Welcome back to the beloved SEC for the 2026-27 college football season.
Georgia captured the SEC title over Alabama last season, but there was a four-team tie atop the regular-season standings consisting of Texas A&M, Ole Miss and the two aforementioned squads that competed in the conference title game.
Georgia (+260) once again enters as the conference favorite this season, followed by Texas (+310), Alabama (+800), LSU (+900), Oklahoma (+1100) and Ole Miss (+1150).
So, where does the value lie in the SEC this season? Let's dive into our 2026 SEC preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2026 SEC Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Georgia | +260 |
| Texas | +310 |
| Alabama | +800 |
| LSU | +900 |
| Oklahoma | +1100 |
| Ole Miss | +1150 |
| Texas A&M | +1200 |
| Tennessee | +1700 |
| Florida | +2600 |
| Missouri | +3300 |
| Auburn | +4300 |
| South Carolina | +5200 |
| Vanderbilt | +9400 |
| Kentucky | +15000 |
| Mississippi State | +30000 |
| Arkansas | +30000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Tuesday, Aug. 18.
Pick to Win SEC: Georgia
I'm taking Georgia to win the SEC.
I know the Bulldogs are the favorite to win the league, so I'm not exactly going out on a limb, but their sheer consistency is hard to wrap your head around. They've reached eight of the last nine SEC Championship games, with the one miss coming in the pandemic season.
What Kirby Smart has accomplished in this conference is simply insane.
Surprise Contender in SEC: Oklahoma
I'm taking Oklahoma to make the College Football Playoff at +210, so I think the Sooners fit in this category.
I was in love with this team last year until John Mateer got injured, but the quarterback is healthy, and he looks like a transformer in camp.
The Sooners' defense was great last season, and this unit might be better in 2026.
Finally, the offensive line is third in experience. Expect big things from Oklahoma.
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Between quarterback Gunner Stockton and running back Nate Frazier, no one is going to run the ball quite like the Bulldogs.
Then consider what they have on the offensive line, led by Drew Bobo, Dontrell Glover and Earnest Greene III, and the rest of those returning offensive line snaps (around 5,700). From an experience and snap perspective, that’s top-two in the FBS.
The Bulldogs don't have the elite pass-catchers we're used to seeing. The guys like Zachariah Branch or Colbie Young who can fly downfield and make big plays are gone.
When they go up against a tough run defense, they'll likely be capped with how many explosives they can achieve.
However, one thing that will definitely continue for Georgia is Finishing Drives. It finished seventh in that offensive category last season.
That’s just the nature of Stockton, this offensive line and their running game. They're going to punch it in for touchdowns, not settle for field goals.
Defensively, they dipped into the portal for depth, adding Gentry Williams from Oklahoma, Braylon Conley from USC and All-American candidate Khalil Barnes from Clemson. Throw in Ellis Robinson IV and KJ Bolden in the back end, and I think this is the best secondary in the SEC.
Georgia is one of the few teams in the nation where I don't worry about unit gaps because of how elite its blue-chip recruiting is. There’s always a freshman ready to stand out.
The main thing that needs to be called out, though, is Smart’s focus on winning this conference. Not many coaches preach that anymore; most are just focused on making the College Football Playoff or reaching a bowl game to keep their jobs.
Instead, Smart talks about winning SEC Championships.
I knew they've played in the last five SEC title games, but Georgia has made the SEC Championship in eight of the last nine years.
Smart builds and recruits specifically to dominate the SEC, and whatever happens in the CFP is secondary.
He was Nick Saban’s star pupil. I don't care about all the offensive minds like Lane Kiffin or Steve Sarkisian, as Smart was always Saban’s top guy. When he goes head-to-head against Kiffin or Sarkisian, he has them figured out.
With all that in mind, I don't see how you don't take Georgia to win the SEC at +280, especially with its watered-down schedule.
Road games at Arkansas and South Carolina don't worry me at all. And what happens if they play Texas in the championship? Smart owns Sarkisian.
Pick: Georgia to Win SEC (+280)
The big change I’m keyed into is how aggressive Texas will be on defense compared to former defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski's cover-heavy scheme.
Now, you can actually get in receivers’ faces and jam at the line of scrimmage. That’s huge when you think about the Tennessee game. Tennessee is a timing offense.
If you want to know whether Texas’ secondary is ready to win a national title, that matchup will tell you more than the Ohio State game. Ohio State will take shots, but Tennessee lives and dies on timing. Jam it at the line, and you disrupt everything.
