All the media wants to do is talk about the big, bad, blue-blood programs.
Who’s going to make the college football? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Athens, Ohio, and Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
While our fields may be blue, grey, or teal, the money that can be won on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As The Action Network’s resident Group of 5 Guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often-overlooked teams and matchups, while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
Here are three games I have circled for Week 2. Let's dive into my NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Saturday, September 6.
UConn vs Syracuse Pick
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | +200 |
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | -250 |
UConn is the adopted son of the Group of 5, and we are riding with the Huskies against Syracuse.
Last year’s 9-4 record was not a fluke for the Huskies. They dominated in every victory while also losing by five to Duke, three to Wake Forest, and seven to last year’s Syracuse team, which is much better than this year’s version.
UConn quarterback Joe Fagnano returns for his seventh collegiate season after tossing 20 touchdowns to four interceptions last year. While he continues to juggle the position with Wisconsin transfer Nick Evers, the offense is much more effective under Fagnano, who threw for 228 yards and two scores against the Orange last year.
The top two running backs from last year’s squad return (Cam Edwards and Mel Brown), alongside another key back who has recovered from injury (Victor Rosa).
Running the ball has been a strength under head coach Jim Mora, and it should be again this year. The Huskies rushed for 250 yards and four scores in their opener against Central Connecticut, averaging 7.6 yards per carry.
This same group averaged 7.3 yards per carry in last year’s head-to-head matchup with Syracuse — both Edwards and Brown broke off some explosive runs in that game.
Leading receiver Skyler Bell also had a great showing in the Syracuse matchup, pulling in 10 receptions for 113 yards. He reeled in two touchdowns last week.
UConn lost plenty of defensive production from last season, but it also added portal talent on that side of the ball. The Huskies added front-seven players from Iowa State, Nebraska, Virginia, Washington, and Temple (All-AAC linebacker Tyquan King).
Speaking of turnover, Syracuse lost more production than nearly any Power 4 team, ranking 98th nationally in returning production behind one starting offensive player and three starting defensive players.
The Orange lost 45-26 to Tennessee, with App State transfer Joey Aguilar carving them up for three scores.
Even in a 10-win season last year, Syracuse ranked 90th in Success Rate allowed. The Orange won games with an elite passing attack, but that entire group departed in the offseason.
UConn kept this a one-score game last year, and it should keep it closer against a lesser version of the Orange.
UConn does all the little things right, converting in the red zone, getting off the field on third down, and avoiding penalties.
That’s precisely the type of underdog I want to back on the road.
Pick: UConn +6.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Bowling Green vs Cincinnati Pick
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
Full disclosure, I bet Cincinnati at -20.5 and liked it a lot more when it was under 21.
So, while I am more hesitant to lay over three touchdowns, there is still a good chance Cincinnati blows the doors off Bowling Green.
The Bearcats suffered a close season-opening loss to Nebraska after a back-breaking interception from Brendan Sorsby. However, after playing last Thursday, they have had two extra days to prepare for Bowling Green.
The Falcons secured a 26-7 win in Eddie George’s head coaching debut, but they didn’t look impressive. They managed just 26 points against Lafayette, and that included a kick return touchdown.
Bowling Green returned just one starter from last year’s defense, and the offense lost stud tight end Harold Fannin, who was essentially the entire offense. The Falcons also lost their entire running back room and top two receivers from last year’s offense.
Journeymen quarterback Drew Pyne threw for just 109 yards in his first start for the Falcons, and they totaled just 268 yards of offense against an FCS defense.
Cincinnati has a talented quarterback in Sorsby. He threw for 18 touchdowns last season and added nine scores on the ground. He rushed for 96 yards and two touchdowns against Nebraska’s defense and should be able to carve up the Bowling Green front.
Sorsby and the Bearcats have had extra time to think about that devastating interception and surely want to get that taste out of their mouths here.
I am not a believer in Scott Satterfield in general, but he has done a good job in these spots. Satterfield-led teams are 26-17-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
The Bearcats should blow out the Falcons in front of their home crowd.
Pick: Cincinnati -22.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Western Kentucky vs Toledo Pick
| W. Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -285 |
Tyson Helton is running it back with the same play that worked so well for the Hilltoppers a few years ago when Bailey Zappe took over the college football world.
Helton went back to the FCS level to pluck a high-scoring offensive coordinator and quarterback pairing, bringing Rick Bowie and Maverick McIvor from Abilene Christian.
The combo helped Abilene Christian finish fourth among FCS teams in total offense after McIvor threw for 30 touchdown passes with just eight interceptions.
The wide receiver room always seems to be loaded for the Hilltoppers, and they added FCS All-American Matthew Henry from Western Illinois. He already seems to be McIvor’s favorite target, along with K.D. Hutchinson. Henry is averaging 21.0 yards per catch through two games.
So far, the plan is once again working, as Western Kentucky has scored 96 points across its first two games behind 400 passing yards per game. McIvor leads the country with eight passing touchdowns and no interceptions.
Toledo has boasted one of the Group of 5’s better defenses over the past few years, but the Rockets continue to lose players to the NFL, and that’s eventually going to catch up to a MAC school.
The entire front seven from last year’s squad departed. Western Kentucky won’t run the ball down Toledo’s throat, but McIvor will have plenty of time in the pocket.
That said, Toledo’s secondary is still strong, so can the Rockets hang with Western Kentucky’s air raid for four quarters?’
If they can’t, will Tucker Gleason and the Toledo offense keep up?
Gleason is an OK MAC quarterback with a talented group of wideouts, but I don’t love him. He posted just 12 Big Time Throws to 17 Turnover Worthy Plays last season while completing just 60% of his passes. He posted the MAC’s sixth-best PFF Passing grade.
Jason Candle-led teams are just 18-23 against the spread as a favorite of 10 points or less, and just 1-4 ATS in non-conference games as a favorite of 10 points or less, including last year when the Rockets lost outright to Western Kentucky.
Pick: Western Kentucky +7 (-110, BetMGM)
