The North Dakota State Bison take on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in Brookings, South Dakota, for the coveted Dakota Marker Trophy, which also holds playoff seeding implications. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
North Dakota State is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. South Dakota State, meanwhile, is a +3.5 favorite and is +155 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 46.5 points.
Here’s my North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
North Dakota State vs South Dakota State Prediction
- North Dakota State vs South Dakota State Pick: Under 47.5 (Play to 45.5)
My South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
North Dakota State vs South Dakota State Odds
| North Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -120 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
| South Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 +100 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
- North Dakota State vs South Dakota State Spread: North Dakota State -3.5, South Dakota State +3.5
- North Dakota State vs South Dakota State Over/Under: 46.5 Points
- North Dakota State vs South Dakota State Moneyline: North Dakota State -185, South Dakota State +155
North Dakota State vs South Dakota State College Football Better Preview
North Dakota State Bison Betting Preview: Running Through the Missouri Valley
North Dakota State has left no doubt as to who the clear No. 1 team in FCS football is. The Bison are 7-0 and have won every game this season by at least three scores.
Illinois State and Southern Illinois are some of the tougher teams in the Missouri Valley Conference, and the Bison dispatched both of those foes with ease.
Cole Payton has full command of this offense and has completed 74% of his passes, with 11 passing touchdowns and just one interception on the season.
Payton also gets involved in the run game as well, racking up 475 rushing yards and six scores on the ground.
The Bison implement a run-heavy approach offensively, but NDSU has two electric wide receivers who can stretch the field and take the lid off it any time they touch the ball.
RaJa Nelson and Bryce Lance (Trey Lance’s brother) each have four receiving touchdowns this year.
I expect NDSU to take some deep shots against the Jacks' secondary, but this defensive backfield still grades out as the top coverage unit in the Missouri Valley, per PFF.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits Betting Preview: Losing Their Hop
South Dakota State comes in undefeated, but the Jackrabbits found themselves in a dog fight last week on the road against Murray State.
While SDSU did win the game, it came at a cost. Starting quarterback Chase Mason was injured on the opening drives against the Racers and didn't return.
Redshirt freshman Luke Marble did well to lead this team on the road, completing 13-of-21 passes with a pair of touchdowns.
The Jacks have a noticeable decrease in firepower from prior years offensively. We saw plenty of players get poached by FBS programs in the offseason, and many followed previous head coach Jimmy Rogers to Washington State.
They've also made the most of their young, talented roster this season, however, and are poised to position themselves to make a deep playoff run.
Practice was closed to the media this week, and we're not getting much out of the coaching staff as to who's going to start at quarterback. With that said, I'd assume Mason isn't 100% healthy.
But SDSU still runs the ball 62% of the time, led by Julius Loughridge, who's averaging 4.9 yards per carry with 714 rushing yards on the season.
The firepower we saw last season from SDSU has mostly departed, but Alex Bullock and Lofton O’Groske are sure-handed targets, and Jack Smith can score any time he touches the ball.
The offensive line has given up more negative plays than we're accustomed to seeing from a Jackrabbit line, and this will be a stiff test this week against the Bison.
North Dakota State vs South Dakota State Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm taking the under in this matchup. I bet this one earlier in the week, and I would play under down to 45.5.
Both of these teams are going to run the football a ton. Football is a 10-yard war, and we will see that in the trenches on Saturday night.
Neither running back room is going to wow you with the speed and explosiveness of running the football, but they will run the ball efficiently.
Pace should be slow; neither one of these teams wants to run tempo, and we should see the play clock tick down quite a bit.
Both of these defenses are completely capable of controlling this game.
The Jacks rank No. 1 in the MVFC in overall defense, third in tackling grades and first in overall pass coverage.
NDSU ranks first against the run and first in pass rushing grades. It has also registered 19 sacks and 45 tackles for loss this season for a defense that hasn't allowed more than 17 points in a game this season.
Both of these defenses execute situationally, as the Jacks are allowing just 26% of third downs to be converted successfully, while the Bison are allowing 30%.
NDSU has allowed just seven red-zone touchdowns this season, while the Jacks have allowed only five. I expect the defenses to control the game in a low-scoring grinder.
Take the under here.
Pick: Under 47.5 (Play to 45.5)
North Dakota State vs South Dakota State Betting Trends
