Navy at UConn Picks & Betting Odds
- Spread: Navy -27.5
- Over/Under: 54.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
Navy vs. UConn Line Movement
UConn may be getting plenty of points, but it’s not seeing much love in the betting market. Three-quarters of bettors have been willing to lay the lofty spread with Navy, and they’re making up just about the same amount of money. As a result, this line has increased a bit throughout the week, going from around 26 up to 27/27.5.
The total has done the opposite, and the discrepancy between bets and dollars looks to be playing a significant role. Only 39% of bettors have taken the under, but they’ve generated 73% of actual money, dropping this number from 56 to 55. — Danny Donahue
Collin Wilson: How I'm Playing This Over/Under
For Navy to keep pace with SMU in the AAC West, the Midshipmen must take care of business on the road against Connecticut.
The Huskies are 4-4 against the spread (ATS) on the season and have covered the number in their past two games. It isn't uncommon to see UConn give up 56 points, but the numbers suggest the Huskies could have some big plays up their sleeves.
UConn will likely have problems getting anything going on the ground as the Huskies rank 110th in rushing success and are going up against a Navy defense that ranks 12th in the same category. That being said, UConn ranks 12th in rushing explosiveness, so if the Huskies can get into the second level of Navy's defense, we could see some big plays.
Navy's biggest advantage is in the red zone. The Midshipmen are No. 1 overall in touchdowns per red zone attempt. Navy has reached paydirt in 87.5% of its trips to the red zone. Conversely, the UConn defense ranks 130th in opponent red zone touchdowns, allowing a rate of 84.5%. It would be shocking to see a Navy field goal in this game.
Because of Navy's success inside the 20 and the slight chance UConn breaks off an explosive play, I think there's slight value backing the Over, despite our projections suggesting this total should be 51.
The Pick: Over 54.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