The roster movement is wild with 19 portal additions, 24 freshmen and every recruit being a blue-chipper.
Quarterback Arch Manning’s last six games last season were also ridiculous, with 24 touchdowns to two interceptions and only two turnover-worthy plays in that span.
He really turned it up in the second half of the year. He also added 170 rushing yards on designed calls, had 21 carries of 10-plus yards, and picked up 21 first downs with his legs. That kind of rushing ability is a cheat code for this offense.
The skill pieces on offense are elite. NC State transfer running back Hollywood Smothers averaged 3.8 yards after first contact. Raleek Brown, the guy we loved at Arizona State, forced 55 missed tackles.
The questions are more on the defensive side, but the offense is loaded.
Auburn transfer Cam Coleman and Stanford transfer Emmett Mosley V have contested-catch rates north of 50%.
If Arch can throw it up to two receivers who catch 60–70% of contested balls in their careers, those 50-50 throws become massive advantages.
Defensively, the “star” spot looks to be filled by Graceson Littleton. As a true freshman, he had six pass breakups and two interceptions, which should help stabilize that secondary.
I’ve already taken Texas on the moneyline against Ohio State on the Big Ten podcast because I believe Arch’s speed and downfield ability will attack Ohio State’s secondary.
That’s the kind of matchup Julian Sayin can exploit with Jeremiah Smith, but we’ll see whether or not Ohio State’s new OC plans to attack that weakness.
I’m avoiding Kirby Smart and league-play bets for now; I might have to meet him in the SEC title game, which I’d rather not wager on.
But with receivers who win more than half their contested catches and an offensive line that’s likely the best in the SEC, plus an elite run game and Manning’s own legs, this is a team built to contend.
That said, everything still comes back to Sark’s red-zone play-calling. You can move the ball past the 40 all day, but what do you do once you’re inside the 20? Last season, the Longhorns finished 88th in Finishing Drives, which has been a recurring issue other than the year Bijan Robinson ran the Wildcat.
If this team is going to win a national title, the red-zone stuff has to improve.
I’m taking Texas to win the national title at 8-1. I have it side-by-side with Oregon in the national title game.
Put this kind of offensive talent on the field, and you have to get to the National Championship. If you don’t, the fault lies with the system from top to bottom, from coordinators to assistants.
Sark has said it himself: there’s only one goal, and it’s winning the national title. He set that standard. Now, the rest of it has to meet it.
Pick: Texas to Win National Championship (+800)
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Head coach Kalen DeBoer said the other day about Austin Mack that familiarity is so important here. But if familiarity is so important, why is Mack only just now in the conversation? Why didn’t he win the job last year over Ty Simpson in that three-way battle?
I got so wrapped up in Keelon Russell last season. I thought at some point he’d take over midseason. Instead, Simpson held on, lost in the Rose Bowl. It was a really strange season.
In my offseason power ratings, I took two points off for returning experience and another two points off for second-order win total. Four points total off the PR.
My win total for Alabama is 6.7. That’s way below the market at 8.5 and way below SP+ at 8.3.
I took four points off, and I still come to 6.7.
I’ve been doing this math for 15 years, but this team was not great last year. You can’t just stare at the uniforms and assume it's going to be Nick Saban-era Alabama. It's not.
Russell had four touchdowns in the spring game. If he hasn’t won the job yet, I’m honestly a little shocked. Maybe they’re hoping Mack sparks something, but Russell needs to be the guy because he has legs and an arm.
The bigger issue is the running game, which was atrocious even with Jase McClellan and Jam Miller, and they didn’t bring back offensive linemen. If you can’t run, you need a quarterback who can sit back, dodge edge rushers and push the ball downfield.
And you’re praying Ryan Coleman-Williams is healthy and back to his freshman form to give you a vertical threat. Who has the rocket arm to consistently hit him downfield? That’s a real question.
I don’t have complaints about the defense overall. The secondary is fine, but the linebacker unit got wiped out.
That matters because linebackers call the defense and set everything up. Lose that, and coverage against slants and crossers becomes a huge concern.
Look at the schedule: Florida State comes to Tuscaloosa off a bye in Week 3. That team can beat Alabama.
There are probably six games where the Tide could lose. They’ll be about five-point 'dogs to Georgia. They’re going to be 'dogs to Texas A&M. Tennessee is dangerous because that matchup needs linebackers in coverage, and it’s on the road.
LSU is rough. Travel to Vanderbilt is a coin-flip. The Iron Bowl is the Iron Bowl, so anything can happen.
