If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Florida State Seminoles take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, Ky. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Louisville is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -188. The total is set at 59.5 points.
Here’s my Florida State vs. Louisville prediction and college football pick for Friday, October 9.
Florida State vs Louisville Prediction
- Florida State vs. Louisville Pick: Over 59.5 Points (-105 | Play to 61.5)
My Louisville vs. Florida State best bet is the Over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds pageand be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Florida State vs Louisville Odds
| Florida St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 59.5 -105o / -115u | +155 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 59.5 -105o / -115u | -188 |
- Florida State vs Louisville point spread: Louisville -3.5 (-115), Florida State +3.5 (-105)
- Florida State vs Louisville over/under: 59.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Florida State vs Louisville moneyline: Florida State +155, Louisville -188
Florida State vs Louisville College Football Preview
Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview: A Reason to Reconsider
Mike Norvell entered the 2026 season with his seat already scorching hot. A slim 34-17 win over New Mexico State on national TV in Week 0, and that may as well have been his finale. Florida State would go on to lose narrowly to SMU (that's in spite of a bevy of SMU mishaps), also on national television, and then had its doors blown off by Alabama's offense. At 1-2, that was it. Norvell was a lame duck, and FSU was on its way to another bummer of a season.
And then the Noles crushed Virginia, 38-7, behind 281 rushing yards. UVA brought in one of college football's most experienced rosters and one that's proven to be tough and physical on defense. But FSU bullied the Hoos all game long.
So that begs the question: Are the 'Noles better than we believe and are victims of losses to two good teams?
Though Gus Malzahn is no longer calling the offense, OC Tim Harris didn't change a thing. He's coached under Malzahn since 2024 and has continued to use FSU's personnel to perfection. QB Ashton Daniels has thrived in the system, rushing for 349 non-sack yards and nine touchdowns: 136 yards, and five of those came last week against Virginia. Running back Ousmane Kromah is a premier player, picking up 3.9 of his 5.9 yards per carry after contact.
The defense is really only as good as its talent takes it. When overmatched (see: Alabama), it is easily exploited, especially through the air. When it out-talents the other side up front (see: Virginia), it can be really solid. One of the major issues comes from widespread injuries to depth pieces, especially in the back seven. This week, five defensive backs and six linebackers appear on the injury report.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview: Same Old Story
Louisville sure has a program identity. Of the Cardinals' last 13 regular-season losses, 11 have come by one score; eight of those happened as favorites, and in that same span, Louisville has won eight one-score games. On one hand, Jeff Brohm has elevated Louisville to a winning program with a 30-15 overall record and a 2023 ACC Championship appearance. But on the other, these razor-thin losses as comfortable favorites get old.
QB Lincoln Kienholz has battled injury the last few weeks, but he's played through it. Both stud running backs, Isaac and Keyjuan Brown, have also been dinged up and have also played through it. Again this week, Keyjuan appears as questionable on the injury report. Tackle Anwar O'Neal returned in Week 3 after missing Louisville's first two contests, but the loss of linebacker Antonio Watts really hurts this team. Highly touted safety Koen Entringer has also battled injury, one that's clearly impacted his play as he's been poor in pass coverage.
Heading into Week 6, Louisville ranks 104th in points per drive allowed, 103rd in yards per play, and 103rd in havoc rate (takeaways, sacks, and tackles for loss). The road to Week 6 hasn't been easy. Louisville has played four power conference foes, and the Cardinals are just 1-3 against FBS foes. In those games, the defense has yet to hold an opponent under 30 points.
The latest loss to NC State is really concerning. K. Brown fumbled in plus territory in a tied game, and then the defense twice could not get off the field. The first instance resulted in the eventual game-winning field goal; then the offense went three-and-out, and then NC State sat on the ball for a 10-play, four-minute, game-ending drive.
Louisville lost its DC, Ron English, for the season (he stepped away in late December), and his replacements, Steve Ellis and Mark Ivey, have really struggled with no apparent or immediate fix.
Florida State vs Louisville Pick, Betting Analysis
Louisville opened this game as a -7.5 favorite on the road, a number bet down to -5 by the end of Sunday and -3.5 by Tuesday. The total was also bet up from 58.5 to 59.5.
Hurricane Isaias will be a hot topic this weekend, impacting Georgia at Alabama and a number of FCS games. The impact on the FBS slate (beyond Saturday's blockbuster) is minimal, and it's fortunate this game is played Friday, as tropical rains move in to Louisville on Saturday. Expect warm, dry, and calm conditions Friday night.
Both defenses in this game are rather porous and susceptible to what the opposing offense can do. FSU's injuries to its back end on defense make it vulnerable to explosive runs; not much needs to be explained about how Isaac and Keyjuan Brown could take advantage there with a combined 7.2 yards per carry, and that secondary opens up downfield passing lanes (Kienholz is 13-of-20 passing on 20-plus-yard shots with six touchdowns and no interceptions). On the other side, Louisville is 61st in Rushing Success Rate allowed, 132nd in adjusted line yards, and 135th in explosive play rate allowed.
Norvell has been terrible on the road (4-11-1 ATS at Florida State as a road underdog), but I'm not comfortable backing Louisville in this spot. Instead, I'll fade both defenses and back both explosive run-heavy offenses in this Friday night affair.
Pick: Over 59.5 Points (-105 | Play to 61.5)
Florida State vs Louisville Betting Trends
