Florida State vs. Boston College Odds, Picks: Back Eagles?

Florida State vs. Boston College Odds, Picks: Back Eagles? article feature image

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Florida State vs. Boston College Odds

Saturday, Sept. 16
12 p.m. ET
Florida State Odds
-115o / -105u
Boston College Odds
-115o / -105u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

Florida State has been one of the best teams in college football this season, but in Week 3, it will take a trip to Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, where tough weather will put it to the test.

The Seminoles are obviously the better team in this matchup, but the forecast may play right into the Eagles’ hands.

Let’s dive into my betting preview for Florida State vs Boston College to see my pick and prediction for this matchup.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

Florida State Seminoles

Through two weeks of the season, the Seminoles look like one of the best teams in the country. After dispatching LSU on a national stage, Florida State took care of business last weekend with a 66-13 drubbing of Southern Miss.

The final scoreboard looks impressive, but according to SP+’s post-game win expectancy, Florida State would have been expected to win by “just” 30.6 compared to the gaudy 53 points it did actually win by.

This was likely due to a number of factors, including Florida State recovering an onside kick and converting four for of its five fourth-down attempts. I’m not sure if the aggression was necessary for FSU, but all of Seminoles bettors definitely appreciated it as they secured an easy cover.

The Florida State offense played lights-out once again. They put up 8.03 yards per play, good enough for the 92nd percentile, and a 96th-percentile EPA per Play.

Quarterback Jordan Travis struggled slightly, completing only 15 of his 29 passes for 175 yards to the tune of 0.15 EPA per Play. While still solid numbers, more should be expected from Travis going forward.

As I mentioned in my Florida State preview from last week, its defense as a whole is very respectable, but the run defense is its biggest weakness. Southern Miss couldn't take advantage of this fully, but it does appear in the numbers. USM put up a 17th-percentile EPA per Dropback but a 39th-percentile EPA per Rush.

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Boston College Eagles

Boston College has been one of the more disappointing teams in college football so far. In Week 1, it fell in overtime to Northern Illinois by a score of 27-24. The Eagles followed that up by narrowly defeating FCS Holy Cross in Week 2 in what potentially should have been a loss.

According to SP+’s post-game win expectancy, the expected margin of these games both went against BC by 5.3 and 5.6 points, respectively.

This should be concerning for Eagles fans and bettors. While Holy Cross is a good FCS team, it shouldn't be beating an ACC opponent on the road. Additionally, Holy Cross has a strong offense but a poor defense. The Crusaders offense ranks fourth in FCS, per SP+, while their defense comes in at 38th after finishing 84th last season.

BC performed well offensively, averaging a 95th-percentile Success Rate and 89th-percentile EPA per Play. This is to be expected against an average FCS defense, though.

Against NIU, which ranks 118th in FBS SP+ defensive rankings, Boston College put up a Success Rate in the 39th percentile and an EPA per Play mark in the 20th percentile. Ultimately, I’m really not sure what to expect from the Eagles this weekend.

After playing these two poor defenses, Boston College ranks 67th in Offensive Success Rate and 91st in Finishing Drives. The Eagles' rushing game — a weakness for the FSU defense — has been impressive, ranking 33rd in Success Rate and 26th in PPA.

Boston College's defense isn't great, as it comes in at 78th, according to SP+. After playing two low-level offenses, the Eagles rank 108th in Defensive Success Rate.

I'd expect Florida State to put on a strong offensive showing in normal conditions, but I don't believe we'll see normal conditions this weekend.

Florida State vs Boston College

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida State and Boston College match up statistically:

Florida State Offense vs. Boston College Defense
Rush Success87103
Line Yards5194
Pass Success3571
Finishing Drives2348
Quality Drives899
Boston College Offense vs. Florida State Defense
Rush Success2982
Line Yards2644
Pass Success11920
Finishing Drives9459
Quality Drives6070
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling10510
PFF Coverage4060
Special Teams SP+3020
Middle 81120
Seconds per Play30.2 (118)22.9 (14)
Rush Rate52.6% (60)54.5% (43)

Florida State vs Boston College

Betting Pick & Prediction

The BC offense looked good against a mediocre FCS defense and struggled against a bad G5 defense. I do believe that Boston College could potentially find some success if it needed to lean on its rushing attack.

The total on this game has already been smashed down from 54.5 to 47.5 throughout the week.

The reason for this? Hurricane Lee will arrive in New England this weekend, so we'll likely see quite a bit of rain with the potential for high winds during this game.

In my opinion, this helps Boston College. It'll keep the ball out of Travis’ hands and will let BC take advantage of its strength on the offensive side of the ball.

With questionable weather and an already high spread, I like looking at Boston College to cover as underdogs in this situation.

Pick: Boston College +26.5

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