I’m tired of people with microphones insisting there's no way Alabama wins only eight games. It got wiped last year and can’t run the ball.
My under 8.5 is still at +100. If injuries start to pile up, that number moves even more in the under’s favor.
Don't judge the team by the uniform or the brand. This program is in trouble.
Pick: Alabama Under 8.5 Wins (+100)
I’ve got my LSU number at about 9.1 with the juice, so I’m just a hair above the market. Sixty percent of this roster is brand new.
They finished the offseason with the fifth-best portal haul and the 12th-best recruiting class, per On3. That's a clear signal this roster is being aggressively retooled.
Expect Lane Kiffin’s uptempo, pass-heavy spread to show up on game day, and that plan starts with Sam Leavitt under center.
Leavitt arrives from Arizona State with proven production, throwing 34 touchdowns to nine interceptions across two seasons in Kenny Dillingham’s offense. That kind of efficiency fits exactly what Kiffin wants to run.
Offensive continuity should help, too. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. followed Kiffin from Oxford to Baton Rouge, so the schematic handoffs won’t require a reboot.
The running back room is solid, if unspectacular. Caden Durham and Harlem Berry return with a combined 986 yards and five touchdowns. Those are useful, complementary numbers for a team that plans to live through the air.
The receiver room mixes returners and pieces from the portal.
Tight end Trey’Dez Green comes back after 51 targets last season, and the staff added receivers Winston Watkins (Ole Miss), Jackson Harris (Hawaii) and Eugene Wilson III (Florida) to give the passing game more options and depth.
Harris stands out, in particular. On 73 targets, he posted 2.8 yards per route run and hauled in 16-of-22 contested catches. That’s exactly the kind of weapon Leavitt needs.
The offensive line was a clear focus in the portal as well, with Jordan Seaton (Colorado) and Aliou Bah (Maryland) coming in to beef up the trenches. The unit returns 4,036 snaps collectively (54th) for a decent base of experience up front, even with new faces sprinkled in.
On defense, Blake Baker stays as defensive coordinator, but there’s work to do.
Only two of last year’s top seven tacklers are back. That turnover in production is significant and puts pressure on the newcomers to contribute early.
The biggest defensive additions via the portal are edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen (Ole Miss) and safety Ty Benefield (Boise State). Those two should help address pass rush and back-end depth, but replacing seven top tacklers is no small task.
The schedule has four big SEC home games, and the road slate looks manageable on paper, but Kentucky, Arkansas and Ole Miss on the road will be chaotic. I’m also curious if the Ole Miss hype will be real or if the stadium just blows off after the first quarter.
I’m passing here. I don’t trust this team to beat Texas A&M, Bama or Texas. Lose those three, and you need to sweep everything else. There’s going to be a “Lane” game in there. After all, this is still a staff that picked Austin Simmons to win the starting job last year.
Pick: Pass
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John Mateer looks like a different player this offseason, and that matters more than ever. He’s fully healed from the broken bone in his throwing hand, as his grip strength and throwing motion are back.
The most concrete gauge? Grip tests. When he was cleared for Texas last year, his grip registered a 90. Right before fall camp, he put up a 150. That’s not small-ball improvement; it’s a full recovery, and it shows physically.
If Mateer regains the playmaking we saw at Washington State, the Heisman chatter makes sense. Odds floating around are in the 20-1 or 30-1 range.
Realistically, a College Football Playoff-caliber season — say a 10-2 record and a CFP berth — puts him squarely in the conversation, especially with the Oklahoma voters in New York.
Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle enters Year 2 of his system at Oklahoma and Year 4 with Mateer dating back to Washington State.
Slot receiver Isaiah Sategna III returns after a breakout season that saw him rack up 102 targets and 2.2 yards per route run. He’s a clear safety valve in the passing game.
Virginia transfer Trell Harris also joins the group after socring five touchdowns with 2.2 yards per route run last season.
The line brings experience, ranking third in FBS in returning snaps. That’s veteran continuity up front, bolstered by fifth-year transfer E’Marion Harris from Arkansas.
The defense, meanwhile, is legitimately elite.
Head coach Brent Venables’ unit returns one of the highest-rated defenses in the SEC, led by linebacker Kip Lewis, tackle David Stone and EDGE Taylor Wein. Stone generated 26 interior pressures last season, a big number for an interior player.
Oklahoma ranked top-10 in Rushing Success Rate allowed, Line Yards allowed, Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed. That’s a defense built to control the line of scrimmage and end opponent possessions.
