The Iowa State Cyclones take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Iowa State is favored by -21 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1650. The total is set at 55.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa State vs. Arkansas State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 13, 2025.
Iowa State vs Arkansas State Prediction
- Iowa State vs. Arkansas State Pick: Iowa State -20.5
My Arkansas State vs. Iowa State best bet is on the Cyclones spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa State vs Arkansas State Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -108 | 55.5 -108o / -112u | -1650 |
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -112 | 55.5 -108o / -112u | +950 |
- Iowa State vs Arkansas State point spread: Iowa State -21
- Iowa State vs Arkansas State over/under: 55.5 points
- Iowa State vs Arkansas State moneyline: Iowa State -1650, Arkansas State +950
Iowa State vs Arkansas State Preview
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Taking Advantage of Opportunities
Through three games, we have a pretty good idea of what Iowa State is this year. The Cyclones lucked out in Ireland with a bizarre game, returned home and took care of business against South Dakota and won their first CyHawk game in Ames since 2011.
Iowa State enters this game 3-0 against the spread on the season.
Despite playing two power-conference rivals, quarterback Rocco Becht carries an unblemished six passing touchdowns to zero interceptions, plus an additional rushing score.
He owns the Big 12's highest passing grade, per PFF, and he's spreading the ball around. Three players have at least 10 targets — tight ends Benjamin Brahmer and Gabe Burkle, and wide receiver Brett Eskildsen — and seven have at least six targets.
Defensively, Iowa State has been good enough, though it's a unit likely to come to light later on. Kansas State couldn't stop tripping over its own feet, South Dakota was vastly overmatched and Iowa self-inflicts with — stop me if you've heard this one before — poor offensive play calling.
The front three can be moved off the line of scrimmage. The Cyclones have given opponents opportunities, but they've all missed said opportunities.
This may not come back to haunt Iowa State until mid-October or later, but it's something to file away.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview: Significant Mismatch
Arkansas State suffered a big blow to its offense when starting running back Ja'Quez Cross tore his ACL last week, ending his season. Without Cross, Arkansas State scored just 14 points in a blowout loss to Arkansas.
The Red Wolves were dominated up front and committed some costly turnovers that led to Razorback scores. Outside of the first quarter, it was about as bad as bad gets for Arkansas State. This game wasn't played in Fayetteville, either — it was a neutral-site contest at Memorial Stadium in Little Rock.
Jaylen Raynor is a fun player when Arkansas State can match roster talent. He's not the quarterback to elevate this team to overcome those talent and size deficiencies, though.
Last week, he averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt (125 yards on 21 completions!) and just 38 rushing yards on 12 attempts. This week, he faces another power-conference opponent with a roster advantage.
Arkansas State's track record against such opponents isn't great. Over the last two seasons, the Red Wolves suffered 56-14, 52-7 and 73-0 losses (Arkansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma); a 28-18 win came over a seriously flawed Michigan team early in the season that never got its offense going.
We can revisit Arkansas State once more manageable games surface, but it's severely outmatched here.
Iowa State vs Arkansas State Pick, Betting Analysis
The Arkansas game is a tough data point, but Iowa State is an opponent that rates similarly to the Razorbacks. There were just five total punts in that game, which included 21 drives.
It's going to be hot in Jonesboro on Saturday, with highs reaching the upper-90s. It's the lone time the Red Wolves play at Centennial Bank Stadium from Weeks 2-5.
Oftentimes, targeting a team on the road following a big rivalry win is a great spot to fade that squad situationally. I strongly advise caution in this scenario, as Iowa State has covered eight of the last nine games following CyHawk (and handily covered after the Kansas State game earlier this year).
Matt Campbell has done an excellent job segmenting weeks while in Ames.
It appears Iowa State's power rating hasn't changed much since coming back from Ireland. I personally have improved the Cyclones by a point, and they sit about a half-point better than Arkansas entering this week.
Centennial Bank Stadium should be challenging for a new capacity record this week. But is a juiced crowd enough to keep a top-15 team at bay?
Iowa State discarded Arkansas State 52-7 just last season. That was a better Arkansas State team and about an equal Iowa State team, from what we've seen early.
Heading into a bye, I expect Campbell to secure a no-doubt victory to prepare for conference play.
Pick: Iowa State -20.5
