Week 11 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Updated Predictions & Projected Spreads
Credit:
Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Alabama’s Jalen Milroe.
Three weeks remain, and we have 51 bowl-eligible teams for 82 spots. This doesn't include James Madison and Jacksonville State, who are in the process of transitioning from FCS to FBS.
If there aren't enough bowl-eligible teams, JMU and JSU will be selected first to fill any openings, followed by teams with 5-7 records. I’m still projecting there won’t be enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all of the spots.
Here are my Week 11 projections — and each projection includes the projected point spread for each bowl based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.
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National Championship
Jan. 8 •
Houston, TX
Georgia
Michigan
-0.5
College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections
Rose Bowl Jan. 1 • Pasadena, CA Michigan -4 Florida State | Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 1 • New Orleans, LA Georgia -0.5 Oregon |
New Year's Six Bowl Games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Jan. 1 • Glendale, AZ Washington Alabama -2 | Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Dec. 30 • Atlanta, GA Penn State -14 Tulane |
Capital One Orange Bowl Dec. 30 • Miami, FL Ohio State -11 Louisville | Goodyear Cotton Bowl Dec. 29 • Arlington, TX Texas Ole Miss -0.5 |
Projections for All Other Bowl Games
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Jan. 1 • Orlando, FL Missouri -13 Iowa | ReliaQuest Bowl Jan. 1 • Tampa, FL Notre Dame -0.5 LSU | Arizona Bowl Dec. 30 • Tucson, AZ Utah State -10.5 E. Michigan | Music City Bowl Dec. 30 • Nashville, TN Auburn -3.5 Wisconsin | AutoZone Liberty Bowl Dec. 29 • Memphis, TN Kentucky Kansas State -5 | Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Dec. 29 • El Paso, TX Miami Oregon State -7 | TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Dec. 29 • Jacksonville, FL Tennessee -17 Georgia Tech | Valero Alamo Bowl Dec. 28 • San Antonio, TX Oklahoma St. Utah -4.5 | Pop-Tarts Bowl Dec. 28 • Orlando, FL UNC Kansas -0.5 | Pinstripe Bowl Dec. 28 • Bronx, NY NC State -1.5 Rutgers | Wasabi Fenway Bowl Dec. 28 • Boston, MA Boston College UTSA -6 | TaxAct Texas Bowl Dec. 27 • Houston, TX Texas A&M Oklahoma PK | Holiday Bowl Dec. 27 • San Diego, CA Clemson -0.5 USC | Duke's Mayo Bowl Dec. 27 • Charlotte, NC Duke -1 Florida | Military Bowl Dec. 27 • Annapolis, MD Virginia Tech SMU -4 | Guaranteed Rate Bowl Dec. 26 • Phoenix, AZ Maryland -5 Houston | First Responder Bowl Dec. 26 • Dallas, TX UNLV -3.5 Texas State | Quick Lane Bowl Dec. 26 • Detroit, MI Minnesota -4.5 Miami OH | EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl Dec. 23 • Honolulu, HI Fresno State -2 Memphis | Las Vegas Bowl Dec. 23 • Las Vegas, NV Arizona -8.5 Nebraska | 68 Ventures Bowl Dec. 23 • Mobile, AL Arkansas St. Jacksonville St. -3 | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Dec. 23 • Boise, ID Boise State -9.5 NIU | Armed Forces Bowl Dec. 23 • Fort Worth, TX West Virginia -4.5 Illinois | Camellia Bowl Dec. 23 • Montgomery, AL Louisiana -3.5 Rice | Birmingham Bowl Dec. 23 • Birmingham, AL Mississippi St. -6.5 Northwestern | Gasparilla Bowl Dec. 22 • Tampa, FL Coastal Carolina -1.5 South Florida | Boca Raton Bowl Dec. 21 • Boca Raton, FL Georgia Southern Ohio -1 | Frisco Bowl Dec. 19 • Frisco, TX Wyoming -1 Marshall | Myrtle Beach Bowl Dec. 18 • Conway, SC Georgia St. -9 Bowling Green | Independence Bowl Dec. 16 • Shreveport, LA Iowa State -2.5 Washington St. | LA Bowl Dec. 16 • Inglewood, CA UCLA -9.5 Air Force | New Mexico Bowl Dec. 16 • Albuquerque, NM Colorado St. New Mexico St. -1 | Cure Bowl Dec. 16 • Orlando, FL JMU -4 Toledo | New Orleans Bowl Dec. 16 • New Orleans, LA Liberty Troy -4 | Bahamas Bowl Dec. 16 • Charlotte, NC C. Michigan WKU -6.5 |
*The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in either the Peach or Fiesta Bowl if it does not qualify for the College Football Playoff.
**James Madison and Jacksonville State are in its second year transitioning from FCS to FBS. They can only receive a bid if there are not enough teams with at least six wins to fill all the bowls. This week, I do not project enough six-win teams, allowing the Dukes and Gamecocks to receive a bowl berth.
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