The college football coaching carousel is spinning so fast that athletic directors across the country will be lucky to keep their lunches down. It feels like half the sport has either just fired their coach or is actively searching for a new one.
That has thrown numerous programs into turmoil.
This week, I’m fading a pair of SEC programs that would be happy to fire their current coaches if they could just find $30 million in buyout cash lying around.
Let's dive into the college football odds and my NCAAF picks, fading two coaches on the hot seat in South Carolina vs. Ole Miss and Kentucky vs. Auburn.
South Carolina vs Ole Miss Pick
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
You may be wondering why this spread is hovering below the key number of 14. The simple answer is that Lane Kiffin has underachieved as a double-digit home favorite in SEC play since arriving in Oxford.
In fact, Ole Miss is 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games as an SEC favorite of 10 points or more.
So, why is this situation different? South Carolina is out of gas emotionally.
The Gamecocks and their embattled head coach, Shane Beamer, made their last stand on Saturday against Alabama. Beamer’s team fought valiantly, but ultimately came up short against the Crimson Tide, 29-22.
That loss has all but sealed their postseason fate at 3-5 with trips to Oxford and College Station in the next three weeks.
Seven losses means they’ll be sitting at home on their couch this holiday season, missing a bowl game for the second time in three seasons. Despite a sizable buyout, that means Beamer will be looking for a new job.
Between the lines, South Carolina’s fall from grace is explainable in two ways.
The Gamecocks entered the season ranked 13th in the AP Poll because they possessed a dynamic dual-threat quarterback in LaNorris Sellers and a ball-hawking defense.
However, Sellers has been running for his life since the season began, taking 27 sacks, the second-most in the FBS.
Meanwhile, the defense has fallen off a cliff in terms of “Havoc.” Last year, South Carolina ranked top-30 in tackles for loss and takeaways. But this fall, SC sits outside the top 60 in Havoc, and that has contributed to the Gamecocks’ average field position on offense, which is the third-worst in the sport.
With Trinidad Chambliss piloting an Ole Miss attack that's pouring in 37 points per game, I’m banking on the dam breaking and Beamer and his boys throwing up the white flag.
Pick: Ole Miss -13.5
Kentucky vs Auburn Pick
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +320 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -400 |
Mark Stoops' massive buyout, rumored to be in the $37-$38 million range, is the only thing standing between him and the ax.
Kentucky is in freefall. The Wildcats, four years removed from a 10-win season, have started 0-5 in conference play. They’ve dropped three of their last four conference games by three touchdowns or more.
Much like South Carolina, UK dug deep and played inspired football against a national power on its home field last week.
But like the Gamecocks, the Wildcats came up short. Their overtime loss to Texas has triggered an in-season collapse. Last week against Tennessee, UK gave up 56 points and 504 total yards in a 22-point defeat that never felt that close.
Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze is coaching for his job as well, but his Tigers have a silver lining — they’ve consistently played well on defense in conference play.
Auburn has one-possession losses to Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas A&M on its resume. Its run defense checks in at fifth nationally.
And the cure for its stalled offense is the Kentucky defense, which is now giving up 5.7 yards per play (80th). A blowout win could put wind in the Tigers' sails as they cruise toward No. 9 Vanderbilt and No. 4 Alabama in the coming weeks.
It’s getting dark early on Freeze’s time on The Plains, but he’s not dead yet.
Pick: Auburn -10