The schedule is brutal, but the defense can neutralize a lot of those matchups.
Oklahoma is underrated in the market, and the win total and pecking order in the SEC don't necessarily reflect how good this team could be.
Pick: Oklahoma to Make College Football Playoff (+210)
Pete Golding gets the promotion, moving up from defensive coordinator to head coach after that run to the College Football Playoff semifinals. His team enters the year with defensive continuity even as a few pieces shuffle.
Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss won a motion to play this season despite an earlier NCAA ruling. He took over Week 3 against Arkansas and finished last year with a 22:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Chambliss is a real dual-threat signal-caller who's excellent on designed runs, dangerous outside the pocket and can throw with anyone in the country.
New offensive coordinator John David Baker is expected to keep much of the Lane Kiffin/Charlie Weis Jr. playbook tailored to Chambliss’ strengths.
Offensive line experience is a real plus with 4,791 returning snaps (23rd in FBS), and the run game looks safe with Kewan Lacy back after 24 rushing touchdowns and more than 1,000 yards after first contact.
The passing game is the bigger question because they lost five of their top six pass-catchers. Deuce Alexander is the lone returning target with significant volume at 68 targets, but they’ll need new playmakers.
Defensively, expect continuity under Golding with Bryan Brown taking over as DC.
Four of the top five tacklers return, including interior disruptor Will Echoles. As a junior, he generated 39 pressures from the interior, had 6.5 sacks and six batted balls in 2025 — numbers you usually expect from the edge, not the middle.
Add Suntarine Perkins back at the hybrid "jack" spot and two-time All-Big 12 linebacker Keaton Thomas from Baylor, and the front seven looks like it can really hassle quarterbacks.
I project 7.2 wins against a market win total of 7.5. That means you’re basically wagering they need five losses to cash the under. If the defense cooks, they’ll stay competitive.
But the schedule gives you plenty of paths to five losses.
Realistic loss candidates include Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma. They’ll also be short underdogs hosting LSU and have a tricky spot against Florida in Week 4. I’m planning to bet Florida that week if the line stays sensible.
The one game that could swing everything is the opener at Louisville. Cardinals running back Isaac Brown is dealing with minor strains and isn’t practicing; without clarity on his status, I can’t confidently handicap that game or the season win total.
Auburn, Georgia and Oklahoma all lined up in a row with no bye week is another brutal stretch.
Pick: Pass
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Marcel Reed is back, and that matters because he has flashed big-time arm talent, but the turnover profile is worrying.
Reed has 26 career big-time throws against 35 turnover-worthy plays. Five of those turnover-worthy plays last year came against South Carolina, and they draw a rematch in Week 10.
Reed also finished last season with six interceptions in his final three FBS games against South Carolina, Texas and Miami, so there’s a real question about whether that was fatigue, an injury or something that needs fixing in the offseason.
On offense, Mario Craver is as deadly as advertised. He averaged 3.3 yards per route run on 85 targets and finished with just over 900 receiving yards. He's a bona fide go-to weapon.
The offensive line brings back a lot of experience, too, with 4,449 returning snaps (34th in FBS), anchored by center Mark Nabou Jr. and shored up further by portal additions.
The backfield is a concern. Rueben Owens II averaged just 2.9 yards after first contact and produced only 15 rushes of 10-plus yards last season. He needs to take a step forward for this offense to run at peak efficiency.
Defensively, three of the top four tacklers return, and the secondary looks like the most experienced unit. Safeties Dalton Brooks and Marcus Ratcliffe are the leaders back there.
The portal added a tone-setting edge presence in Northwestern transfer Anto Saka, which helps at the line of scrimmage.
The schedule shapes the projection. The Aggies open with three home games against Missouri State, Arizona State and Kentucky before a road test at LSU. Other likely wins on the slate include Arkansas, at Missouri, The Citadel, and they’re expected favorites against South Carolina and Tennessee.
That’s eight games you can reasonably pencil in.
After that, you need at least one coin-flip victory to push into the nine-win range. My projection lands at about 9.4 wins.
I’m taking the over on 8.5. I think they snag one of those big toss-ups, and if I had to bet on where it comes, I’d pick the Alabama game.
Pick: Texas A&M Over 8.5 Wins (+100)
Five-star true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon hasn’t been officially named the starter before fall camp. Redshirt freshman George MacIntyre and Colorado transfer Ryan Staub are in line to compete for the job as well.
