Utah vs. Arizona College Football Odds & Picks: Utes Have Value as Heavy Road Favorites

Utah vs. Arizona College Football Odds & Picks: Utes Have Value as Heavy Road Favorites article feature image
Credit:

Douglas Stringer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Utah Utes quarterback Cameron Rising (7) coming onto the field with teammates.

  • Utah (-24) is a huge favorite on Saturday in Tucson against Arizona.
  • The Utes have advantages all over the field and enter this game red hot.
  • Alex Kolodziej breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Utah vs. Arizona Odds

Saturday, Nov. 13
2 p.m. ET
Pac-12 Network
Utah Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-24
-115
54
-110o / -110u
-2500
Arizona Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+24
-105
54
-110o / -110u
+1400
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham’s inching closer to a shot at the elusive Pac-12 title.

Conference frontrunner Oregon’s on deck. But first, his team must take care of business in what would normally be described as a trap spot.

Saturday’s not, because Arizona’s been that bad.

The Wildcats eked out a 10-3 nail-biter over Cal in Week 10 – their first win since Oct. 5, 2019, ending the nation’s longest losing drought.

The majority interested in this one only care about the spread, total, or both. Here, I’ll tell you why there’s value on the side.

Utah Utes

Utah Offense Still Thriving

Your starting quarterback quitting mid-season would normally hamper the offense, if not the entire team.

Utah hasn’t skipped a beat in the wake of Charlie Brewer’s departure.

Cameron Rising — who earned the starting job last year only to suffer a season-ending injury during the opener — has led the team to 38.5 points per game over his six starts.

The sophomore has 12 touchdown passes, just two interceptions and the ninth-best QBR in the country.

The scary part is that’s not even the strength of the Utes offense.

Utah owns the best rush yards per carry in the country (6.2), thanks to a front five that’s third in Line Yards.

Whittingham’s previous offensive units struggled to rip off chunks, but his current group’s also top 10 in Big Play; overall, it’s one of the most underrated offenses in the entire nation.

The defense, meanwhile, is unsurprisingly fourth overall in Havoc rate, registering the 13th-most sacks in football (28.0).

Utah’s held four of its last five opponents under the team total.

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Arizona Wildcats

Wildcats Solid Against Spread

All it took was a Cal team hit by COVID-19 for head coach Jedd Fisch to notch win No. 1 last week.

The Wildcats have been better than market expectation of late, covering three straight.

They threw the kitchen sink at a volatile USC team in Week 9, after nearly tripping up Washington as a 17-point ‘dog the game prior.

Quarterback Will Plummer’s been the primary starter lately for an offense exhausting signal callers at a torrid pace.

Multiple guys have gotten a shot in Fisch’s offense, but there’s hardly been a standout due to injuries and poor play.

If you can build a lead on Arizona, you can likely coast the rest of the game: The ‘Cats are 129th in Pass Success and 122nd in Big Play this year.

Arizona’s 4-0 to the under as a home ‘dog in 2021. Six of the last eight meetings between these two have sailed under the total.


Utah vs. Arizona Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah and Arizona match up statistically:

Utah Offense vs. Arizona Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 14 59
Line Yards 3 62
Pass Success 78 12
Pass Blocking** 93 70
Big Play 8 95
Havoc 20 46
Finishing Drives 35 105
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Arizona Offense vs. Utah Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 78 64
Line Yards 75 86
Pass Success 129 46
Pass Blocking** 76 44
Big Play 122 71
Havoc 112 4
Finishing Drives 127 52
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 110 77
Coverage 73 130
Middle 8 57 102
SP+ Special Teams 125 56
Plays per Minute 64 29
Rush Rate 53.3% (78) 50.3% (95)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Utah vs. Arizona Betting Pick

Utah’s running hot, and good luck to anyone getting in the way of this freight train.

The Utes fit our A-rated, Road Streak PRO system in Week 11, which has cashed at a 61% lifetime rate. It highlights road teams on a winning streak, with a certain threshold on the total.

Utah’s admittedly had its lumps, dropping games to both San Diego State and Oregon State as a favorite.

However, this is usually when Whittingham flips the switch. He’s 6-1 against the number the last seven in November.

Lay the chalk in another smash spot for the Utes.

Pick: Utah -24 (Play to 24)

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