College Football Pick, Prediction for Ohio vs Akron: Bet This MAC Over/Under
Photo by Tony Ding/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke.
Ohio vs Akron Odds
Read on for updated Ohio vs Akron odds, along with our pick and prediction in our and college football betting preview for Friday, Nov. 24.
The Ohio Bobcats travel down the road to take on the Akron Zips on Black Friday. The Bobcats have won 14 of the last 15 matchups between these teams, but without much to play for, Akron could give them a game.
Both of these teams play great defense, which could end up making this a closely contested, low-scoring matchup.
At 8-3, the Bobcats were again one of the better teams in the MAC this season, but they couldn't punch a ticket to the conference title game.
Ohio's success this season can largely be credited to its defense, which is ranked 16th in SP+. The Bobcats are allowing just 16.1 points per game, tied for seventh-best in the FBS.
Ohio’s defense ranks 15th in success rate, ninth in havoc rate, and third in opponent finishing drives. The Bobcats have been good against both the run and the pass, where they rank 12th and 20th in success rate, respectively.
The offense has not been quite as dominant. Ohio is 47th in success rate but just 92nd in finishing drives and 131st in explosiveness. This has caused the offense to rank 113th offensively in SP+.
They run is fairly balanced, with a slightly higher rush rate than pass. Ohio ranks 78th in rushing success, 111th in rushing PPA and 132nd in rushing explosiveness.
Through the air, they have been strong, ranking 22nd in passing success rate and 49th in PPA. However, they still lack explosiveness, ranking 121st in passing explosiveness allowed.
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Akron’s season has been tumultuous, to say the least. The Zips (2-9) have played much of the season without starting quarterback DJ Irons, who tore his ACL at the end of September.
Akron was competitive in many games before Irons’ injury, but they have seemingly rolled over in many of their games since. Since losing Irons, the Zips are 1-5, averaging just 14.3 points per game in regulation over that stretch.
The Zips have the 132nd-rated offense, according to SP+. They rank 117th in offensive success rate, 128th in explosiveness, 131st in finishing drives, and 107th in havoc allowed.
Akron passes the ball at the 10th-highest rate in FBS, but is 110th in passing success rate and 124th in passing PPA. Things aren’t much better through the air, where the Zips are 96th in rushing success rate and 116th in rushing PPA.
The defense has been keeping this team afloat. The Zips rank 28th in defensive success rate and 76th in finishing drives. However, they have struggled by giving up big plays, ranking 124th in explosiveness allowed.
The passing defense has been among the best in the conference. They are 18th in passing success rate allowed and 24th in PPA allowed. On the ground, they are 43rd in rushing success rate but just 78th in rushing PPA allowed.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio and Akron match up statistically:
Ohio Offense vs. Akron Defense
Akron Offense vs. Ohio Defense
Pace of Play / Other
|Special Teams SP+
|Seconds per Play
Each team has been led by their impressive defenses this season. Ohio’s defense will be the best on the field on Friday and should be able shut down Akron’s offense.
On the other side of the ball, Akron’s passing defense takes away the primary strength of the Ohio offense. Without that advantage, the Bobcats could also struggle to put points on the board.
Both Akron and Ohio play at a slower-than-normal pace on offense, ranking 73rd and 116th in seconds per play, respectively.
This total is already low at 41.5 but I believe it is still too high for these two teams.
The Akron forecast calls for winds of around 11 mph on Friday, which isn’t crazy high but certainly won’t hurt this pick either.
I would take this under at 41.5 and play it down to 38.5.
Pick: Under 41.5 (Play to 38.5)
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