College Football Odds, Picks for Vanderbilt vs. Florida
Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: Graham Mertz (Florida)
Vanderbilt vs. Florida Odds
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -105 | 51 -115o / -105u | +700 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -115 | 51 -115o / -105u | -1100 |
Week 6 brings us a matchup between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Florida Gators down in The Swamp in Gainesville, Florida.
After starting the season 2-0, Vanderbilt is coming off of a disappointing fourth loss in a row to Missouri. The Dores will need to try and get a win here to show some kind of competitiveness in the SEC.
Florida is also coming off of a blowout loss in Lexington to Kentucky. Florida will need to bounce back with a win to show it belongs near the top of the SEC East.
How will these two teams fare against each other? Let's dive into this Vanderbilt vs. Florida betting preview.
Traditionally, Vanderbilt hasn't been competitive in SEC play, as it's 12-63 in conference outings over the past 10 years. Despite only winning 12 games in 10 years in the SEC, one of those victories was over Florida just last year.
This Commodores offense has left a little more to be desired thus far this season. It currently has competition at quarterback after starter AJ Swann was injured against Kentucky.
That allowed for senior Ken Seals to get the start against Missouri last week. Seals played OK, throwing for 259 yards and two touchdowns while tossing one interception.
This was after Swann threw three interceptions against Kentucky the week prior, so Vanderbilt has a big issue when it comes to taking care of the football.
The running game isn’t any better for the Commodores, as their Rushing Success Rate ranks 86th compared to their Passing Success Rate, which ranks 80th.
They're capable of some explosive plays in the passing game, though, ranking 56th in Passing Explosiveness. They will need some big plays against this talented Florida defense to get some points on the board.
Defensively, Vanderbilt will still be without senior linebacker Kane Patterson. This will hurt a Dores run defense that's found some solid success this year. They rank 48th against the run, so they're making teams beat them through the air.
Unfortunately for Vanderbilt, when teams start going to the air, that's when things start to get ugly for it. The Dores rank 104th against the pass and don't force many turnovers or explosive plays (82nd in pass defense Explosiveness).
Florida should find some success putting up points through the air.
The Gators should be focused following last week’s loss. Coach Billy Napier needs to get this defense back on track after it allowed nearly 300 rushing yards to Kentucky running back Ray Davis.
Offensively, quarterback Graham Mertz will look to clean it up after throwing an interception last week.
This Gators offense has started to find its groove with Mertz at the helm, despite an uninspiring performance from Mertz at Utah to start the season.
The Gators' passing game has been so good that it ranks 17th in Passing Success Rate. This sparks some trouble for an awful Vanderbilt pass defense, so Mertz should have a field day picking apart the opposing secondary.
The one struggle with this Florida offense is its lack of explosiveness. They rank 119th in offensive Explosiveness, so it will be — and has been — tough on the Gators to score points in a hurry. Mertz will need to make some explosive plays throwing the ball down the field if they want to blow the Commodores out.
Outside of last week’s defensive performance, this Gators defense has been awesome. It ranks 10th against the run and the pass.
Florida’s defense should have no problem keeping the Vanderbilt offense at bay this week.
The main area of concern for this Florida defense is allowing the big play. It ranks 132nd defensively in Explosiveness, meaning it allows a few big plays per game that can lead directly to points.
Vanderbilt could get a few scores if it can exploit these lapses.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Vanderbilt and Florida match up statistically:
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Florida Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 86 | 10 | |
| Line Yards | 97 | 27 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 25 | |
| Havoc | 84 | 98 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 50 | |
| Quality Drives | 68 | 39 |
Florida Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 67 | 49 | |
| Line Yards | 74 | 57 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 117 | |
| Havoc | 93 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 35 | 61 | |
| Quality Drives | 37 | 105 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 48 | 105 |
| PFF Coverage | 69 | 46 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 22 | 24 |
| Middle 8 | 92 | 62 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.9 (50) | 31.2 (130) |
| Rush Rate | 44.0% (118) | 55.3% (51) |
Vanderbilt vs Florida
Betting Pick & Prediction
Will there be enough opportunities for this Vanderbilt offense to hang around in this game against the Gators down in The Swamp?
I don't think so.
This Vanderbilt offense has been weak, and with no clear cut quarterback entering this week, there may be some confidence issues for both guys when facing a talented Gators defense.
I also expect Mertz to move the ball down the field efficiently on most of the Gators' drives, getting points consistently.
It won’t happen fast, but I would take the Gators to cover -18.5.
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