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The Wyoming Cowboys take on the San Jose State Spartans in San Jose, California, on Friday, October 9. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
San Jose State is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -184. Wyoming, meanwhile, enters as a +4.5 underdog and is +152 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 42.5 total points.
Here’s my Wyoming vs. San Jose State prediction and college football pick for Friday, October 9.
Wyoming vs San Jose State Prediction
- Wyoming vs. San Jose State Pick: Wyoming Team Total Under 19.5 (-118)
My San Jose State vs. Wyoming best bet is Under 19.5 on the Cowboys team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Wyoming vs San Jose State Odds
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -114 | 42.5 -105o / -115u | +152 |
| San Jose St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -106 | 42.5 -105o / -115u | -184 |
- Wyoming vs San Jose State point spread: Wyoming +4.5 (-114), San Jose State -4.5 (-106)
- Wyoming vs San Jose State over/under: 42.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Wyoming vs San Jose State moneyline: Wyoming +152, San Jose State -184
Wyoming vs San Jose State College Football Preview
Wyoming Cowboys Betting Preview: Defense Holding Up
Wyoming has struggled on the road this season. It's shaping up to be a lost year in Laramie, as the offense simply can't get anything going and the defense isn't strong enough to consistently pin down strong rushing attacks.
Last week’s 28-0 loss at North Dakota State was extremely hard to watch, as the Cowboys offense achieved just 162 total yards and eight first downs.
The defense held up in the first half against NDSU but was overwhelmed in the fourth quarter, while the offense failed on its only red-zone trip.
The passing game hit rock bottom when Wyoming completed just five passes against the Bison. Quarterback Tyler Hughes continues to struggle, throwing for just 708 yards and two passing touchdowns in five games.
No receiver has more than seven catches in a run-heavy attack that runs through Markell Holman and Tote Harris. The two have run for a combined 517 yards and five touchdowns, with hope for a little more success this week against San Jose State.
The Wyoming defense hasn't played too poorly, but the unit has been on the field a lot due to the offense struggling to put drives together.
The Pokes are a little better against the run than the metrics suggest, and although Wyoming ranks 132nd nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed, the unit has contained the explosive plays.
The secondary hasn't been too bad either. Wyoming hasn't surrendered a 300-yard passing game and has given up just two touchdown passes over its last four games.
I have confidence this defense will keep San Jose State from registering explosive plays.
San Jose State Spartans Betting Preview: Diminished Attack
San Jose State has been much better than expected this season. Sitting at 3-2, the Spartans should be staring bowl eligibility right in the face.
A win last week on the islands of Hawaii kept the Dick Tomey Legacy Trophy in San Jose and reinforced a strong defense, something very few people expected at the start of the year.
The Spartans did well containing Hawaii’s attack, and the defense stifled two red-zone trips, allowing just one field goal when the Bows moved the ball inside the Spartans' 20-yard line.
San Jose State’s run defense has also been stronger than expected, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry on the ground this season and only one rushing touchdown in the last two weeks.
The offense has been less explosive than expected in the spread-and-shred system, and the downfield passing from the last couple of years is gone. The Spartans are running the ball more, and Jabari Bates has shined with 487 rushing yards.
Quarterback Luke Weaver has thrown for 1,278 yards and 11 passing touchdowns this season, but the offensive output has diminished over the last couple of weeks as the Spartans have throttled down the pace.
I expect to see that in this game against Wyoming as well.
Wyoming vs San Jose State Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with San Jose State listed as a 6.5-point favorite, with the total set at 44.5 before being bet down to 42.5.
Wyoming has also taken money this week, and the Pokes are currently +4. I played the full-game total under 44 earlier in the week, but I'm also willing to take the Cowboys to go under their team total of 19.5.
The Pokes can't throw the football, and they haven’t done it effectively all season. The three leading receivers are tight ends Jake Wilson and Kyle Frendt, along with Harris at running back.
The passing game has produced just 10 plays longer than 20 yards all season and just one play over 30 yards.
Wyoming will run the rock here, and we should see plenty of four-yard carries and a snail’s pace out of the offense. Wyoming doesn't get sped up, even when trailing, and the Pokes ran just 49 total plays last week while being shut out by NDSU.
This offense has scored just 7.7 points per game on the road this season and has cashed in for only two red-zone touchdowns in seven trips away from home.
Wyoming's real issue will be stacking enough successful plays to move the football in this game. The Cowboys are converting just 31% of third downs against FBS competition this season. That moves to 25% on the road.
I can see a game flow where Wyoming moves the ball for two or three first downs and has to end up punting and pinning San Jose State down around its own 10-yard line, creating long fields the other way.
Both of these teams will play at a slow pace.
San Jose State’s defense has done an excellent job preventing explosive plays, so Wyoming will have to put together three touchdown drives in order to exceed its team total, something the Pokes haven’t done on the road yet this season.
To make matters worse, Wyoming has scored just six first-half points on the road all season, coming on a pair of field goals in the opener.
The Spartans defense has been excellent in the first half all season, allowing just five points per first half over the last month of the schedule.
Wyoming will have to produce late in this game, potentially with the game on the line. We haven’t seen that all season, and I don't see it happening here.
Pick: Wyoming Team Total Under 19.5 (-118 ·FanDuel)
