Louisville vs Notre Dame Odds, Prediction, Picks | Week 6 Betting Guide
David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman.
Louisville vs Notre Dame Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | +200 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | -250 |
The Louisville Cardinals welcome the Notre Dame Fighting Irish into town for a ranked-on-ranked prime-time matchup Saturday night. No. 10 Notre Dame is ranked higher and favored, but No. 25 Louisville is the only team entering this game undefeated.
Both of these teams' new starting quarterbacks have settled into the offense and also have excellent running backs to rely upon.
Let's dive into the Louisville vs. Notre Dame odds and make a betting prediction.
The Louisville Cardinals are flying high to start the season. In Year 1 under new head coach Jeff Brohm, the Cardinals have an unblemished record and find themselves occupying the final spot in the AP Top 25.
A well-balanced offense has driven Louisville's success, as the Cardinals rank eighth in Rushing Success Rate and 31st in Passing Success Rate.
Brohm is known for a creative passing game, but Louisville's best offensive player has probably been running back Jawhar Jordan, who ranks 12th in the country with 510 rushing yards and six touchdowns.
When it comes to the passing game, Cal transfer quarterback Jack Plummer is settling in well and wide receiver Jamari Thrash has already amassed 444 yards and five scores.
Louisville's defense is also well-rounded, ranking 20th in Rushing Success Rate and 28th in Passing Success Rate.
Ashton Gillotte has been a big reason why the Cardinals have defended the pass so well, as he already boasts five sacks, which is tied for fifth in the country.
Notre Dame's past two games have been weird.
It lost a game it probably should have won against Ohio State, then escaped Durham with a close win over Duke last weekend. After all that, the 5-1 Fighting Irish sit No. 10 in the AP Poll, though it won't get any easier in Louisville.
If there are two constants with this team, it's the running game and the defense.
On offense, Notre Dame's strong offensive line has paved the way for Audric Estime to lead the nation with 672 rushing yards. Estime is a home-run hitter with seven touchdowns, including the game-winner against Duke.
NOTRE DAME WITH THE STUNNER pic.twitter.com/b5u6Vzc5Ze
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) October 1, 2023
Any time a team gives up 17 points to Ohio State, it's fair to say it has a good defense. Obviously, Notre Dame would have preferred a different result in that game, but there's no doubting the proficiency of the Fighting Irish defense.
Notre Dame ranks 11th in Defensive Pass Success Rate and is allowing just 13 points per game. More importantly, it has yet to put up a bad performance. The Fighting Irish will need another good showing to slow down Louisville's high-powered offense.
As for new transfer quarterback Sam Hartman, his play has been about as good as his beard, which is to say he's played very well. Hartman has been great with 1,458 yards, 14 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Even though Notre Dame is a run-first team, Hartman gives the offense much more potential.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Notre Dame and Louisville match up statistically:
Notre Dame Offense vs Louisville Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 24 | 20 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 19 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 28 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 75 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 28 | 18 |
Louisville Offense vs Notre Dame Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 31 | 11 | |
| Havoc | 43 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 44 | 21 | |
| Quality Drives | 21 | 17 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 84 | 7 |
| PFF Coverage | 44 | 79 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 101 | 59 |
| Middle 8 | 67 | 78 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.7 (112) | 28.2 (86) |
| Rush Rate | 56.3% (34) | 56.5% (36) |
Louisville vs Notre Dame
Betting Prediction, Picks
Whoever wins this game will have earned it. Based on the eye test, resumes and advanced metrics, these teams appear to be evenly matched.
That's why Notre Dame being favored by 6 or 6.5 points is interesting. The sports betting markets clearly like Notre Dame's overall roster, and that makes me think the Fighting Irish will win and cover.
Asking the Cardinals to stay unbeaten feels like a lot. They almost lost to NC State last week, and it might be pushing it to expect a sixth consecutive win. Plus, it's not like Louisville will have some massive home-field advantage because Notre Dame's fans won't have to travel far.
The Cardinals won't go out easy, but in the end, I expect Notre Dame to cover.
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