Nebraska vs Michigan State Odds & Picks: Expect Some Offense

November and colder temperatures are here, which means it's time for some grueling, low-scoring Big Ten matchups. Week 10 features the Nebraska Cornhuskers making the road trip to East Lansing, Michigan, to play the Spartans of Michigan State.

Nebraska enters after winning its third straight game last week against Purdue. The Cornhuskers sit at 3-2 in Big Ten conference play and remain in the running to win the West Division. Michigan State sits on the other end of the spectrum after dropping its last six in a row, good for 0-5 in the conference.

However, the Spartans can play spoiler this week in what should be a close one.

Find my betting prediction, pick and preview for Nebraska vs. Michigan State below.

Matt Rhule is starting to do in Lincoln what he does best: turn a program around. It may be too early to tell, but this Nebraska team actually has a winning record at 5-3 overall and is on the verge of a bowl appearance with a win this week in East Lansing.

The Cornhuskers have not made a bowl since 2016, so this would be a massive step forward for the program. They also are tied for first in the Big Ten West at 3-2, which will be a great opportunity for them to stay in the hunt for a Big Ten Championship.

Nebraska is averaging 19.5 points per game, which makes sense for a Big Ten team ranking fifth in the country in Rush Rate. Rhule wants this team to grind it out on the ground in slugfests each week. The Huskers only rank 74th in Rushing Success Rate, but they continue to pound the rock regardless.

However, they make their money on the big play through the air, ranking third in the country in Pass Explosiveness. The key for Nebraska’s offense is to stay ahead of the chains with the run game because outside of those play-action throws downfield, Heinrich Haarberg does not offer enough with his 51% completion percentage.

Look for Nebraska to try and impose its will on the ground in this one while mixing in a few opportunities to hit some deep balls for quick scores.

In traditional Big Ten fashion, the defense is the strength of this Cornhuskers squad. The defense ranks 33rd in Success Rate, stifling opponents weekly. Nebraska has 25 sacks on the year through eight games, and consequently, the Huskers also rank 24th in Havoc.

Nebraska only allows 18.5 points per game, and most of these points come as a result of their offensive turnover woes. The Cornhuskers have a -11 Turnover Margin, which could play a major factor if they give the Spartans short fields for quick scores. Outside of turnovers from the Nebraska Offense, expect Michigan State has a difficult time moving the ball against this defense.

Harlon Barnett is doing his best to salvage what he can this season after the Mel Tucker dismissal, but it has proven too much for him. The Spartans are 2-6 on the year and 0-5 in Big Ten play. This one will not be an easy matchup to find that first Big Ten win, but the Spartans should hang around in a chilly game in East Lansing.

The Spartans offense has been horrible this season. They only score 18 points per game and average nearly 2.5 turnovers per game, good for a -7 Turnover Margin. Noah Kim headlines this poor offense with his six touchdowns and six interceptions.

The Spartans rank 88th in Pass Success Rate, but they throw the ball at a much higher clip than the Huskers. Michigan State actually ranks 50th in seconds per play compared to Nebraska at 129th. Expect Michigan State to push the issue and try to get this Nebraska defense tired early with quick throws all over the field.

Michigan State does not generate many big plays at 114th in Explosive Play Rate, so points could be at a premium unless the Spartans are gifted short fields.

Michigan State's defense is much better than its offense, ranking 75th defensively, but the key in this matchup is the strength of the run defense compared to the pass defense. The defense ranks 55th in Rush Success Rate allowed and an impressive sixth in the country in Explosiveness.

Consequently, Nebraska will have difficulty moving the ball against this stout run defense. Michigan State ranks 44th in Explosiveness against the pass, too, so big plays should be pretty limited.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nebraska and Michigan State match up statistically:

Nebraska Offense vs. Michigan State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	74	55
Line Yards	42	40
Pass Success	120	97
Havoc	112	49
Finishing Drives	79	62
Quality Drives	100	72

Michigan State Offense vs. Nebraska Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	102	30
Line Yards	121	103
Pass Success	88	34
Havoc	94	78
Finishing Drives	121	44
Quality Drives	114	28

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	37	68
PFF Coverage	33	124
Special Teams SP+	106	21
Middle 8	62	70
Seconds per Play	30.6 (128)	25.9 (50)
Rush Rate	67.2% (5)	48.0% (101)

This will be a battle of two strong defenses with two opposite offensive attacks. While points will be at a premium, as they always are this late in the season, turnovers will tell the story in this one.

Both of these teams are awful at holding onto the football, and they will have opportunities to score fast after turnovers on short fields to get some easy scores. I think it will be low scoring, but 34.5 points is too low.

Give me the over in this one.