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Hawaii vs Fresno State Betting Odds & Picks: Back Bulldogs to Rack up Points

Hawaii vs Fresno State Betting Odds & Picks: Back Bulldogs to Rack up Points article feature image

John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Fresno State Bulldogs quarterback Jake Haener

  • Jake Haener returned for Fresno State last week and will look to lead the Bulldogs to a home win over Hawaii.
  • Meanwhile, the Rainbow Warriors have struggled this season and are simply hoping to keep this game close.
  • Kyle Remillard previews the game and shares his best bet below.

Hawaii vs Fresno State Odds

Saturday, Nov. 5
10:30 p.m. ET
Hawaii Odds
-115o / -105u
Fresno State Odds
-115o / -105u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Jake Haener season is back on!

The star quarterback returned from his injury last week in a 32-28 victory over San Diego State. The victory put the Bulldogs atop the West Division with a 3-1 record in Mountain West play.

They have a chance to separate themselves from the pack with a matchup against Hawaii this week.

The Hawaii Warriors were expected to be among the bottom teams in the country. And that has become a reality through the first nine games of the season with a 2-7 record. Collin Wilson’s Power Ratings have Hawaii ranked as the 127th team in the nation.

This matchup has all the fixings for a rout on Saturday night.

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Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Are Bad Everywhere

It’s been tough sledding for Hawaii, which has come away with just two victories in its nine games this season. The Rainbow Warriors defeated FCS Duquesne by just 10 points before beating an underwhelming Nevada program.

The program opened the season with three losses by a combined margin of 131 points. Its recent losses have been a bit more competitive but have come against Colorado State, Wyoming and San Diego State. Not the stiffest of competition.

That has led Hawaii to being outscored by 19 points and outgained by 125 yards of total offense against FBS opponents this season. There aren’t many positive things to say about this program. The offense struggles to consistently move the ball, and the defense can’t stop a nosebleed.

Defensively, the group ranks 120th in scoring defense (36 ppg) and 128th in yards per play (7.0). It starts with the inability to stop the run, allowing 6.5 yards per rush attempt, which ranks dead last in the country. Through the air, the group isn’t much better allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt.

Hawaii will have to turn this game into a shootout if they want to stay competitive.

But the offense is horrific. Sophomore quarterback Brayden Schager is completing just 56% of his passes for an average of 5.8 yards per attempt. He’s tossed six interceptions to go with six touchdowns on the season. They will need to find success behind the run game that averaged 4.4 yards per carry.

Title Hopes Alive for Fresno State Bulldogs

Fresno State kept its hopes alive through the last month after Jake Haener was injured against USC.

The program went 2-2, but only one of those losses came to a Mountain West opponent. The program now sits tied for first place in the conference's West division after its 32-28 victory over San Diego State last week.

Without Haener starting under center, the offense averaged 316 yards per game. With him at the helm, that number has increased to 465 yards per game. That’s not a shock, as Haener is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the nation.

Backup quarterback Logan Fife was acting more as a game manager and tossed two touchdowns to six interceptions in his four weeks as the starter.

But now with Haener back, the Bulldogs' hopes for a Mountain West crown are alive and well. The senior quarterback is completing 73% of his passes while averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt.

He’s in for a big day against a Hawaii secondary that is allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 100th in the nation.

The Fresno defense should have no issues shutting down a Hawaii offense that ranks 117th in the nation in scoring. The group will need to focus on slowing down the running game since the Rainbow Warriors' passing offense has become nonexistent.

Hawaii vs Fresno State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Hawaii and Fresno State match up statistically:

Hawaii Offense vs Fresno State Defense
Rush Success2946
Line Yards6991
Pass Success11575
Pass Blocking**71105
Finishing Drives12072
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Fresno State Offense vs Hawaii Defense
Rush Success31120
Line Yards82124
Pass Success1990
Pass Blocking**115118
Finishing Drives97109
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling12656
PFF Coverage11538
SP+ Special Teams9372
Seconds per Play25.4 (40)26.6 (74)
Rush Rate45.5% (113)49.4% (88)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Hawaii vs Fresno State Betting Pick

This will be Haener’s second game back from injury, and last week showed us that he had little rust. He completed 34-of-45 passing for 394 yards and three touchdowns against a solid San Diego State defense.

Haener is poised to put up big numbers against a horrific Hawaii defense that ranks among the bottom of the country in nearly every advanced metric.

Hawaii will need to score points to keep up with the high-powered Bulldogs offense. But that is a big ask for an offense that ranks outside the top 100 in both yards per play and points per game.

This line opened at Fresno -22.5 and has jumped up five points since for a good reason. Fresno State is back atop its division in the Mountain West, and now it will look to pour it on in this matchup with its star quarterback at full strength.

Pick: Fresno State -27.5 ⋅ Play to -28

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