The Navy Midshipmen take on the Memphis Tigers in Memphis, Tennessee, on Thanksgiving Day. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Memphis is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. Navy, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +170 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 59.5 total points.
Here’s my Navy vs. Memphis prediction and college football picks for Thursday, November 27.
Navy vs Memphis Prediction
- Navy vs. Memphis Pick: Over 58.5 (Play to 61.5)
My Memphis vs. Navy best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Navy vs Memphis Odds
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -112 | 59.5 -105o / -115u | +170 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -108 | 59.5 -105o / -115u | -205 |
- Navy vs Memphis Spread: Memphis -5.5, Navy +5.5
- Navy vs Memphis Over/Under: 59.5 Points
- Navy vs Memphis Moneyline: Navy +170, Memphis -205
Navy vs Memphis College Football Betting Preview
Navy Midshipmen Betting Preview: Offense Brings Heavy Artillery
The conversation around the American Conference as the season closes boils down to Tulane, Memphis and North Texas. Very few of them include a team currently tied for first place in the conference: Navy.
Unfortunately for the Midshipmen, the American includes a tiebreaker for the highest-ranked team, which, at this juncture, is Tulane (No. 22 in the CFP poll), right or wrong.
North Texas holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Navy thanks to a 31-17 Week 10 Mean Green win.
So, a three-way tie atop the conference standings would almost certainly give us Tulane at North Texas. (Tulane plays 1-10 Charlotte, while UNT visits 5-6 Temple.)
But first, Navy must beat an 8-3 Memphis team on the road.
Quarterback Blake Horvath is playing his final few games for Navy, and he’s battling injuries sustained against UNT and USF.
Behind him is the athletic 6-foot-3 Braxton Woodson. Woodson, a junior, stepped in and sealed the victory over USF in Week 12 thanks to a long touchdown run. He’s capable, though a notable downgrade from Horvath.
This offense lives on explosive plays. Back Eli Heidenreich (also playing his final few games) set program history for receiving yards and hauled in over 100 of those in his last game.
Fullback Alex Tecza has seven rushing touchdowns on the season and ripped off a season-long 76-yarder last week. Those two, plus Horvath, make up one of the most explosive attacks in the country.
The Midshipmen boast a 12.7% explosive play rate, among the top five rates in the nation.
Navy’s defense needs some work, though. The Mids rank 117th in Points Per Drive and 92nd in Success Rate; six straight opponents found 30 points.
So long as the offense keeps pace — Navy went 4-2 in those six games — the Midshipmen are alright, but against defenses like UNT and Notre Dame (to be fair, down Horvath), Navy can be held down.
The weakness of this defense is in the secondary. USF took advantage of athletic and physical receivers, something Memphis has.
Memphis Tigers Betting Preview: Defensive Woes to Continue
At one point 6-0, Memphis has fallen out of the American Championship race after losing three of its last five contests.
It started with a shocking loss to UAB as a -24 favorite and most recently included a 38-32 loss to Tulane and a 31-27 defeat at the hands of East Carolina the next week.
The Tigers have dug themselves into unsalvageable holes and allowed long touchdown drives at pivotal moments of the game to drop games they shouldn’t have.
For every Arkansas and USF miracle, Memphis has a 99-yard touchdown drive allowed to UAB to go down two scores late. Frustrating only begins to scratch the surface.
Memphis built its offense on the back of a terrific run game. Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr. make up an explosive duo, while Middle Tennessee transfer Frank Peasant acts as the short-yardage back.
Quarterback Brendon Lewis leads the team with 111 attempts and nine touchdowns. It helps to have a great offensive line blocking for the backfield, but this explosive and multiple attack is what really cranks the gears of the scoring machine.
Meanwhile, it has been a tale of two halves for this Memphis defense.
Against bottom-half offenses, the Tigers suffocate opponents, holding Georgia State, Troy, FAU, Tulsa and Rice to just 14 points per game; those teams own an average rank of 98th in Points Per Drive.
Against the other FBS foes (Arkansas, UAB, USF, Tulane and East Carolina), Memphis has allowed 32.4 points per game, and those offenses average 43rd in Points Per Drive.
Memphis’ final regular-season game comes against Navy, which ranks 10th.
But the catch here is the split between run defense and pass defense. Memphis ranks 16th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and sixth in Line Yards but in the bottom fifth nationally in passing explosiveness allowed and 109th in Passing Success Rate allowed.
The front seven is stout and aggressive against the run, but it doesn’t generate much of a pass rush. The Tigers rank 117th in Sack Rate (4.3%).
Navy vs Memphis Pick, Betting Analysis
Memphis opened as a -4.5 home favorite in its regular-season finale over Navy. That was bet up to -6.5 early on.
Given the movement and approach to a key number, Navy bettors can afford to be patient with the only Thanksgiving Day college football game on the slate.
Both teams come off a bye week for this game.
I’m not sold on Memphis’ defense. The Tigers don’t allow many quality drives (32.8% is 16th nationally), but when they do, teams are efficient at scoring (3.7 points per quality possession allowed is 90th).
Navy is a team that regularly generates quality drives (20th) and couples that with a lethal explosiveness both with and without Horvath.
The Midshipmen are known for their rushing attack, but the passing game is also efficient thanks to a great scheme from coordinator Drew Cronic.
Navy ranks 18th in EPA Per Pass, and 14% of its passes qualify as an explosive play, among the best in the nation.
For example, look to the recent USF game. Six plays went for 20-plus yards, and four of those went for 60-plus. Horvath found Heidenreich wide open for an 82-yard gain, and almost had him on another 40-yarder, but that was overthrown.
Explosive potential on the ground from Tecza and Horvath (and Woodson, when needed) opens up the passing game.
Memphis doesn’t field enough of a pass rush to disrupt Navy’s passing game — they're often long-developing throws downfield — so I expect some big plays from the aerial attack on Thursday.
Memphis’ success also stems from the run game, and that opens up the passing game.
Navy doesn’t have the defensive backs to defend big bodies like Cortez Braham Jr. (824 yards) or the athletic receivers like Jamari Hawkins (17.4 yards per reception).
Four of Memphis’ last five games combined for at least 55 points, and three of the last four combined for 58-plus. The last four full games Horvath played in went for at least 60 on Navy’s end.
Rather than take the short number under +7 with Navy, I’m looking to take over the point total. The weather will cooperate for this to be a high-flying game.
Pick: Over 58.5 (Play to 61.5)
Navy vs Memphis Betting Trends