The offensive line looks like the real deal. Guards Jesse Perry and Wendell Moe, along with tackle David Sanders Jr., give them a sturdy front. The Vols rank 10th nationally in returning offensive line snaps.
Head coach Josh Heupel’s wide-stretch offense will live in the hands of Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews outside after they combined for 170 targets and 10 touchdowns last season.
Running back DeSean Bishop is a genuine bell-cow back who averaged 3.6 yards after first contact and 16 rushing touchdowns. He was essentially a red-zone cheat code last season.
On defense, new coordinator Jim Knowles brings back the top four tacklers from last year and added tackle Xavier Gilliam from Penn State via the portal.
Penn State transfer linebacker Amare Campbell is the splash addition. He racked up 83 tackles last season under Knowles in Happy Valley before following him to Knoxville.
Ultimately, the O-line is legit and should allow them to run from Day 1 while the freshman quarterback gets his feet under him in games like Furman. Kennesaw State isn’t a real concern. Everything changes when Texas comes to town on Sept. 26, though.
This isn’t the old Tennessee offense that had wideouts averaging 2.5-plus yards per route run. I’m not seeing that level from Staley and Matthews. There are numbers that suggest this offense needs more seasoning.
I’m also hunting for upset spots, and I still think Tennessee can attack Alabama’s linebackers. My gut says the Vols' big moment comes the third Saturday of October.
I project the Volunteers at 7.3 wins, just under the market win total of 7.5.
Pick: Pass
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Jon Sumrall enters as the new head coach at Florida, and he immediately pulled off a nice coup, bringing Buster Faulkner from Georgia Tech in as offensive coordinator and Brad White from Kentucky as defensive coordinator.
That’s a staff that should change the look of both sides of the ball.
The quarterback battle is wide open. Georgia Tech transfer Aaron Philo figures to have the inside track after following Faulkner, but he’s fighting redshirt freshman Tramell Jones Jr. and true freshman Will Griffin for the job.
That’s a storyline to watch in camp.
The offensive line returns a lot of experience, ranking 26th in FBS in returning offensive line snaps, which should help whoever wins the QB job.
Running back Jadan Baugh is a red-zone weapon with 15 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons and 65 forced missed tackles in 2025.
Vernell Brown III comes back as the top target, with 58 looks and 500-plus receiving yards last year.
Defensively, expect White to bring multiple fronts and an aggressive one-gap, attack-style scheme. He’ll give offenses trouble with looks that include a zero nose, a shaded nose and a 3-technique, designed to mess with offensive identifying.
Six of the top eight tacklers return, including defensive tackle Brendan Bett, so the unit won’t be starting from scratch.
Now, my win total projection comes in right on 7.5. When Sumrall got hired and Faulkner followed, I thought Florida would be a popular upset pick. The number has settled around 7.5, though, and the quarterback uncertainty makes it hard to fully back UF.
Philo should have the edge because of his familiarity with the system, but I can’t quite get there on confidence.
Still, I’ll 100% be betting Florida against Ole Miss. I can only hope Byrum Brown and Alex Golesh beat Florida in Week 3. I want as few question marks as possible before that matchup.
Pick: Florida ATS vs. Ole Miss
Missouri is shaping up to be this year’s South Carolina — a team that looked a lot better on paper last season than it actually was.
Austin Simmons was tabbed the starter at Ole Miss, but the opening weeks didn’t go smoothly. In his first two games against Georgia State and Kentucky, he threw four interceptions and lost two fumbles.
Under pressure, Simmons had 10 dropbacks and produced four turnover-worthy plays. That's just a rough sample that gave the job to Trinidad Chambliss.
On the ground, though, Ahmad Hardy is a nightmare to bring down. He rushed for north of 1,600 yards and averaged a massive 4.6 yards after contact, ranking as the most elusive back in the FBS.
The junior has been remarkably productive and secure with the ball with 29 career touchdowns to just six fumbles dating back to his time at ULM in 2024.
The Tigers’ line is a clear strength, led by blindside tackle Cayden Green. They return 4,077 offensive line snaps, good for 52nd in FBS, which helps explain the ground success.
That said, the receiving corps looks thin. In fact, only one of last year’s top four pass-catchers comes back.
Back in 2023, Kirby Moore’s arrival from Fresno State felt like a perfect match. He’d been doing great things there, and the offense he inherited in Columbia had the pieces to succeed: weapons, a quarterback and momentum.
Now, Moore is gone, and they're not set up for success like they were back then.
