College Football Week 11: McMurphy’s Law on Boise State, Bowl Projections & Bedlam

Since 1998, Boise State could always count on two things: playing home games on its blue turf and finishing each season with a winning record.

The blue turf isn’t going anywhere, but the Broncos’ streak of consecutive winning seasons is in danger.

Boise State has the nation’s longest current streak of winning seasons at 25. That ties as the fifth-longest since 1950 with Florida (1988-2012) and Virginia Tech (1993-2017).

Most consecutive winning seasons (since 1950):

• Florida State 41 (1977-2017)
• Nebraska 40 (1962-2001)
• Oklahoma 28 (1966-93)
• Alabama 26 (1958-83)
• Boise State 25 (1998-present)
• Florida 25 (1988-2012)
• Virginia Tech 25 (1993-2017)

Boise State is 4-5 with games remaining Saturday vs. New Mexico, Nov. 17 at Utah State and Nov. 24 vs. Air Force.

If the Broncos don’t reach at least seven wins (bowl game included), it will end one of the most dominating runs in college football.

In their previous 25 seasons with a winning record, the Broncos won at least 10 games in 18 seasons and never needed a bowl victory to avoid a losing season.

The last time Boise State finished without a winning record was 1997. The Broncos coach that year? He was a future SEC head coach (answer below).

If Boise State’s streak ends, the next-longest current streaks belong to a handful of Power 5 programs.

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Current consecutive winning seasons:

• Boise State, 25
• Wisconsin, 21
• Oklahoma State, 17
• Alabama, 17*
• Georgia, 13*
• Clemson, 12
• Ohio State, 12*
• Iowa, 10

*Includes this year

Of the group, Oklahoma State has flirted the most with a losing record during its streak. In four different seasons, the Cowboys won their bowl game to finish 7-6 instead of 6-7.

The most impressive of the group? No surprise, it’s Alabama and Clemson. The Crimson Tide have double-digit victories in 16 consecutive seasons under Nick Saban, and Clemson had 12 under Dabo Swinney until that ended this season.

Ironically, three Florida teams kept Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State from being among the nation’s longest consecutive winning streaks.

Clemson lost to USF in the 2010 Meineke Car Care Bowl — yes, there was such a thing — finishing 6-7. If Clemson had won that bowl, the Tigers currently would have 23 consecutive winning seasons.

Georgia lost to UCF in the 2010 Liberty Bowl to finish 6-7 or the Bulldogs currently would have 27 consecutive winning seasons.

Ohio State lost to Florida in the 2011 Gator Bowl or the Buckeyes currently would have 23 consecutive winning seasons.

Oh yeah, the last Boise State coach to finish with a losing record? In 1997, the Broncos were 4-7 in what was Houston Nutt’s only season as Boise State’s coach.

If you didn’t like last week’s initial College Football Playoff rankings, you probably weren’t too thrilled with Tuesday’s second edition.

The top eight teams in the second week were identical to the first: 1. Ohio State, 2. Georgia, 3. Michigan, 4. Florida State, 5. Texas, 6. Washington, 7. Oregon, 8. Alabama.

The good news is the top eight should be different next week after four Top 25 matchups, including No. 3 Michigan at No. 10 Penn State and No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia.

If I asked which seven Power 5 coaches had the worst record against other Power 5 opponents in their past 18 games, there would be some obvious guesses based on where they’re coaching.

But then, there would be some surprise names on this list. I’ll let you decide who’s a surprise and who isn’t.

Here are the Power 5 coaches with the worst record in the past 18 games vs. Power 5 foes.

• Clark Lea, Vanderbilt (2-16)
• Tom Allen, Indiana (3-15)
• Justin Wilcox, Cal (4-14)
• Dino Babers, Syracuse (6-12)
• Matt Campbell, Iowa State (6-12)
• Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M (6-12)
• Greg Schiano, Rutgers (6-12)

The West is the best — at least against the spread.

Arizona and UNLV continue to impress, not only already becoming bowl-eligible, but sharing the nation’s best point spread records at 8-1.

Oregon is contending for a Pac-12 title and College Football Playoff berth while continuing to beat the number each week, going 7-1-1 against the spread.

And then there's Vanderbilt. The Commodores have won only two games this year and are actually worse against the spread with a 1-9 record.

Trying to predict who will make this year’s playoff? History suggests it will be either Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, Florida State or Texas.

In the 10-year history of the College Football Playoff, 30 of the 36 teams to reach the playoff ranked among the nation’s top five teams at this point of the season.

The only programs that were not in the top five to make the playoff with three weeks remaining in the regular season but did so:

• No. 13 Michigan State (2015)
• No. 12 Oklahoma (2015)
• No. 10 Oklahoma (2019)
• No. 8 Ohio State (2014)
• No. 6 Oklahoma (2018)
• No. 6 Michigan (2021)

Of those six, only Ohio State in 2014 won the national title.

Notre Dame’s loss at Clemson all but guarantees the Irish won’t climb into the top 10-12 by season’s end and won’t be headed to a New Year’s Six bowl.

Even with wins over Wake Forest and Stanford, there are too many bodies for Notre Dame to climb over to get into NY6 contention.

What that means is the ReliaQuest Bowl, pitting Big Ten vs. SEC, must replace its Big Ten team with an ACC team if a Big Ten team earns a berth to the Orange Bowl.

With three weeks left, that looks very likely. Notre Dame in Tampa to face an SEC team. Georgia, Alabama or Ole Miss? They’re all bound — at worst — for a New Year’s Six bowl.

That would leave LSU, led by former Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly, to face the Irish in what would be the hottest ticket at Raymond James Stadium since Taylor Swift visited in April.

CBS took top honors again this week. In fact, CBS had the top two and three of the four most-watched games from Week 10. The top two were SEC games on CBS: LSU at Alabama and Missouri at Georgia.

Here are last week’s top-rated games, according to SportsMediaWatch.

Last week’s top five (all times ET):

1. LSU at Alabama, 8.82 million (CBS, 7:45 p.m.)
2. Missouri at Georgia, 7 million (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
3. Washington at USC, 4.45 million (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
4. Ohio State at Rutgers, 3.96 million (CBS, noon)
5. Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, 3.76 million (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)

This is the all-time flat spot of flat spot situations for Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.

Last week, the Cowboys edged the Sooners in what Mike Gundy thinks will be the final regular-season Bedlam meeting ever. Now, OSU, after watching its fans tear down the goalposts, travels to face UCF, which needs a win to stay alive for bowl eligibility.

The Sooners are surely deflated after consecutive losses to Kansas and OSU and face a red-hot West Virginia team. WVU has only three losses — two to current top-15 teams, and the other on a Hail Mary at Houston.

Season Record: 4-7

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