great job working with what he had on this roster, and the Aggies opened 5-0 ATS while playing very competitive football on the road in two SEC environments.
The season resulted in a bowl appearance, and this offseason provided much more roster consistency in the wake of changing conferences.
Utah State will now compete in the new Pac-12, along with Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Texas State, Washington State and Oregon State.
Last season, the offense was decimated via graduation and the transfer portal, returning just one starter. This year, that one starter, quarterback Bryson Barnes, departs, and his play on the field is going to be missed.
Barnes threw for 2,803 yards with 18 touchdowns while doubling as the team's leading rusher. His dual-threat capabilities were critical in leading Utah State to score 31 points per game.
The Aggies will seek to replicate that magic with BYU transfer McCae Hillstead, who started his career with the Aggies and now returns.
Javen Jacobs should get the bulk of the carries this season, but Sesi Vailahi will be a nice complement as the No. 2 running back.
Anthony Garcia is the top returning receiver for Utah State. That's a problem, though, because he started the year as the third-string quarterback.
The top two receivers from last year depart, as do both starting tight ends.
Two Virginia backups and transfers from Texas State and Arizona will seek to mitigate the losses at receiver, and Kache Kaio will move into a larger role at tight end after catching two passes last year.
The offensive line is more experienced, but three of the four tackles who played last year depart from a unit that surrendered 42 sacks and 88 tackles for a loss.
Protecting the quarterback will be critical again after the Aggies had consistent issues doing so last year.
Utah State is breaking in a new offensive coordinator, as Robert Anae reunites with Mendenhall after the two worked together at BYU and Virginia. This change marks the third unique offensive install in as many seasons for Utah State.
Defensively, Utah State returns a decent amount of production from a unit that really didn't play all that well outside of about three or four games.
The defensive line sees Carson Tujague and Tyree Morris return, and Mississippi Valley State transfer Adonis Jackson will join them in the starting platoon.
I think this group is a hair undersized. In fact, Utah State doesn't list a player in the two-deep over 300 pounds, making depth a concern along the defensive front.
Chris Joe is a solid linebacker who can get to the quarterback and also support stopping the run. Cal transfer Harrison Taggart played a decent amount last year and should log snaps alongside FCS transfer Jordan Pendleton.
Five of the top six in the secondary are gone, but Brevin Hamblin returns after being the second-leading tackler a season ago.
This is essentially going to be last year's second-team secondary running the show. While last year's group did OK, Utah State was shredded in pass coverage any time it faced competent passing offenses.
Utah State welcomes Coastal Carolina transfer kicker Kian Afrookhteh, who went 15-of-19 with a long of 44 yards last season. The Aggies also return their punter. They had one of the least explosive return units in FBS last season, so seeing those units emerge would really help.
There's some element of uniqueness to this wager.
The Pac-12 is scheduling the 12th game of the season with an opponent that is to be determined. Each team will only have six days of notice. For that reason, DraftKings will settle the wager on the first 11 games. So, we're getting a win total of 5.5 juiced to the under, with an 11-game schedule. I project 4.7 wins for Utah State during those 11 games.
The schedule is difficult early, with road trips to Washington and Utah, where Utah State will be a three-touchdown underdog.
Troy comes to town in a nonconference battle with a bye week on deck, while the Aggies have Boise State looming next. After playing Boise on the road, Washington State comes to town. That game will be priced as a pick'em.
The remaining three road trips include Texas State, San Diego State and Oregon State. Fresno State and Colorado State are also on the schedule in home games.
I think there's a real possibility that we see a 2-5 start to the season for Utah State, which would still have Fresno State and San Diego State — two of the favorites to win the conference. The Aggies play seven teams that had a winning record in 2025, and they defeated only one such team last year.
Not counting the 12th game with a TBD opponent is huge here. Given the circumstances, I'm OK with the high vig, but this wager must be placed at DraftKings.
Pick: Utah State Under 5.5 Wins (-190)
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Western Michigan Broncos
Win Total: 7.5 (+120o / -150u)
Western Michigan's 2025 season was a stunning one for all the right reasons. After starting 0-3 with losses to two Big Ten opponents and a brutal home loss to North Texas, the Broncos won 10 of their last 11 games to win the MAC and the Myrtle Beach Bowl in the process.
Head coach Lance Taylor has seen an improvement in the win column each year and has rebuilt the program very nicely.
Still, WMU was far from dominant last season. The Broncos were often locked in lower scoring defensive battles and were very fortunate to defeat Toledo, Central Michigan and Ohio. In fact, they even struggled with UMass for three quarters in Amherst.
The identity of this group was built on a run-heavy, ball-control offense accompanied by a strong defense that created a ton of Havoc.
The MAC was a league filled with teams that struggled to throw the football, so WMU had a major advantage with its rock-solid defensive front that generated 43 sacks and 83 tackles for loss. It won't have that advantage this year.
The defensive front was one of the best the MAC had seen in quite some time. Nadame Tucker and Rodney McGraw had 22 sacks between the two of them and regularly impacted plays.
All four starters on the defensive line and three players from the second platoon are gone, so WMU will be relying on FCS transfers and a few fringe P4 backups to fill the void.
The linebacker group sees the top two depart, so the Broncos will rely on DeJuan Echoles Jr., Brenden Anes and four JUCO players to try to pick up the slack.
The secondary was such a strength last season, as WMU allowed a completion percentage of just 55% with 14 passing touchdowns given up all season.
However, the back end was aided heavily by the pressure put on opposing quarterbacks. With that pressure no longer around, the secondary could get exploited more frequently this season.
With the defense taking a step back, much more will be expected from the offense. The Broncos ran a run-heavy offense, even from the quarterback position.
Broc Lowry threw for only 1,803 yards and nine touchdowns but added 963 rushing yards and 14 rushing scores. He returns, as does running back Jalen Buckley, who ran for 1,003 yards last season.
The passing game will have to develop, and the receivers need to step up if Western Michigan wants to win games.
All of this will be going on while the Broncos break in a new offensive line. WMU sees four players depart from last year's exquisite group. The O-line transfers were a hit last year and could be once again, but I have a feeling this offense is going to have more pressure put on it to score points.
The schedule is tricky in the nonconference portion, as the Broncos play regional big brother Michigan to open the season.
After an FCS opponent, they have to go to Houston to take on Rice. That will provide a difficult schematic matchup, as the Owls are in Year 2 of running the inverted "Gun Option."
After that, Boise State comes to town before conference play starts. WMU draws my most difficult MAC schedule in 2026, playing seven of my projected top-nine finishers in the MAC.
Back-to-back road trips to Central Michigan and Toledo won't be easy, and seeing Eastern Michigan and Miami (OH) come to town at the end of the year will provide challenges as well.
The MAC is a league of parity, seeing six different league champions over the last six years. A lot has to go right for the Broncos to see the level of success they experienced last season.
While they're still a feisty group in the MAC, the nonconference schedule will test this team. I don't expect another huge win streak, which was heavily aided by the run defense.
Pick: Western Michigan Under 7.5 Wins (-150)
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