Opponents are going to load the box and shift pressure to the left side of the line to take away Hardy’s legs. If defenses can neutralize his running, a lot of this Missouri offense gets exposed.
Defensively, experience is a concern.
The unit returns only 51% of its experience, well below the FBS average. Only two of last season’s top 15 tacklers are back, and there’s almost no experience at defensive tackle.
The Tigers did add Robert Woodyard Jr. as a transfer middle linebacker, but the line play up front remains an open question.
When shopping win totals, under 6.5 at about +100 is available. I’m projecting 5.9 wins, and I’m not even sure this is a bowl team.
Pick: Missouri Under 6.5 Wins (+100)
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Head coach Alex Golesh is flipping the script at Auburn, moving to an uptempo spread after inheriting a Hugh Freeze offense that chewed nearly 30 seconds per play.
That’s a drastic pace shift, and it immediately reshapes how this roster will be asked to operate.
Quarterback Byrum Brown followed Golesh from USF and will be the linchpin. He has piled up 92 all-purpose touchdowns over four seasons and has topped 1,000 rushing yards in two different years.
Brown’s dual-threat profile fits an uptempo attack; he can create with his legs and finish in space.
Still, the backfield takes a hit.
Auburn loses almost every running game contributor except Jeremiah Cobb, who rushed for 969 yards and produced 24 explosives in 2025. Cobb also has some pass-game chops after recording 11 receptions, making him the most experienced returning receiving option out of the backfield.
In an offense that will ask for pace and space, Cobb becomes a clear bell-cow.
The portal adds depth at receiver, too. South Florida transfers Jeremiah Koger (53 targets last season) and Keshaun Singleton (70 targets) give Golesh immediate perimeter options who know how to handle volume targets.
Up front, the Tigers return 4,136 offensive line snaps, which ranks 46th in FBS. That’s a respectable amount of experience to lean on, but switching to a faster scheme will still test the line’s conditioning and tempo-based techniques.
Defensively, there’s continuity. Coordinator DJ Durkin was retained, and six of the top 12 tacklers are back.
Xavier Atkins stands out as one of the SEC’s better outside linebackers after picking up 68 tackles and 25 pressures last year. Keeping the core of that unit should help smooth the transition while the offense revs up.
The biggest storyline is pace. If Golesh’s spread can click quickly and Brown stays healthy, Auburn’s offense has the playmakers to be dangerous.
The questions are depth in the run game beyond Cobb and whether the line can sustain a much quicker rhythm. Defensively, continuity and guys like Atkins give Auburn a steady base to rely on.
I’m taking the over on 6.5 wins. The six that feel almost locked include Baylor, Southern Miss, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, at Mississippi State and Samford.
To clear that total, the Tigers need just one more from a trio of plausible wins: Florida (USF beat Florida last year), at Tennessee or LSU. Get one of those, and you’re over 6.5.
Pick: Auburn Over 6.5 Wins (-115)
The transfer portal bumped LaNorris Sellers into one of the more experienced offensive line groups in FBS. The unit ranks sixth nationally in returning snaps, which is a big deal for continuity up front.
Sellers himself has been through a lot, though. He has been pressured 326 times on 769 dropbacks in his career and is averaging 3.2 seconds to throw.
The tape shows 32 career big-time throws to 33 turnover-worthy plays, and he’s added 13 rushing touchdowns against 17 fumbles across three seasons.
Offensive coordinator Kendal Briles brings an uptempo mindset and is expected to run packages similar to the KJ Jefferson days at Arkansas.
Three of the top four receivers are back, including Nyck Harbor, who led the group with 52 targets.
Defensively, four of the top six tacklers return. Edge rusher Dylan Stewart comes back as one of the SEC’s better pass rushers after posting 37 pressures and forcing three fumbles last season.
I project 7.1 wins, so I should be playing over 6.5. But there are some issues here.
Why can't Sellers get anybody to protect him? Why can't the Gamecocks get a running game going? There really isn't much worth noting right now.
Sellers has to do it all. There’s a reason he has 33 turnover-worthy plays in his career. There’s a reason he has 13 rushing touchdowns and 17 fumbles.
With Briles' offense, South Carolina will likely speed up the game from roughly 27 seconds per play to about 22.
Defensively, though, they should still be solid. Stewart will be a force on that side of the ball.
Mathematically, I’m a shade over, but I don’t like the offensive line injuries. Sellers keeps having to do it on his own. And Beamer has been on the hot seat for quite a while, so who knows if we'll have an interim coach in Clayton White or Briles by the end of the season?
