The Louisville Cardinals take on the Miami Hurricanes in Miami Gardens, Florida. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Miami is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -575. The total is set at 50.5 points.
Here’s my Louisville vs. Miami prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 17, 2025.
Louisville Cardinals vs Miami Hurricanes Prediction, Picks
- Louisville vs. Miami Pick: Louisville +14 or Better
My Miami vs. Louisville best bet is on the Cardinals to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Louisville vs Miami Odds, Spread, Lines
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 49.5 +100o / -120u | +360 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 49.5 +100o / -120u | -500 |
- Louisville vs Miami Spread: Miami -10.5, Louisville +10.5
- Louisville vs Miami Over/Under: 49.5
- Louisville vs Miami Moneyline: Louisville ML +360, Miami ML -500
Louisville vs Miami College Football Betting Preview
Louisville Cardinals
Louisville enters this game slightly banged up, particularly in the front seven and on the offensive line.
Linebacker Stanquan Clark’s absence due to a lower-leg injury leaves a leadership and tackling void in the middle of the defense.
Offensive tackle Tyrone Sylvester has been nursing an undisclosed injury but may return after the team’s bye week, which would help stabilize protection against Miami’s front.
Tight end Nate Kurisky, who has missed time with a hand injury, is trending toward a return that would bolster Louisville’s intermediate passing attack and red-zone efficiency.
Louisville’s offense does not rely on overwhelming athleticism or tempo. Instead, it operates efficiently, ranking slightly above the national average in passing and rushing EPA at +0.03 in each category. The Cardinals gain 46.7% of available yards per drive, a sign that they consistently move the ball even without explosive plays.
Against a defense as stout as Miami’s — which ranks 10th nationally in EPA per Rush and 35th in EPA per Pass — that kind of steady production is the key to survival. The battle on early downs will define whether Louisville can hang around.
The Cardinals post a +0.02 EPA per play on early downs, suggesting they can stay on schedule often enough to avoid obvious passing situations. Miami thrives on dictating tempo with its defensive front, but if Louisville can generate modest success on first and second down, it can force Miami’s linebackers into more conservative positioning.
Sustaining drives through manageable downs should keep Miami’s pass rush from dominating the game.
Louisville’s situational efficiency is also encouraging. The offense converts nearly 49% of its third- and fourth-down attempts, one of the more reliable marks in the ACC. However, the Cardinals’ average third-down distance of 7.9 yards is concerning.
They cannot afford to rely on long-yardage conversions against a defense that allows opponents to succeed on just one-third of third-down attempts. The goal will be to stay balanced, avoid predictable passing sequences, and utilize the short passing game and screens to neutralize Miami’s pressure packages.
Field position could subtly tilt the matchup toward the Cardinals. Louisville begins its drives near its own 29-yard line on average — a respectable figure that allows the offense to operate methodically rather than desperately. If the Cardinals can flip field position with a few sustained drives and protect the football, they can force Miami to work longer fields, which shortens the game and favors the underdog.
Miami Hurricanes
The defensive side of the ball is where Louisville’s strengths truly emerge.
The Cardinals possess one of the most suffocating pass defenses in the nation, ranking first nationally in EPA per Pass allowed at -0.40.
That spells more trouble for the Miami offense than many may deem. Miami, while talented, has often been inconsistent on offense.
Louisville’s defense excels at limiting explosive plays, allowing opponents to gain just 29.6% of available yards, the tenth-best mark in the country. Miami, conversely, gains more than half of its possible yardage per drive, ranking 36th. That contrast represents a philosophical clash: Miami’s offense thrives on chunk gains, while Louisville’s defense is built to eliminate them.
If the Cardinals can keep the ball in front of their safeties and force Miami to drive the field's length, their chances of covering improve dramatically.
Early-down control could swing the momentum. Miami ranks 33rd nationally in Early Downs EPA at +0.12, while Louisville’s defense ranks 17th at -0.14. If Louisville can consistently win first and second down, Miami will be left with third-and-medium situations, where the Hurricanes’ conversion rate of 48% could drop against Louisville’s solid coverage unit.
The Cardinals’ ability to disguise blitzes and rotate safeties late has caused problems for opposing quarterbacks, often resulting in hurried throws and drive-killing incompletions.
While quarterback Carson Beck and receiver depth led by Freshman sensation Malachi Toney provide threats across the field, Louisville’s physical corners and rangy linebackers allow it to match up well in space.
If Miami’s offensive line shows even slight breakdowns in communication, Louisville should get home more often than not.
The Hurricanes must remain patient, take the underneath routes, and avoid turnovers — a challenge against a defense that is this efficient. Louisville can capitalize on its methodical offensive approach and chew the clock if Miami's rhythm stalls for even a quarter.
Louisville vs. Miami NCAAF Week 8 Pick to Bet
Miami may ultimately win the game, but the statistical gap between these teams does not justify a full two-touchdown spread.
Louisville’s pass defense is elite, and its balanced offensive approach should keep the game within striking distance.
Miami’s offense is talented but not dominant, and the Hurricanes’ lack of discipline and occasional inconsistency on early downs make them vulnerable to a physical, assignment-sound opponent like Louisville.
Expect the Cardinals to frustrate Miami’s rhythm, control possession, and win the battle of field position often enough to remain competitive deep into the fourth quarter.
This matchup has all the makings of a 27-20 or 28-17 type of result.
Pick: Louisville +14 or Better
