The New Mexico State Aggies take on the New Mexico Lobos in Albuquerque, NM. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on Mountain West Network.
New Mexico is favored by -14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. The total is set at 53.5 points.
Here are my New Mexico State vs. New Mexico predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 27, 2025.
New Mexico State vs New Mexico Prediction
- New Mexico State vs. New Mexico Pick: Under 54.5
My New Mexico vs. New Mexico State best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico State vs New Mexico Odds
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
- New Mexico State vs New Mexico point spread: New Mexico -14
- New Mexico State vs New Mexico over/under: 53.5 points
- New Mexico State vs New Mexico moneyline: New Mexico State +400, New Mexico -550
New Mexico State vs New Mexico Preview
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview: Offense With Many Issues
There are two usable data points for New Mexico State early this season:
- A 21-14 win against Tulsa
- A 49-14 blowout loss at Louisiana Tech
While the quality of the Tulsa win is certainly debatable, one thing is not, and that’s the offense needs work.
Last year’s quarterback situation for the Aggies re-defined rock bottom in the FBS, so New Mexico State brought in Fresno State/Montana transfer Logan Fife. While he's an objective upgrade, he hasn’t been very good. Fife has three picks, four batted passes and a completion rate below 55%.
It’s not entirely his fault. The Aggies’ receiving corps has the fifth-most drops in the FBS, but Fife has also been indecisive and inaccurate for much of his first three games.
There’s no run game to speak of, and nobody in the country is worse on early downs than the Aggies (sub-40% success rate on first and second downs). The best word to describe this offense is: ugly.
Defensively, we have a mixed bag. New Mexico State forced three turnovers against Tulsa and three additional three-and-outs, but it was also out-gained in the game, resulting in a 46% postgame win expectancy, per SP+.
The following week, New Mexico State actually out-gained Louisiana Tech, but three short fields and a fumble-six led to 49 points piled on.
On a down-to-down basis, the Aggies' defense is fine. It benefits from a slow offensive pace and the fewest plays run from scrimmage, but the run defense is solid.
The unit forces turnovers and hasn’t yet been the reason for a loss. But the offense is so bad that this team can’t be taken very seriously, even at 2-1.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Legitimate Bowl Threat
When Bronco Mendenhall left for in-league rival Utah State, it appeared New Mexico was left for dead. A fun quarterback in Devon Dampier left for Utah, as did creative play caller Jason Beck.
However, new hire Jason Eck (not Beck with a twiddly mustache – this is a completely different guy) has managed to make New Mexico formidable through three games.
The Lobos are 2-1 with a dominant 25-point win at UCLA and a respectable 34-17 loss at Michigan. The offense is still creative and a product of Eck’s time at Idaho (plus importing Idaho quarterback Jack Layne, among others). New Mexico is a legitimate bowl threat this season, if nothing more.
Of course, the UCLA game needs to be taken in context. The Bruins fired their head coach just hours after the loss. It was evidently a quitting game for everyone in Pasadena. But credit to the Lobos for sticking it to UCLA when the opportunity presented itself.
New Mexico’s offensive line has been excellent. Few teams fare better up front on the ground than the Lobos, and that takes into account the game against Michigan. It’s one of the Mountain West’s best as it stands today.
New Mexico could get a boost in the receiving game, as Keagan Johnson could return this weekend after missing the first three games to injury. Formerly of Iowa and Kansas State, Johnson provides a talent boost in a receiving room that's currently led by tight end Dorian Thomas (26 targets).
The focus remains on the ground, but Layne will at least have a go-to option out wide that's far superior to what he currently works with.
New Mexico State vs New Mexico Pick, Betting Analysis
Welcome to the 115th edition of the Rio Grande Rivalry. New Mexico leads the all-time rivalry series, 75-34-5, but the Aggies have taken two of the last three. New Mexico won this game in a wild 50-40 shootout last year in Las Cruces.
The Lobos opened as an -8.5 home favorite, a number that proved to be far too short, and it now sits at -14.
Trying to chase the line at this point would be foolish. If you jumped on New Mexico early, you likely got a great number. Not to say the Lobos can’t and won’t cover the current number, but it’s bad practice.
Instead, I’m looking to fade a truly abysmal New Mexico State offense. It’s one of the worst individual units in the country and one that hasn’t rushed for 40 yards against an FBS opponent yet (or 80 yards against anyone!).
Fife simply isn’t good enough to offset that and don't expect the Aggies to score many points at all.
New Mexico’s offense is really strong, but New Mexico State is better against the run than the pass, and New Mexico's offense is predicated on running back Scottre Humphrey and the run game.
I expect sustained drives from New Mexico, so I'm targeting the under here. New Mexico State won’t keep up with its half for the total to go over, nor get off the field in time to give its offense enough opportunities.
Pick: Under 54.5