The injury pattern is frustrating. Every year, it feels like these coaches grind their guys, and the offensive line immediately gets hurt. It’s starting to look systematic.
Pick: Pass
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Head coach Clark Lea and offensive coordinator Tim Beck have their work cut out for them after Diego Pavia’s departure.
The offense now opens fall camp with a four-way QB battle between Jared Curtis, Blaze Berlowitz, Whit Muschamp and Jack Elliott, with Curtis and Berlowitz out in front.
To make matters worse, there's limited proven continuity up front. The offensive line returns just 2,853 snaps together, which ranks 105th in the FBS. Reshaping the scheme to fit whoever wins the job will be a priority.
The backfield looks comfortable enough. Sedrick Alexander returns after rushing for over 1,524 and 21 touchdowns over the last three seasons. Makhilyn Young adds depth after racking up six scores and 414 yards last year.
The receiver room is thinner. Junior Sherrill is the only returning wideout with heavy experience, racking up 54 catches and seven touchdowns last season, so the passing game will lean on him while younger targets try to step up.
Defensively, this team is in good shape. Seven of the top 10 tacklers return, and half the starters are seniors, so continuity and experience are there.
Defensive tackle Yilanan Ouattara is back after appearing in just one game last year, and cornerback Martel Hight returns with four career interceptions to his name. If the defense holds, it gives Lea some time to get the offense figured out.
I project Vanderbilt at six wins, so over 5.5 juiced at -130 gets it close to where I'm at. From a week-to-week perspective, I actually like taking the Commodores' unders.
But with new quarterbacks, big unanswered questions and my win projection sitting within a half-game of the line, I can't touch the season win total.
Pick: Target Weekly Unders
Mark Stoops is out, so Kentucky has turned to Oregon’s offensive architect, Will Stein, as its new head coach. The move signals a clear philosophical shift. Expect an Oregon-style attack that leans heavily on transfers and tempo.
Notre Dame transfer Kenny Minchey was named the starting quarterback before SEC Media Days. Minchey is entering his fourth season but has just 29 career dropbacks and very little game tape to show.
He hasn’t yet produced a play that resulted in a touchdown or a turnover-worthy play. That inexperience is part upside (new scheme, new looks) and part risk for a program used to steadier QB play.
To fuel the new offense, Kentucky added transfers at multiple spots.
On the ground, Texas transfer CJ Baxter and Oklahoma transfer Jovantae Barnes figure to be featured. At receiver, Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) is another transfer expected to play a major role.
The most reassuring unit, though, is the line. The Wildcats rank ninth nationally in returning offensive line snaps, headlined by center Coleton Price and blindside tackle Lance Heard. That continuity is the offense’s clearest bright spot.
Defensively, coordinator Jay Bateman brings a different identity. He’s switching Kentucky from a decade of Stoops’ 3-4 to a 4-2-5 structure with a hybrid “star” defender.
That personnel and schematic change isn’t just formation-deep. Bateman plans to press more with man coverage, a departure from the Cover 3 and Cover 4 shells that were used to limit explosive passing plays.
Schedule-wise, Kentucky has a tricky stretch early, including a trip to Texas A&M, a Week 4 “sandwich” game at home against South Alabama, then a road trip to South Carolina.
Kentucky hosts only four SEC opponents this season — Alabama, LSU, Vanderbilt and Florida — so a lot of the conference slate will be on the road.
Ultimately, the offense will look to be refreshed and more aggressive under Stein, backed by a veteran offensive line and multiple high-profile transfers.
The defense will look different in both look and philosophy under Bateman. Either way, the quarterback situation is a major variable given Minchey’s limited live reps.
Pick: Kentucky Under 4.5 Wins (Lean · +124)
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Mississippi State has named sophomore Kamario Taylor the starting quarterback for 2026. Taylor earned the job after closing last season as the starter in the Egg Bowl and Duke’s Mayo Bowl, and the staff likes what they saw.
Across 78 pass attempts in eight games, he threw just one interception with only one turnover-worthy play while adding nearly 500 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns.
Behind him, the depth chart features AJ Swann (Appalachian State) and Jaden Rashada (Sacramento State) as the primary backups.
Offense-wise, don’t expect a dramatic overhaul. Head coach Jeff Lebby's uptempo, Air Raid identity sticks, and the running game is still going to be a factor.
However, running back Fluff Bothwell had a rough sophomore season compared to his freshman year at South Alabama. His yards after contact dropped from 4.6 to 2.9 in 2025, with a 155-yard and seven-touchdown dip.
