Louisville vs. Florida State Betting Odds & Model Prediction: Keep Fading the Seminoles?

Louisville vs. Florida State Betting Odds & Model Prediction: Keep Fading the Seminoles? article feature image

Christopher Hanwinckel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Louisville

  • Get the latest Louisville vs. Florida State betting odds and our model prediction below.

Louisville at Florida State Betting Odds & Prediction

  • Odds: Louisville -6.5
  • Over/Under: 61.5
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

All odds above as of Saturday at 10 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Louisville fans should feel pretty good about where the program is headed right now. Florida State, not so much.

The Seminoles are still a 6.5-point favorite over the Cardinals in the latest betting odds, with the total at 61.5.

Below get our power ratings prediction and get our picks for free in The Action Network app.

Wilson’s Model Prediction for Louisville vs. Florida State

Collin Wilson uses an oddsmaker-style approach to creating his own power ratings that can set a point spread between any two teams on a neutral field. 

Action EDGE members can get his projections for every Week 4 game here, and his full power ratings for all 130 teams are here.

  • Spread: Florida State -9.1
  • Over/Under: 54.9

One Big Thing for Louisville

Despite facing Notre Dame in Week 1, Louisville ranks 27th nationally in yards per play differential. Most of that offensive success has come on the ground, which makes sense given coach Scott Satterfield’s philosophy and roots from Appalachian State.

Florida State ranks 65th in yards per carry allowed and has been better against the run than against the pass. That gives a slight advantage to Florida State, but the Cardinals’ have a pretty unique offense that the Seminoles haven’t seen.

One Big Thing for Florida State

Has Florida State quit?

It’s impossible to know, of course, and we shouldn’t handicap based on that. But there’s probably a reason our mathematical projection is three points higher — no one wants to back Florida State.

Just 33% of bettors at the books we’re tracking have been on Florida State, and the number has fallen from -8.5 to -6.5.

Louisville vs. Florida State Pick

Our college football team is not endorsing a play on either side, but you can get picks from all of our betting experts on this game and many others in The Action Network app.

Odds & Line Shopping for Other Key College Football Games

Michigan State at Northwestern (+9, 37)
Michigan at Wisconsin (-3, 44.5)
California at Ole Miss (-2.5, 41.5)
Tennessee at Florida (-14, 48.5)
Southern Mississippi at Alabama (-38, 61.5)
LSU at Vanderbilt (+24, 62.5)
Miami (Ohio) at Ohio State (-38.5, 56)
UCF at Pittsburgh (+10.5, 61)
Washington at BYU (+6.5, 51)
Auburn at Texas A&M (-4, 47.5)
Notre Dame at Georgia (-14.5, 57.5)
SMU at TCU (-8, 55)
Central Michigan at Miami (Fla.) (-29.5, 48.5)
Kentucky at Mississippi State (-6, 47.5)
South Carolina at Missouri (-9, 61)
Oregon at Stanford (+10.5, 57.5)
Charlotte at Clemson (-41.5, 61.5)
Oklahoma State at Texas (-7, 72.5)
Nebraska at Illinois (+13.5, 62)
Colorado at Arizona State (-8.5, 48.5)
UCLA at Washington State (-18.5, 58)

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