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The Iowa State Cyclones take on the BYU Cougars in Provo, Utah. Kickoff is set for 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
BYU is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -410. The total is set at 46.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa State vs. BYU prediction and college football pick for Friday, October 9.
Iowa State vs BYU Prediction
- Iowa State vs. BYU Pick: BYU -10.5
My BYU vs. Iowa State best bet is on the Cougars to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and make sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Iowa State vs BYU Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -112 | 46.5 -112o / -108u | +320 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -108 | 46.5 -112o / -108u | -410 |
- Iowa State vs BYU point spread: BYU -10.5 (-108), Iowa State +10.5 (-112)
- Iowa State vs BYU over/under: 46.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Iowa State vs BYU moneyline: Iowa State +320, BYU -410
Iowa State vs BYU College Football Preview
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Much to Figure Out
Even though the Cyclones walked out of the battle with West Virginia victorious, there’s still a significant amount of concern in Ames.
Iowa State went band-for-band with the Mountaineers, with a 45-42 victory, but the problem is, West Virginia only had a little under 22 minutes of ball possession the whole game.
The Cyclones let up over 500 yards, while also forcing a pair of fumbles. What’s even worse is that Michael Hawkins Jr., mainly a dual-threat, only completed 47.8% of his passes, with the run game dominating most of the Mountaineer attack.
So in case you couldn’t tell, that’s bad.
The defense as a whole is a concern. Hawkins isn’t a volume passer, but still managed to connect with DJ Epps for over 100 yards. Iowa State has shown that it gets carved up on the secondary, ranking 99th and 118th in explosiveness allowed in passing plays and passing downs, respectively.
Against the run, the Cyclones rank 73rd in Success Rate allowed and 101st in explosiveness allowed – which is even more concerning given that BYU is ranked second in rushing Success Rate.
On the offensive end, Jaylen Raynor is an exceptional quarterback who has done a nice job transitioning to the Big 12 after three years at Arkansas State.
He does need to tone down the turnovers, but he had his best game last week against WVU, completing passes at a 70.7% clip for 267 yards.
Meanwhile, you can’t talk about Iowa State without mentioning Aiden Flora, the sophomore running back who’s in the midst of a breakout season. Flora is averaging 8.1 yards per carry, and ran for 212 yards last week for three touchdowns.
BYU Cougars Betting Preview: Missing A Key Piece
A lot of people aren’t fans of the conference realignment a few seasons ago, but no program has benefitted more from it than BYU.
The Cougars, led by Kalani Sitake, have adapted well to Power Conference play, and this season has been no different with a 4-0 start.
They snuck past TCU last week after winning 17-10, but it was the help of their defense to stifle the Horned Frogs. BYU’s defense got to TCU QB Jaden Craig four separate times, as well as a timely interception from safety Faletau Satuala.
The pick from Satuala resulted in him being named the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week, and it led to BYU’s first touchdown of the game.
What makes BYU so dynamic is the use of its run game. The Cougars posted 154 total rushing yards last week, and the week prior had over 300. A lot of that fell on LJ Martin, who’s averaging 7.8 yards per carry, but it was reported on Wednesday that Martin is officially out four to six weeks with a lower-body injury.
Currently, BYU’s rushing attack ranks second in Success Rate and PPA, and you have to wonder if freshman Journee Tonga can carry the load or Preston Rex — the former DB.
Bachmeier has been strong since he was named the starter last season, but it’s clear that throwing the ball isn’t always on his mind, and when it is, he likes to sling it.
On Pass Down plays, BYU ranks eighth in explosiveness with a 100th-ranked Success Rate, but on Pass Plays, it’s 129th in explosiveness and 53rd in Success Rate.
Iowa State vs BYU Pick, Betting Analysis
I really like BYU here.
The Cougars are a much more disciplined team than the Cyclones, and the fact that the Cyclones let West Virginia walk all over them is enough cause for concern.
Not having Martin will be a major blow, but BYU's offensive line has been strong, allowing Havoc on only 8.4% of their snaps, which is fourth in the FBS. Because of that, I don't think it's out of the question to expect Tonga or Rex to perform at a high level.
It likely won't be at the same level as Martin, but the Cougs will take what they can get.
Not only that, BYU has been dominant at home. Over the past 17 home games, the Cougars have won by 11 or more points 14 times. Given how brutal Iowa State is on the defensive end – especially against the run – I see a ton of value in taking BYU to cover here.
Pick: BYU -10.5