Slot receiver Anthony Evans III is back, though, and he’s a reliable target who racked up 91 targets on 1.8 yards per route run last season.
The line returns a solid amount of continuity. Mississippi State ranks 49th in FBS in returning offensive line snaps.
On defense, Zach Arnett is back in Starkville as the coordinator after serving as Mike Leach’s DC before a one-year stint as head coach in 2023.
The Bulldogs are expected to run a 3-3-5 again and return six of their top 12 tacklers, so there’s reason to expect stability on that side of the ball.
Looking at the schedule, the Bulldogs face some road tests early. They’ll be on back-to-back road trips with South Carolina in Week 3, coming after a game against Minnesota.
Mississippi State gets five conference home games, but it'll have to travel to Texas, LSU and Ole Miss. Vanderbilt visits Starkville coming off a bye, which always makes for an extra dangerous opponent.
I’m projecting 4.5 wins, which is basically where the market sits. The two swing games on this schedule that will dictate whether they finish above or below that number are Minnesota and Vanderbilt. Those are the spots that matter.
It's also worth noting that Lebby’s offense will operate at about 18 seconds per play. It’ll be a flag-football tempo that almost doesn't need an offensive line.
Pick: Pass
I wasn't happy with the hiring of defensive coordinator Ron Roberts because he's had so many of these same jobs over the last 10 years and he's usually not welcomed back.
But this program has undergone a complete cultural overhaul — like ripping out the walls and replacing everything top-to-bottom in a spec home. There's a real attitude and high energy.
Head coach Ryan Silverfield is involved with every position group. They’re out there at 3 p.m. in the afternoon, flipping tires in 105-degree heat.
That matters because of what this team had under Sam Pittman. There wasn't this "playing to save our lives" intensity, but that's everyone's mindset right now.
I don't think second-order win total applies when you bring in 60-65 new faces. Nobody in that building knows what happened last year.
Silverfield keeps answering questions about the program's past, but this is a brand-new coaching staff with brand-new players, a brand-new culture and even new gear. The only people hung up on the past are sports bettors handicapping games or fan bases that can't get out of their own heads.
So, let's set all that aside.
KJ Jackson will be the starting quarterback. He's running with the ones, and everyone inside that locker room knows it's his job. Does he have a deep ball? No. Will AJ Hill get playing time? Of course, because he can run the zone read that Silverfield likes.
The guy turning heads in the quarterback room is Hank Hendrix. I asked my locker room source if Hendrix has a real chance to beat out Jackson or Hill. The answer was no, mostly because he's only 17 years old, but he's playing better football than anyone else right now.
Keep an eye out, as we might actually see the 17-year-old get snaps in the first game against North Alabama.
Offensive coordinator Tim Cramsey will lean heavily on that zone read. That will work out well for Braylen Russell and Memphis transfer Sutton Smith. This running game should be successful.
The Razorbacks still need to figure things out at wide receiver. However, I'm not expecting Jackson to throw downfield at all. He's going to manage a balanced, controlled offense under Cramsey.
On defense, the "jack" hybrid linebacker/EDGE position will be handled by Kentucky transfer Steven Soles Jr., who's been a lockdown force throughout fall camp.
Cornerback Jahiem "Joker" Johnson came over from Tulane, where he was a first-team all-conference selection, and he's been a shutdown corner in camp.
Looking at the market, the win total opened at 4.5 for the Hogs and is down to 3.5 everywhere. I'm surprised by this because Silverfield isn't a bad coach; he just wasn't the high-profile hire people wanted.
Cramsey knows how to call an offense, as Memphis proved it could beat quality nonconference opponents.
Where do four wins come from? North Alabama, Tulsa and at Vanderbilt are three. Look at Vanderbilt's schedule, as the Commodores come into the game against Arkansas off a brutal stretch against NC State, Auburn, Georgia and Ole Miss.
Later on, South Carolina comes off games against Oklahoma and Texas A&M, with Georgia and Clemson right after. The Gamecocks will be worn down against Arkansas, too.
There's clear potential for five wins here. If Silverfield pulls off just one upset in the SEC, this is a bowl team. I won't guarantee a bowl game yet, but over 3.5 at -150 feels like an absolute no-sweat bet.
To me, this is a five-win football team. The culture has shifted, the defense has real quality and the offense will find its rhythm by controlling the game on the ground.
Pick: Arkansas Over 3.5 Wins (-150)
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