Texas A&M vs. LSU Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on Aggies to Cover

Texas A&M vs. LSU Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on Aggies to Cover article feature image
Credit:

Chris Graythen/Getty Images. Pictured: LSU Tigers cheerleading team.

Texas A&M vs. LSU Odds

Saturday, Nov. 27
7 p.m. ET
ESPN
Texas A&M Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-6.5
47
-105o / -115u
-235
LSU Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+6.5
47
-105o / -115u
+190
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

A few years ago, the public was clamoring and praising head coach Ed Orgeron as the next Nick Saban when LSU went on to win the National Championship in dominant fashion. Maybe not the next Saban, but you get what I’m saying.

Flash forward to today and he is now out of a job after this season. That about sums up LSU in a nutshell since 2019, a constant disappointment after a flash-in-the-pan type of season.

Texas A&M, meanwhile, has been a different type of team. Always the bridesmaid and never the bride. It’s constantly been on the cusp of the SEC Championship game but has never been able to get over the Alabama/Georgia hump.

With Texas A&M once again falling short of the SEC Championship and LSU just trying to get to a bowl game, this sets the stage for an intriguing matchup.


Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M Offense

If Texas A&M is ever going to take the next step to being a perennial SEC contender, then this offense is going to need to improve.

The passing game is practically nonexistent, ranking 94th in Pass Success Rate. This is shocking to see, as the Aggies have one of the lower rush rates in football because they are actually above average on the ground.

The bulk of the Aggies offense is relying on the backfield duo of running backs Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane. With 100+ carries each, the two have combined for 1,845 yards and 15 touchdowns while leading the Aggies to a Rush Success Rate that ranks 45th in the nation.

Rushing yards may be hard to come by this week, as LSU has a rush defense that matches up evenly statistically.

Texas A&M Defense

While the offense has work to do to ever become a consistent threat to the rest of the SEC, the defense is a different story.

This is an elite-level defense. Not only is it above-average in every metric, but it’s also top-five in the nation at defending what LSU is strongest at: the passing game.

Not only are the Aggies one of the best pass defending units, but they are also top three in the nation at Defensive Finishing Drives. They have made a living stalling out opposing offenses when they get past the 40-yard line.

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LSU Tigers

LSU Offense

LSU’s offense is pretty straightforward. It relies on the arm of quarterback Max Johnson. While it has worked for the most part, LSU has struggled against great pass defenses like that of the Aggies.

Johnson comes into this matchup hot, as he is coming off a pretty good outing last week against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks. He threw for 319 yards and two touchdowns while completing 67% of his passes.

He will benefit with a clean pocket, as the LSU offensive line ranks 17th in the nation in pass blocking. He will need all of the help he can get to figure out this Aggie pass defense, which will be no simple feat.

LSU Defense

While the LSU defense doesn’t excel at anything, it does stand out in the most important metric matchup this week: rush defense.

While the Aggies boast a balanced attack, they do most of their damage on the ground. The Tigers defense has the tools to slow them down and dare them to pass more often.

LSU’s defense comes into this game ranking 51st in Rush Success Rate Allowed and 41st in Line Yards. Big gains will come to a premium for the Aggies if they find any open field, as LSU is 15th in the nation at PFF tackling.

LSU will need to tackle well to limit big gains and give its offense more chances to steal this game and go bowling.


Texas A&M vs. LSU Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas A&M and LSU match up statistically:

Texas A&M Offense vs. LSU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 45 51
Line Yards 58 41
Pass Success 94 71
Pass Blocking** 45 28
Big Play 15 57
Havoc 64 50
Finishing Drives 79 67
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

LSU Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 111 43
Line Yards 101 16
Pass Success 49 4
Pass Blocking** 17 46
Big Play 90 33
Havoc 62 34
Finishing Drives 43 3
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 34 15
Coverage 28 32
Middle 8 27 108
SP+ Special Teams 7 20
Plays per Minute 96 49
Rush Rate 53.8% (73) 48.6% (105)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Texas A&M vs. LSU Betting Pick

Motivation alone can be enough to swing a game a certain way when a team has its back pressed against a wall. Sadly, that’s not the case in this game.

LSU is simply too outmatched this time and will see its season come to an end.

Texas A&M will be able to attack the LSU defense in multiple ways and keep the Tigers guessing. Its dual-threat running game should constantly find open lanes and generate chunk yardage.

On the other end, Texas A&M has an elite defense that excels at stopping the only offense that LSU has in the passing game. Johnson will struggle to figure out this elite pass defense, even with little pressure.

I grabbed Texas A&M on the open of -6 and would play this no higher than -6.5.

Pick: Texas A&M -6 (Play to -6.5)

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