College Football Betting | Kentucky vs Mississippi State Odds
Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Kentucky’s Devin Leary.
Kentucky vs Mississippi State Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
Editor's Note: Mississippi State will be without quarterback Will Rogers and running back Woody Marks for its game against Kentucky, Action Network's Brett McMurphy reports. Mike Wright will start at quarterback for the Bulldogs.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs welcome the Kentucky Wildcats into Starkville for a week 10 matchup between the SEC West against the SEC East.
Mississippi State is returning home after going 1-1 the two weeks prior at Arkansas and at Auburn. The Wildcats enter this one looking to get back on track after dropping their last three games at Georgia and at home against Missouri and Tennessee.
This should be a competitive matchup where the home team has won each of the last five matchups. Will that streak continue this week in Starkville?
Mark Stoops has done a solid job in Kentucky, but he desperately needs a win this week to get his 5-3 squad back on track after a 5-0 start.
The Wildcats did play the best of the best in the SEC East the last three weeks, so this should be a great opportunity as a road favorite to bounce back.
The Wildcats offense all starts with running back Ray Davis. Every game this team finds success on the ground with Davis, it seems to run away with. His ability to take any carry to the house makes this Kentucky run game special, as it ranks seventh in rushing explosiveness.
The Wildcats typically like to throw the ball, with a pass rate rank of 28th under quarterback Devin Leary.
Stoops trusts Leary, and he should. He has thrown for an average of 218 yards per game with 16 touchdowns to seven interceptions on the year. However, there are some concerns with nearly one interception per game.
Defensively, this team is truly a tale of two sides. The run defense has been awesome for the Wildcats, who rank 28th in that area, so it will be tough sledding for the Bulldogs on the ground.
However, their pass defense is horrible at 127th. They will have to contain the Bulldogs’ air attack to hang around and keep this one close.
Fortunately for the Wildcats defense, they have been very successful at limiting the big plays in both the run and pass game, ranking 19th in defensive explosiveness.
As long as they prevent the big plays and slow the passing attack, their defense should be good enough to win this one.
The Bulldogs enter this one looking to jump above .500 after dropping one last week at Auburn.
Zach Arnett’s squad has struggled in SEC play this year at 1-4 with the lone win being an ugly 7-3 win against Arkansas. The Bulldogs are looking to take advantage of the cowbell noise in Starkvegas this week to pull off an upset as a home underdog.
Will Rogers has headlined this offense the last few years down in Starkville, and the senior looks to take advantage of a porous Kentucky pass defense. The Mississippi State pass attack averages only 197 yards per game, which will need to be surpassed to beat the Wildcats.
Rogers has his team ranking 102nd through the air and 107th on the ground in terms of Success Rate. The Bulldogs run a pretty even split of pass and run plays, but they may need to skew it in this one to throw a bit more.
Arnett’s defense has a similar story to the Wildcats.
The run defense has been much better than the pass defense. That being said, the Wildcats hold a significant edge in overall defense.
Mississippi State allows an average of 25 points per game defensively. It ranks 68th against the run, and similar to Kentucky, it comes in at 37th in defensive explosiveness.
Mississippi State also limits big plays, which could turn this one into a grind-it-out slugfest. The Bulldog pass defense is awful, so they will have a hard time against the quick throws from Leary, as they rank 114th against the pass.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kentucky and Mississippi State match up statistically:
Kentucky Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 54 | 68 | |
| Line Yards | 86 | 45 | |
| Pass Success | 75 | 117 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 129 | |
| Quality Drives | 65 | 89 |
Mississippi State Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 107 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 97 | 39 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 69 | |
| Havoc | 82 | 68 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 65 | |
| Quality Drives | 58 | 98 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 77 | 29 |
| PFF Coverage | 63 | 37 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 25 | 17 |
| Middle 8 | 109 | 116 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.1 (121) | 28.1 (89) |
| Rush Rate | 47.3% (107) | 53.6% (66) |
Kentucky vs Mississippi State
Betting Pick & Prediction
These two teams are very similar, and the home team has won each of the last five matchups outright.
This one feels like it should yield a different outcome with a Kentucky team desperately looking to get back on track after dropping three in a row.
I think Kentucky’s defense will slow Mississippi State's offense, and Leary should be able to throw all over the field in Davis Wade Stadium for the 'Cats to walk away with a big road win.
Give me Kentucky -5.
Pick: Kentucky -5
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