The Liberty Flames take on the Old Dominion Monarchs in Norfolk, Virginia. Kickoff is set for 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Old Dominion is favored by 16 points on the spread with a moneyline of -750. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Liberty vs. Old Dominion prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 27, 2025.
Liberty vs Old Dominion Prediction
- Liberty vs. Old Dominion Pick: Liberty +16 (-110, bet365)
My Old Dominion vs. Liberty best bet is on the Flames to cover a number that's ballooned too far. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Liberty vs Old Dominion Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +525 |
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -750 |
- Liberty vs Old Dominion point spread: Old Dominion -16
- Liberty vs Old Dominion over/under: 51.5 points
- Liberty vs Old Dominion moneyline: Liberty +525, Old Dominion -750
Liberty vs Old Dominion Preview
Liberty Flames Betting Preview
Let's call a spade a spade: Liberty is not a very good football team right now.
The Flames were advertised as a Group of 5 superteam with talent laced throughout the roster, and that's led them to a 1-3 record with zero FBS wins and a near-disaster against Maine.
The offense is broken, and the starting quarterback is hurt.
Ethan Vasko exited Liberty's Week 4 loss against James Madison and was seen in a sling in the second half. At his point of exit, Vasko was only 4-for-10 passing for 37 yards, and neither of the relief freshman quarterbacks showed much life. Michael Merdinger went 2-for-6 for 21 yards, and Ethan Houck went 1-for-5 for 17 yards.
The situation is dire.
But Liberty's offense is built on the run. This season, four players have double-digit carries, with Evan Dickens leading the way. However, Vasko was a big part of that run game. Both Merdinger and Houck rushed the ball in the second half to some success.
Turnovers plague this offense, as highlighted in Liberty's 23-13 loss at Bowling Green, which featured four of them.
Defensively, Liberty still has juice. It held James Madison to 10 points in the first half, but missed opportunities and turnovers have led to some notable points being scored on them in fourth quarters (34 through three FBS games).
The losses up front have resulted in Liberty getting pushed around in the ground game. Jacksonville State's Cam Cook rushed for nearly 200 yards, and James Madison picked up over 225 yards as a team.
Fortunately, the remainder of Liberty's schedule doesn't have many daunting opposing run games. But it's a weakness teams are assuredly aware of.
Old Dominion Monarchs Betting Preview
I'm not here to call Old Dominion fraudulent, but some inflated numbers are helping it out early in the season.
Playing only three games thus far (a win over a struggling Virginia Tech team and FCS North Carolina Central, plus a two-touchdown loss to Indiana) helps the numbers, but I can't help but tag them as inflated.
The final score against Indiana looks impressive enough, but did Old Dominion really "hang with" the Hoosiers?
Indiana gained 79% of available yards, but went 0-for-2 on fourth down, fumbled a ball away, and missed a field goal. The Monarchs ran just 43 plays and benefited from two long touchdown runs from quarterback Colton Joseph (one at the end of the game down 27-7). The final score was misleading.
Joseph is a capable runner and a good quarterback for the system. Running back Trequan Jones has proven to be an injection of electricity into the run game this year. He's rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last two games without breaching 10 carries. Explosive runs have been the Monarchs' savior.
Despite losing All-American linebacker Jason Henderson to medical retirement, Old Dominion's defense has been a bright spot this year. It has evolved into the popular bend-don't-break model, where everything is kept in front of the secondary, forcing the opposing offense to excel on late downs.
So far, Old Dominion's opponents have not been excellent on late downs, combining for 0-for-6 on fourth down.
But is relying on teams going 0-for on fourth downs a sustainable model? I'm not convinced.
Liberty vs Old Dominion Pick, Betting Analysis
The opening line was wrong.
Old Dominion opened as an 8.5-point favorite, which ballooned to 16. Some of that can be attributed to Vasko not playing, but much of it was betting action.
The weather in Norfolk isn't looking great around kickoff, with a strong chance of rain. There have been dozens of weather delays in 2025, though lightning doesn't appear to be an issue as of Thursday.
Is Old Dominion really eight points better than the initial market assessment? How many points is Vasko worth?
Based on the performance and tendencies of both him and the backups, I wouldn't downgrade Liberty more than a couple of points. And I don't think Old Dominion and Liberty are more than a full touchdown different at this point in the season.
Old Dominion's strength of record is misleading after playing above expectations against Indiana — the Hoosiers' postgame win expectancy, according to SP+, was 90.5% — and beating up on a Virginia Tech team that was clearly mailing it in.
Meanwhile, was Indiana's 53-point blowout over Illinois a reason to upgrade Old Dominion that much?
Quite simply, the line has moved too far.
Perhaps this'll be a game to reset expectations on Old Dominion, and maybe the Monarchs are as legit as its 11% chance to make the College Football Playoff suggests, according to ESPN's latest national projections. But I really doubt that high-end result.
Liberty's pace is slow enough, and its second-level defenders are good enough, to keep Old Dominion in check. I'm taking the points with a road underdog that's beaten Old Dominion by 23.3 points per game over the past three meetings.
Don't forget about Old Dominion under Ricky Rahne. The Monarchs adore one-score finishes, having played in 19 such games over the past two seasons.
Pick: Liberty +16 (-110, bet365)
