Indiana is undefeated at 15-0 and one win away from completing one of the most unlikely championship runs college football has ever seen.
The Hoosiers entered the season at 100-1 odds to win the national title — and were closer to 200-1 at some sportsbooks during the summer — making their appearance in the National Championship game historically rare before a single snap was played.
This season marked the first College Football Playoff semifinal without a team inside the preseason top four in title odds, and Indiana became just the fourth team since the CFP began to reach the semifinal with 100-1 odds or higher.
Only one of those teams has ever advanced to the title game before — TCU in 2022 — and none have ever finished the job.
Biggest CFP Title Longshots to Reach the Semifinal
- 200-1: TCU (2022, lost final)
- 150-1: Cincinnati (2021, lost semifinal)
- 100-1: Michigan (2021, lost semifinal)
- 100-1: Indiana (2025)
Indiana now stands as just the third team since 2001 with preseason odds of 100-1 or longer to reach the National Championship game, joining Auburn in 2013 and TCU in 2022 — both of which fell short on the final stage.
A True Underdog National Championship Game
Indiana’s opponent, Miami, entered the season at 30-1 odds to win the title, creating a championship matchup that almost never happens in the modern era.
In fact, this will be the first College Football Playoff National Championship game in which both teams opened the season at 10-1 odds or higher.
The last time college football saw anything close to this was in 2010, when Auburn and Oregon — both 25-1 or longer — met for the title.
If Indiana finishes the job, it would become the second-longest preseason odds champion across the six major sports leagues since tracking began:
Longest Preseason Odds to Win a Title
- NFL: Rams, 150-1 (1999)
- MLB: Twins, 80-1 (1991)
- NCAAB: UConn, 80-1 (2022)
- NHL: Hurricanes, 60-1 (2005)
- NCAAF: Auburn, 50-1 (2010)
- NBA: Warriors, 28-1 (2014)
Only the 1999 Rams would rank ahead of Indiana.
Indiana's Program Turnaround
Indiana’s season has been built on moments that simply had never happened before.
The Hoosiers won the Big Ten Championship, beating Ohio State after entering the year at 35-1 odds to win the conference — snapping a 30-game losing streak against the Buckeyes in the process.
They followed that by beating Alabama, 38-3, ending a drought that once defined the program. Before this season, Indiana held the longest bowl or playoff win drought among Power 4 teams, with its last postseason victory coming in the 1991 Copper Bowl.
Just three seasons before head coach Curt Cignetti arrived, Indiana went 2-10, 4-8 and 3-9. Under Cignetti, the Hoosiers are now 26-2 straight up.
Betting, Results and the Cignetti Effect
Cignetti’s impact shows up as clearly in the betting markets as it does on the field. Since 2000, no head coach has been better against the spread, posting a 34-17 ATS record.
When listed as a favorite, Cignetti is 40-3 straight up and 29-14 ATS as a head coach. At Indiana, he's 23-0 straight up as a favorite and has won 24 consecutive games outright in that role.
Indiana has also captured the Heisman Trophy this season behind quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who opened at 55-1 odds.
Over the past decade, only Lamar Jackson in 2016 and DeVonta Smith in 2020 entered the season with longer preseason odds before winning the award.
The National Championship Setting
Indiana enters the National Championship game as a road favorite, with the line opening around -7.5 and moving to -8.5 or -9 — notable given the game will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, effectively a home environment for the Hurricanes.
Historically, that hasn’t mattered much.
Since 1976, favorites in the National Championship game are 37-17 straight up and 30-23-1 ATS (via Brad Powers). The last six favorites have won outright and covered, and 15 of the last 18 have won the game outright.
If Miami were to pull the upset as a 9-point underdog or larger, it would rank as the third-biggest upset in National Championship history over the past 40 years, behind only Ohio State over Miami in 2003 and Oklahoma over Florida State in 2001.
Indiana is one win away from history — and from turning one of the longest shots college football has ever seen into a perfect, undefeated championship season.
