College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Tennessee vs. Missouri: Points to be Expected in SEC Duel

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Tennessee vs. Missouri: Points to be Expected in SEC Duel article feature image
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Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Missouri Tigers running back Tyler Badie (1).

  • Missouri hosts Tennessee at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field at Noon ET.
  • Both teams are 2-2 and coming off losses to Boston College and Florida, respectively.
  • Keg breaks down the game and offers up his pick for the SEC battle.

Tennessee vs. Missouri Odds

Tennessee Odds +2.5 (-110)
Missouri Odds -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline +120 / -140
Over/Under 66 (-115 / -105)
Time 12 p.m. ET
TV SEC Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Josh Heupel makes his return to Missouri on Saturday afternoon.

At Missouri, Heupel made a name for himself in 2016-2017 as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach before leaving to be the head coach at UCF.

The Volunteers come into this game looking to bounce back after opening SEC play last week with a 38-14 loss against Florida.

On the other hand, Missouri is still looking for its first FBS win of the season after losing to Kentucky and suffering a tough loss in overtime last week to Boston College.

In a game where both teams look to get back on track after a tough start to their season, who can find answers and who’s in danger of being on the hot seat early?


Tennessee vs. Missouri Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 2
12 p.m. ET
SEC Network

Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee Offense

The quarterback situation on rocky top four weeks into the season is still very unclear.

After starting the first two games and leaving the Pitt game with an injury, Joe Milton remains on the sideline after being cleared to play.

Quarterback Hendon Hooker has gotten the call to start the last two games, during which he’s completed 65% of his passes and thrown for 613 yards. He’s also been able to throw seven touchdowns and surrendered just one interception.

As we’ve come to expect from a Heupel offense, Tennessee ranks first in plays per minute. And with an up-tempo offense, they’ve been able to effectively move the ball, ranking third in first downs and eighth in rush yards.

However, I believe these stats are primarily due to the lack of competition the Volunteers have faced.

Last week against Florida, Tennessee was only able to score 14 points while going for 148 rushing yards.


Tennessee Defense

The Volunteers’ defense has also benefited from inferior opponents. They rank 67th in team defense and 54th in passing yards allowed.

But both Florida and Pitt were able to score 35-plus points on this defense. Tennessee has also allowed all 13 drives into the red zone by opponents to result in points, nine of those resulting in touchdowns.

I don’t think Tennessee will be able to maintain this level of defense against SEC opponents.

If Missouri can take advantage of them, it’s only going to worsen going forward.

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Missouri Tigers

Missouri Offense

This Missouri offense is much better than its record reflects. The Tigers lost to Kentucky by one touchdown and lost to Boston College in overtime.

Through four games, they rank 20th in the nation in yards per game with 483 while scoring 34 on average each contest. The Tigers have scored on all 15 trips into the red zone this season, with 13 of those resulting in touchdowns.

The biggest issue for this Missouri offense has been on third down, where it ranks 130th in the nation in conversions.

If Eli Drinkwitz wants to get his first FBS win of the season this team will have to find ways to extend offensive drives against the Volunteers who have the ability to run the ball and manage the clock in their favor with ease.


Missouri Defense

The Tigers have struggled on defense and it has cost them games. They’ve allowed on average 32 points and 454 yards per game so far this year.

And the two Power 5 teams they’ve faced have both scored 35 or more. They rank 120th in first downs and 122nd in Rushing Success; both are areas that Tennessee can and will exploit its advantage.

While the Tigers aren’t sure who they’ll see under center for Tennessee, if they don’t find a way to stop the run, this game could get away from them quickly.


Tennessee vs. Missouri Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tennessee and Missouri match up statistically:

Tennessee Offense vs. Missouri Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 32 122
Line Yards 48 124
Pass Success 96 67
Pass Blocking** 73 40
Big Play 46 119
Havoc 39 69
Finishing Drives 44 118
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Missouri Offense vs. Tennessee Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 35 25
Line Yards 64 51
Pass Success 23 62
Pass Blocking** 33 29
Big Play 43 29
Havoc 19 5
Finishing Drives 21 63
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 104 34
PFF Coverage 16 27
Middle 8 78 37
SP+ Special Teams 25 1
Plays per Minute 1 26
Rush Rate 60.1% (32) 41.5% (122)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


While Tennessee is 0-3 against the spread so far this year against FBS opponents, Missouri hasn’t beaten the Volunteers since 2015.

The volunteers are also 1-4 in their past five games outside the state of Tennessee, while the favorite in this series is 5-1 in the last five meetings.

But with both of these teams hungry for a win coming off of tough losses, it’s hard for me to feel confident in either team. Instead I’ll be taking the over in a matchup of two defenses who cant seem to stop a nose bleed.

While Tennessee’s defense on paper seems to be doing well, I’m more interested in its performance last week against Florida where they allowed 38 points and more than 500 total yards.


Tennessee vs. Missouri Betting Pick

I was able to get the total at 64.5 early, but it has since moved up to 65 at most shops.

I would feel comfortable betting this over up to 66 (-110)

Pick:  Over 65 (-110) up to 66 

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