NCAAF Odds, Picks for Eastern Michigan vs. Central Michigan
Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Creighton (Eastern Michigan)
Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan Odds
| Eastern Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -115 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | +260 |
| Central Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -105 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -350 |
A MAC in-state rivalry is in full effect as Eastern Michigan makes the two hour drive north to Central Michigan.
Eastern Michigan enters this game with a 2-2 record and is coming off of a 21-0 loss to Jacksonville State. The Eagles are 1-3 against the spread and have gone under in three games so far this season.
Central Michigan comes into this matchup following a 34-30 win over South Alabama, which brought the Chippewas' record to 2-2 in 2023. They're 2-2 against the spread and have gone over in three games.
There will be cross winds ranging from 6.5 to 7.2 miles per hour during the game. While this could have a minor impact on special teams, it shouldn't have a significant impact on scoring.
In his nine previous years as head coach of Eastern Michigan, Chris Creighton has won 43.2% of his team's games, and he's coming off of a 9-4 season.
Through four games in 2023, Eastern Michigan is 2-2.
The Eagles are averaging 14.5 points per game and 4.4 yards per play. They have a 34% Success Rate and average 2.64 points per opportunity.
One struggle with their offense has been its 24% Havoc Rate Allowed.
Eastern Michigan averages 25.8 pass attempts per game for 124.5 yards. Austin Smith has led the team with 456 passing yards and two touchdowns. He's completed 55.3% of his passes for an average of 5.4 yards per attempt.
As a team, the Eagles have a 31% Passing Success Rate.
Eastern Michigan averages 28.3 rush attempts per game for 115.5 rushing yards. The Eagles are led by Jaylon Jackson and Samson Evans, and both Jackson and Evans average at least 5.0 yards per attempt.
As a team, the Eagles have a 39% Rushing Success Rate. Their offensive line averages 2.92 Line Yards generated per attempt and has allowed a 16.3% Stuff Rate.
Eastern Michigan allows 21.5 points per game and 5.6 yards per play. It allows a 42% Success Rate and 2.96 points per opportunity. The Eagles generate Havoc on 17% of plays and have allowed an average of five 20+ yard plays per game.
One particular area of concern for Eastern Michigan has been its 50% Rushing-Success-Rate-Allowed mark.
In his fifth season as the head coach of Central Michigan, Jim McElwain has the Chippewas off to an up and down start.
Central Michigan is averaging 25.8 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. The Chippewas have a 37% Success Rate and average 4.37 points per opportunity. They play at a slow pace of 29.8 seconds per play.
Jase Bauer and Bert Emanuel have shared the quarterback duties this season. While he initially started in Emanuel's absence, Bauer appears to have taken the job.
As a team, Central Michigan is averaging 24 pass attempts, 166.8 passing yards and 1.0 passing touchdowns per game. Bauer is completing 54.2% of his passes for 6.5 yards per attempt.
As a team, the Chippewas have a 33% Passing Success Rate.
Central Michigan is a run-first offense. It averages 41.3 rush attempts per game and 3.7 yards per rush. Myles Bailey leads the team with 213 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
As a team, the Chippewas have a 41% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line generates 3.06 Line Yards per attempt and have allowed a 16.4% Stuff Rate.
Defense has been a struggle for the Chippewas. They've allowed 36.0 points per game and 7.6 yards per play. They also allow a 47% Success Rate.
The Chippewas have struggled to get opponents off of the field, as demonstrated by their 12% Havoc Rate and 4.68 points-per-opportunity-allowed mark.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan match up statistically:
Eastern Michigan Offense vs. Central Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 111 | 115 | |
| Line Yards | 97 | 112 | |
| Pass Success | 127 | 130 | |
| Havoc | 122 | 128 | |
| Finishing Drives | 128 | 121 | |
| Quality Drives | 132 | 125 |
Central Michigan Offense vs. Eastern Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 92 | 124 | |
| Line Yards | 77 | 123 | |
| Pass Success | 123 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 87 | |
| Finishing Drives | 44 | 36 | |
| Quality Drives | 103 | 67 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 13 | 121 |
| PFF Coverage | 75 | 131 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 2 | 103 |
| Middle 8 | 108 | 99 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.2 (118) | 29.8 (111) |
| Rush Rate | 52.3% (97) | 63.2% (15) |
Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan
Betting Pick & Prediction
As of this writing, it appears that sharps are backing Eastern Michigan to cover the spread; approximately 69% of the bets and 88% of the money is backing the Eagles.
Because of this, the line has moved from 6.5 to 7.5.
Per the public betting report, 98% of bets on the total have favored the under.
My preferred bet is backing the betting on the total.
This play comes down to pace of play. Both teams rank inside the bottom-25 nationally when it comes to seconds per play.
They also both average more than a 50% rush rate despite neither ranking higher than 90th nationally in Rushing Success Rate.
With both teams leaning on an ineffective running game, points will be at a premium.
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