LSU-UCF Betting Guide: Tigers Missing Key Defensive Players in 2019 Fiesta Bowl


USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joe Burrow and Darriel Mack Jr.

Jan 01, 2019, 07:55 AM EST

2019 Fiesta Bowl Betting Odds: LSU-UCF

  • Odds: LSU -7
  • Over/Under: 57.5
  • Date: Tuesday, Jan. 1
  • Location: Glendale, Ariz.
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

>> All odds as of Monday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets

LSU survived the toughest schedule in the nation, winning nine games and earning a spot in a New Year’s Six Bowl.

The Tigers will face UCF, which brings a 25-game winning streak over the last two years. The Knights are missing star quarterback McKenzie Milton, but LSU is down a few key pieces on defense.

Odds Movement for Fiesta Bowl

By Danny Donahue

Despite a majority of bettors laying the points, this line has fallen from LSU -8 to -7. The 45% of bets on UCF have generated 47% of actual dollars.

The over has been a huge hit among bettors, drawing 89% of bets and 93% of money. That’s bumped the total up from 54.5 to 57.5.

Worse Record, Better Team?

By Evan Abrams

LSU is up against a superior opponent when it comes to its win-loss record, but inferior opponent when it comes to the point spread.

Since 2005, this has been a recipe for SEC success in bowl season. When the SEC has a worse winning percentage, but is favored in the bowl game, their teams are 24-9 (72.7%) straight up (SU), winning by 11.4 PPG, and 19-14 (57.6%) against the spread( ATS), covering by 4.9 PPG.

Both Teams Missing Key Pieces

By Steve Petrella

You can’t mention injuries without UCF’s McKenzie Milton, the team’s star quarterback who was lost for the season in late November due to a gruesome leg injury. Backup Darriel Mack Jr. looked great in his place against Memphis, throwing for 348 yards and two scores while running for 59 yards and four touchdowns.

He’ll face a depleted LSU secondary that will be without star cornerback Greedy Williams, starter Kristian Fulton and backup Kelvin Joseph. The defensive line will also be missing two key pieces.

The Tigers will start senior Terrance Alexander and sophomore Kary Vincent, who have both made 20 tackles and broken up three passes this season. Vincent was a top-100 recruit two years ago.

Strength of Schedule Mismatch

By Stuckey

LSU played the toughest schedule in all of college football and held up incredibly well. Central Florida? The 83rd toughest. Those tests throughout the season could pay dividends on the first day of 2019.

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